5 ms·

The EV Early Adopter Era Is Over, and Automakers Are Scrambling

20 points by t23 3y ago

ZeroGravitas 3y ago
Seems to be blogspam of this: https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/electric-cars-adoption-rates https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/electric-cars-adoption-rate...
jseliger 3y ago
This is basically nonsense: the U.S. is consolidating around the NACS (Tesla) plug, and it seems only Tesla is shipping NACS cars right now. Other car companies are trying to charge the same amount as Tesla for cars that are going to be plug orphans, and they are not succeeding.
- presidentender 3y ago
  Forgive my ignorance: is an adapter an option?
  - raverbashing 3y ago
    Yes, it is. And every Tesla comes with the adaptor of the more generic plugs
- bdcravens 3y ago
  Many of those cars were cheaper than Tesla before Tesla slashed prices. Also I'm not sure by what you mean by "not succeeding"; there hasn't been a massive decline in non-Tesla sales (since early 2022, Tesla's EV market share dropped from approximately 3/4 of the market down to around 1/2). I'm glad to see some effort toward industry-wide standards, but if anything, it's a suggestion that Tesla is hedging its bets to ensure continued ROI on the infrastructure they have built out even while they lose marketshare.
- mikestew 3y ago
  Other car companies are trying to charge the same amount as Tesla for cars that are going to be plug orphans, and they are not succeeding. "Plug orphans", puh-lease. Like adapters don't exist. I smell nonsense, and it ain't TFA. We actually paid more for a Hyundai than what one can get a Tesla for, and we'd do it again. Because painful as it might be to hear, Tesla isn't the end-all of EVs (not even close, IMO). And we're not the only ones, considering that Hyundai sold more EVs in July than they ever have. I mean, if the charging plug is the selling point, Tesla must be in desperate straits otherwise. (Which I don't believe, but if parent is going to hammer on the type of plug used...)
  - geoelectric 3y ago
    You and I may have enthused Ioniq 5s at each other before on here. I know I had the "paid more than I would have Tesla but still love it" conversation recently. I'm all for my new HI5 that I bought in March too, but I have to admit I had a sinking feeling around the NACS announcement. It's not so much that I'll have to use an adapter as that the EA and CP stations will be even more awkward than they are now with the cables diversified further. And the handful of Tesla stations that are supposed to support adapted CCS don't work reliably with Hyundai's E-GMP platform in general for whatever reason. That's not even to mention that NACS stations all expect the charging port to be on the wrong end of the car, and if you back in the port will be on the wrong side. If nothing else, it brought down my outlook of the car as a 7-10yr vehicle to a 3-5yr one in terms of future proofing, and now that $60k+ outlay I made isn't so satisfying. Yeah, it's surmountable. I'll be fine. The car will be fine. It'll be a hassle but there'll be a solution--too many cars on the road now to not have one. After all, people still drive CHAdeMO Leafs. But if I were buying right now, I probably wouldn't buy anything with a CCS port with obsolescence looming. And since I refuse to buy a car that makes me look away from the road for vital controls (and Elon is both anti-dashboard and anti-HUD for some pants on head stupid reason) that means I'd have stayed out of the market had the announcement come a couple months earlier. Upshot is I absolutely buy that the NACS convergence will have a chilling effect. Whether it's had one this quickly is another story.
    - floxy 3y ago
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Tesla’s continuing monopoly on LFP batteries in America baffles me.
belthesar 3y ago
To be honest, I would love to get an EV, but unless you have access to charging at work or another reasonable location, having an EV effectively requires you to own your own home, and the home needs a garage. Outside of that, you _might_ be able to get away with a L1 charger, and then topping off at a L3 charger after sustained drives, but even then you'd need a mechanism to secure the charger. I know many chargers now lock into the car for safety, but I don't know if that applies to anything other than L3 chargers, and that would only secure car to charger, and not charger to outlet. I own my house, but I don't have a garage, and I don't have enough land to construct one. I could potentially hire an electrician to run a new circuit out to the pole where I have a lamp that is next to my driveway, but there's no feasible way for me to get anything other than L1 charging out there safely, which would get me very little range. However, if you have a townhouse or an apartment, or even if you rent your home, with rare exception of your complex either having chargers or potentially having a deck for you to park in where you might get lucky in negotiating a charger, you're straight out of luck. I'm casually planning the next car purchase in the next year or so. At this point, unless I expect there's a move in the cards that could put me into a house with a garage where installing an L2 charger is feasible, or the amount of range that I need + accessibility of chargers is so ubiquitous that I will be able to reasonably charge the car when I need range, I'm probably looking at a range-extender style hybrid for the next car.
- _hypx 3y ago
  This is why the entire plan is totally ridiculous and ultimately doomed. There is no flexibility on any level. No hybrids, PHEVs, hydrogen cars, etc. Just demanding everyone to look exclusively at BEVs and only BEVs.
- xemdetia 3y ago
  This is where I've been stuck. I have enough money and income to buy and support an EV charger, but the network isn't there yet for an EV to be a primary vehicle. I also would get punished for ptax as well vs stretching the life of a random used car.
- zoky 3y ago
