My opinion on this may be worthless since I have worked in AI since 1982, and I am guilty of enjoying living through several AI hype cycles. After seeing surpr

My opinion on this may be worthless since I have worked in AI since 1982, and I am guilty of enjoying living through several AI hype cycles. After seeing surprising advances in techniques for deep models, then attention+transformer models, I think there is a lot of progress still to be made with cooperating LLMs. I have a simple example of this in the last book I wrote. I have no idea what new ideas will work, but I would be very surprised if every 4 or 5 years new and fresh ideas don’t occur to achieve really good reasoning, counterfactual reasoning, etc. Anyway, putting the chance of transformative AGI below 1% for the next 20 years seems wrong to me.