3 ms·

One thing I've been considering is the existence of the 401k or basically the Bogle strategy as a whole. Both expect yearly gains over time, due to increasing

One thing I've been considering is the existence of the 401k or basically the Bogle strategy as a whole. Both expect yearly gains over time, due to increasing amounts going into the pools. But what happens when the elders start drawing down that money, and there isn't a base to replace it? Going forward, we could actually see such values shrink, I think? The uber rich aren't Bogleheads, after all.

nly 3y ago
It's unlikely. As people live longer but want to retire at a similar age to their parents demand for risk assets is going to be even higher in the future. I mean, as much as interest rates have dramatically risen recently, real yields on 30 year UK government debt (as measured by the inflation-linked gilt yield) are at ~1%. That's just not going to cut the mustard given how little people are able or willing to save in to their retirement fund. To give you an idea, the difference between a 1% real return and a 4% real return, investing monthly over a 30 year horizon, is having 64% more in retirement.