  > I could potentially hire an electrician to run a new circuit out to the pole where I have a lamp that is next to my driveway, but there's no feasible way for me to get anything other than L1 charging out there safely, which would get me very little range. Not saying you’re wrong, but are you sure? I ran a new 240 line out to a post in the middle of the yard to charge a EV with no trouble at all. Run it into a weatherproof outlet box and plug in any off the shelf outdoor EV charger and you should be good to go. If you have to run a new line anyway, there’s no reason you can’t run a line capable of 40 amps at 240v. > However, if you have a townhouse or an apartment, or even if you rent your home, with rare exception of your complex either having chargers or potentially having a deck for you to park in where you might get lucky in negotiating a charger, you're straight out of luck. Not necessarily. In California at least, landlords are required to let tenants install EV chargers in their assigned parking spaces, including running any electrical lines or conduit needed. Granted, you still have to pay for what is effectively a capital improvement on a rental property, but some landlords may be willing to split or subsidize the cost, especially if they can get a tax incentive for doing so.
AniseAbyss 3y ago
[dead]
plantwallshoe 3y ago
I need a new car and really want to buy an EV, but having been shopping around for a while it’s pretty clear that everyone is playing catch up to Tesla. Unfortunately even with my tech salary a model 3 or Y is roughly twice what I am willing to spend on a car. I was excited about the upcoming Equinox EV, but now that Chevy is going NACS in 2025 it seems silly to buy a model that’s outdated before it’s even delivered. I would have grabbed a Bolt but the charging time is atrocious. It would be impossible to ever take it on a longer trip even with L3 charging. I really like the feel of the Niro, but without the tax credit it just doesn’t make financial sense because it’s nearly the same price as the Tesla but with FWD and worse specs.
- Rebelgecko 3y ago
  What are you willing to spend on a car? If you're buying new I don't think cars that are half the price of a M3 even exist (after the tax credit). Even if you're not eligible for the credit and are comparing against a $40k M3, there's only a few cars still below $20k.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    Often people don’t want the base model for various reasons - a reasonable model 3 for me would be in the $40k range, but others wouldn’t want anything less than performance. The Pacifica PHEV was tempting but there are no minivan EVs and they are all way more expensive.
  - plantwallshoe 3y ago
    I need an AWD car since I go skiing a lot, so a Tesla is going to be like 41K after the delivery fee. There are plenty of AWD gas options for under 25k. Not exactly half but nearly. Factor in a 10k down payment and it’s 30k vs 15k and the payments are double for the Tesla + higher insurance. I would go FWD EV if it were cheap enough to justify having it as part of 2 car system, but the only on that heap is the Bolt and it has the aforementioned charging time issue.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
dangus 3y ago
The truth is that if you are in this market, the best choice by far is still Tesla. I notice that in the article the sales situation for Tesla isn’t addressed, just crap automakers like Ford or half-hearted EVs from companies like Mazda. The best competitor is Hyundai which is a shitty buy because it doesn’t have a tax credit. I think it’s also worth pointing out that EVs are exploding in China because those buyers don’t have to worry about long distance driving. They travel the country with the world’s best high speed rail system. When the current EV market just barely competes with ICE cars I think it’s logical for people to really converge around the very best option.
- tooltalk 3y ago
  ... the best choice by far is still Tesla. Tesla was the only choice until a few years ago. The best competitor is Hyundai which is a shitty buy because it doesn’t have a tax credit.<< ever heard of the IRA hoophole? I think it’s also worth pointing out that EVs are exploding in China because those buyers don’t have to worry about long distance driving. It's not that Chinese don't drive long-distance b/c of the HSR, which btw is $1T under water at this point. It's just that their EV programs/subsidies so far favored cheap, low-range, urban EVs -- such as #1 seller, Hongguang Mini EVs with just ~10kWh batteries -- having promoted cheap, inferior LFP under their state industrial policy. China's next challenge is to push EVs in rural area and it won't be nearly as easy.
_hypx 3y ago
The fundamental problem is that we have conflated the EV with the BEV. These are not the same thing. But because we have done that, we've created a car market that is something akin to what we saw in the Communist bloc. Basically, the government is forcing people to buy cars they don't want, or trying to get people to stop buying cars they do want. It's not even paying attention to even basic economics, as cheaper hybrids or PHEVs are heavily dissuaded against. So people who are less well-off and want to participate are instead told to suffer. The whole thing is a doomed process and will only generate resentment.
prewett 3y ago
From the perspective of a single-car, mid to late-mid adopter, EVs right now are a commuter car for homeowners in urban areas. The problem is that they are unsuitable for anyone who: a) rents b) does not have off-street parking c) is not doing city driving d) wants only one car and occasionally drives long distances e) drives medium distances but might get stuck in traffic in winter f) lives somewhere with cold winters g) wants only one car and occasionally drives to remote locations, such as national parks Basically, the recharging situation is just not tenable for an EV to replace a regular car. Waiting thirty minutes to recharge adds up on a long trip, plus there's the uncertainty of how long the wait will actually be, if the charging station is not as fast as advertised. Until these use cases get fixed, EVs are strictly inferior to a regular car. Yes, one could rent a car for some of the infrequent use case, but since a regular car handles them fine, the EV is a less compelling option
- _hypx 3y ago
  Agreed. Like I said elsewhere, we have conflated EVs with the BEV. We are demanding a one-size-fits-all, even when its impossible or too expensive. This is doomed to failure and there must be more flexibility.
- kevin42 3y ago
  I disagree with c, e, and f. I commute 100 miles each way several days a week. I just charge my Model 3 to 100% the night before. I've done this on very cold days in single digit (f) temperatures and literal blizzards. Yes the cold hurts range, but it's enough margin that I rarely worry about it. Some days when I'm running around I'll park at a parking garage for a few hours plugged in to a level 2 charger and it's all topped off.
  - FloatArtifact 3y ago
    Battery loss is quite dependent on the EV and not everybody can afford 58,630 for a model y.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago

