None of this is put in doubt though. Your points about SpaceX's potential for future cost savings and efficiencies are hardly realized today - particularly when

None of this is put in doubt though. Your points about SpaceX's potential for future cost savings and efficiencies are hardly realized today - particularly when considering the length of time that has been spent without a capable manned vehicle. If, fast forward a decade or two and SpaceX is still using today's designs (albeit, upgraded) and actually realized massive savings - then we can talk. However, I'd bet they're going to re-design and build brand new models along the way... There's a reason military aircraft tend to have extreme service lives. It's far cheaper and effective to upgrade and refit/improve existing airframes with modern technology than it is to start from scratch - every single time. Look at the F-35 program. It's not exactly fair because the design goals are vastly different - but upgrading aging F-15's has kept them on the battlefield for 47 years[1], and today they're still a seriously potent air superiority fighter. The F-15's of today are only similar in shape to the originals, however. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-15_Eagle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-15_Eagle