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>29. (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Program Management) To get an accurate estimate of final program requirements, multiply the initial time estimates by pi... I d
by Modified3019 3y ago
>29. (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Program Management) To get an accurate estimate of final program requirements, multiply the initial time estimates by pi...
I discovered this when my father would come up with some project me and my siblings had to do, such as scrape, sand, prime and paint the house (which thinking back very likely had lead paint).
It would inevitably take roughly 3 times longer than he wanted it to take. And of course being an adult he'd throw a tantrum about it.
- roughly 3y agoA friend used to say “take your estimate, double it, and add 50%.” It’s almost weird that “3x” seems to just be the universal rule.
- bladewolf47 3y agoThe later half of the rule also scales the estimate up by an order of magnitude, would imply tasks taking 30x longer. Guess that makes you quite optimal at those tasks.
- Tuna-Fish 3y agoThat's for the cost estimate, not time.
- hibbelig 3y agoI understood it as: better_time = estimated_time * 3; better_cost = estimated_cost * 10;
- bladewolf47 3y agoI missed that - this makes more sense
- junon 3y agoFor what it's worth, I also missed it the first time around. It's worded a little strangely if you're going through them quickly.
- ace32229 3y agoI think you've misread it, though this is my first time encountering these laws so do correct me. It says to multiply the time by 3x and the costs by 10x
- hoseja 3y agoMaybe it should be e actually? At least I'd pattern-match e into such a relationship.
- psadauskas 3y ago> Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law Hofstadter suggested doubling the scalar and incrementing the units by one. 3 hours -> 6 days, 2 weeks -> 4 months, etc...
- RRWagner 3y agoWhen you have your own kids you'll discover that the secret rule is that it takes 2 kids at least twice as long as it will take their dad (for a variety of reasons; experience, distractions, lack of focus, etc.). 3 kids even longer. A corollary is, "The more people in your group at dinner time at an event, the less likely you'll actually eat that night". ;)