20 points by t23 3y ago

Seems to be blogspam of this: https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/electric-cars-adoption-rates https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/electric-cars-adoption-rate...

jseliger 3y ago

This is basically nonsense: the U.S. is consolidating around the NACS (Tesla) plug, and it seems only Tesla is shipping NACS cars right now. Other car companies are trying to charge the same amount as Tesla for cars that are going to be plug orphans, and they are not succeeding.

presidentender 3y ago
Forgive my ignorance: is an adapter an option?
- raverbashing 3y ago
  Yes, it is. And every Tesla comes with the adaptor of the more generic plugs
bdcravens 3y ago
Many of those cars were cheaper than Tesla before Tesla slashed prices. Also I'm not sure by what you mean by "not succeeding"; there hasn't been a massive decline in non-Tesla sales (since early 2022, Tesla's EV market share dropped from approximately 3/4 of the market down to around 1/2). I'm glad to see some effort toward industry-wide standards, but if anything, it's a suggestion that Tesla is hedging its bets to ensure continued ROI on the infrastructure they have built out even while they lose marketshare.
mikestew 3y ago
Other car companies are trying to charge the same amount as Tesla for cars that are going to be plug orphans, and they are not succeeding. "Plug orphans", puh-lease. Like adapters don't exist. I smell nonsense, and it ain't TFA. We actually paid more for a Hyundai than what one can get a Tesla for, and we'd do it again. Because painful as it might be to hear, Tesla isn't the end-all of EVs (not even close, IMO). And we're not the only ones, considering that Hyundai sold more EVs in July than they ever have. I mean, if the charging plug is the selling point, Tesla must be in desperate straits otherwise. (Which I don't believe, but if parent is going to hammer on the type of plug used...)
- geoelectric 3y ago
  You and I may have enthused Ioniq 5s at each other before on here. I know I had the "paid more than I would have Tesla but still love it" conversation recently. I'm all for my new HI5 that I bought in March too, but I have to admit I had a sinking feeling around the NACS announcement. It's not so much that I'll have to use an adapter as that the EA and CP stations will be even more awkward than they are now with the cables diversified further. And the handful of Tesla stations that are supposed to support adapted CCS don't work reliably with Hyundai's E-GMP platform in general for whatever reason. That's not even to mention that NACS stations all expect the charging port to be on the wrong end of the car, and if you back in the port will be on the wrong side. If nothing else, it brought down my outlook of the car as a 7-10yr vehicle to a 3-5yr one in terms of future proofing, and now that $60k+ outlay I made isn't so satisfying. Yeah, it's surmountable. I'll be fine. The car will be fine. It'll be a hassle but there'll be a solution--too many cars on the road now to not have one. After all, people still drive CHAdeMO Leafs. But if I were buying right now, I probably wouldn't buy anything with a CCS port with obsolescence looming. And since I refuse to buy a car that makes me look away from the road for vital controls (and Elon is both anti-dashboard and anti-HUD for some pants on head stupid reason) that means I'd have stayed out of the market had the announcement come a couple months earlier. Upshot is I absolutely buy that the NACS convergence will have a chilling effect. Whether it's had one this quickly is another story.
  - floxy 3y ago

