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I’ve always felt there is a similarity to day traders or people who overanalyze stock fundamentals. There comes a time when data analysis becomes astrology…

andirk 3y ago
> There comes a time when data analysis becomes astrology. Excellent quote. It's counterintuitive but looking at what is most likely to happen according to the datasets presented can often miss the bigger picture.
- reacharavindh 3y ago
  This. It is often the scope and context that determines logic. It is easy to build bubbles and stay comfy inside. Without revealing much, I asked a data scientist whose job it is to figure out bids on keywords and essentially control how much $ is spent on advertising something at a specific region about negative criteria. As in, are you sure you wouldn’t get this benefit even if you stopped spending the $ and his response was “look at all this evidence that our spend caused this x% increase in traffic and y% more conversions” and that was 2 years ago. My follow up question was - okay, now that the thing you advertised is popular, wouldn’t it be the more organic choice in the market, and we can stop spending the $ there? His answer was - look at what happened when we stopped the advertising in this small region in Germany 1.5 years ago! My common sense validation question still stands. I still believe he built a shiny good bubble 2 years ago, and refuses to reason with wider context, and second degree effects.
  - robertlagrant 3y ago
    The people who spend on marketing are not incentivised to spend less :)
philsnow 3y ago
> There comes a time when data analysis becomes astrology... or just plain numerology
bee_rider 3y ago
Leos are generally given the “heroic/action-y” tropes, so if you are, for example, trying to pick Major League Baseball players, astrology could help a bit. Right for the wrong reasons is still right.
- edmundsauto 3y ago
  Right for the wrong reasons doesn't give confidence it's a sustainable skill. Getting right via randomness also fits into the same category.

andirk 3y ago

> There comes a time when data analysis becomes astrology. Excellent quote. It's counterintuitive but looking at what is most likely to happen according to the datasets presented can often miss the bigger picture.

reacharavindh 3y ago
This. It is often the scope and context that determines logic. It is easy to build bubbles and stay comfy inside. Without revealing much, I asked a data scientist whose job it is to figure out bids on keywords and essentially control how much $ is spent on advertising something at a specific region about negative criteria. As in, are you sure you wouldn’t get this benefit even if you stopped spending the $ and his response was “look at all this evidence that our spend caused this x% increase in traffic and y% more conversions” and that was 2 years ago. My follow up question was - okay, now that the thing you advertised is popular, wouldn’t it be the more organic choice in the market, and we can stop spending the $ there? His answer was - look at what happened when we stopped the advertising in this small region in Germany 1.5 years ago! My common sense validation question still stands. I still believe he built a shiny good bubble 2 years ago, and refuses to reason with wider context, and second degree effects.
- robertlagrant 3y ago
  The people who spend on marketing are not incentivised to spend less :)

philsnow 3y ago

> There comes a time when data analysis becomes astrology... or just plain numerology

bee_rider 3y ago

Leos are generally given the “heroic/action-y” tropes, so if you are, for example, trying to pick Major League Baseball players, astrology could help a bit. Right for the wrong reasons is still right.

edmundsauto 3y ago
Right for the wrong reasons doesn't give confidence it's a sustainable skill. Getting right via randomness also fits into the same category.