It appears like a very poor analysis overall. These closing arguments suggest lack of deep thinking: “Consider Alphabet, the parent company of Google DeepMind.

It appears like a very poor analysis overall. These closing arguments suggest lack of deep thinking: “Consider Alphabet, the parent company of Google DeepMind. Alphabet is not constrained by financial capital: as of March 2023, Alphabet had $115B of cash on hand.202 Alphabet is also not constrained by human capital: as of March 2023, Alphabet had 191,000 employees.203 If Alphabet wanted to, it could easily hire more AI researchers and allocate more software engineers to AI research infrastructure. But it chooses not to. Why? This deliberate choice presumably implies that Alphabet management doesn’t believe there is enough ROI from hiring more smart people to accelerate progress on AGI research. To us, this suggests that Alphabet management is bearish on the likelihood of transformative AGI by 2043. We also see this as a stronger signal than public markets, as Alphabet management is likely much more informed about AGI progress than the average stock trader. Another implicit signal of low likelihood of transformative AGI is the comparatively low valuation of AGI companies. Consider Anthropic, which reportedly raised money in early 2023 at a valuation of ~$4B. $4B is ~0.004% of world product each year. If transformative AGI is soon able to do most human work, we expect it to be worth multiples of today’s world product. Supposing transformative AGI is worth $100T/yr, and Anthropic has a 10% chance of capturing 10% of the value for an expected duration of 10 years, that would imply a valuation of $10T (before time discounting). $4B is less than 1/1,000th of $10T, which seems to imply that Anthropic and its investors do not collectively believe that Anthropic has a chance of inventing transformative AGI by 2043 and capturing its value.”