4 ms·
The first question, I think, would be: if 40% will never have children, and if that remains true into the far future, how long before there are no Japanese left
by NoMoreNicksLeft 3y ago
The first question, I think, would be: if 40% will never have children, and if that remains true into the far future, how long before there are no Japanese left?
But the immediate followup question should definitely be, why would it stay at 40%, when it can go higher? Every woman who (for whatever reason) does not have children exerts a cultural influence on those around her, normalizing the behavior. Making it seem less out of place. Inadvertently teaching young girls within their social sphere that this is option, an acceptable one.
If this number does go higher, the problem accelerates... it's not necessarily some theoretical demise of their nation centuries from now.
- dukeyukey 3y agoThat probably won't happen. The families that have children will die out, and the next generation will be almost exclusively have parents that chose to have children even when cultural norms were turning against it. That'll probably lead to a rebound in fertility, which funnily enough we're already seeing - the lowest it's been was 1.26 in 2005 and since then it's gone up a bit. But we'll need to give it another few decades first.
- swagasaurus-rex 3y agoI predict that fertility will remain below sustainable levels due to housing market being concentrated in fewer hands