Previous discussion on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DgzdLzDGsqoRXhCK7/transformative-agi-by-2043-is-less-than-1-likely https://www.lesswrong.com/p

Previous discussion on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DgzdLzDGsqoRXhCK7/transformative-agi-by-2043-is-less-than-1-likely https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DgzdLzDGsqoRXhCK7/transforma... and EA Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ARkbWch5RMsj6xP5p/transformative-agi-by-2043-is-less-than-1-likely https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ARkbWch5RMsj6xP5p/... Both previous discussions contain multiple independent refutations of the core claim (the argument stacks quite a few errors on top of each other).