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

Tesla’s continuing monopoly on LFP batteries in America baffles me.

belthesar 3y ago

To be honest, I would love to get an EV, but unless you have access to charging at work or another reasonable location, having an EV effectively requires you to own your own home, and the home needs a garage. Outside of that, you _might_ be able to get away with a L1 charger, and then topping off at a L3 charger after sustained drives, but even then you'd need a mechanism to secure the charger. I know many chargers now lock into the car for safety, but I don't know if that applies to anything other than L3 chargers, and that would only secure car to charger, and not charger to outlet. I own my house, but I don't have a garage, and I don't have enough land to construct one. I could potentially hire an electrician to run a new circuit out to the pole where I have a lamp that is next to my driveway, but there's no feasible way for me to get anything other than L1 charging out there safely, which would get me very little range. However, if you have a townhouse or an apartment, or even if you rent your home, with rare exception of your complex either having chargers or potentially having a deck for you to park in where you might get lucky in negotiating a charger, you're straight out of luck. I'm casually planning the next car purchase in the next year or so. At this point, unless I expect there's a move in the cards that could put me into a house with a garage where installing an L2 charger is feasible, or the amount of range that I need + accessibility of chargers is so ubiquitous that I will be able to reasonably charge the car when I need range, I'm probably looking at a range-extender style hybrid for the next car.

_hypx 3y ago
This is why the entire plan is totally ridiculous and ultimately doomed. There is no flexibility on any level. No hybrids, PHEVs, hydrogen cars, etc. Just demanding everyone to look exclusively at BEVs and only BEVs.
xemdetia 3y ago
This is where I've been stuck. I have enough money and income to buy and support an EV charger, but the network isn't there yet for an EV to be a primary vehicle. I also would get punished for ptax as well vs stretching the life of a random used car.
zoky 3y ago
> I could potentially hire an electrician to run a new circuit out to the pole where I have a lamp that is next to my driveway, but there's no feasible way for me to get anything other than L1 charging out there safely, which would get me very little range. Not saying you’re wrong, but are you sure? I ran a new 240 line out to a post in the middle of the yard to charge a EV with no trouble at all. Run it into a weatherproof outlet box and plug in any off the shelf outdoor EV charger and you should be good to go. If you have to run a new line anyway, there’s no reason you can’t run a line capable of 40 amps at 240v. > However, if you have a townhouse or an apartment, or even if you rent your home, with rare exception of your complex either having chargers or potentially having a deck for you to park in where you might get lucky in negotiating a charger, you're straight out of luck. Not necessarily. In California at least, landlords are required to let tenants install EV chargers in their assigned parking spaces, including running any electrical lines or conduit needed. Granted, you still have to pay for what is effectively a capital improvement on a rental property, but some landlords may be willing to split or subsidize the cost, especially if they can get a tax incentive for doing so.

AniseAbyss 3y ago

[dead]

plantwallshoe 3y ago

I need a new car and really want to buy an EV, but having been shopping around for a while it’s pretty clear that everyone is playing catch up to Tesla. Unfortunately even with my tech salary a model 3 or Y is roughly twice what I am willing to spend on a car. I was excited about the upcoming Equinox EV, but now that Chevy is going NACS in 2025 it seems silly to buy a model that’s outdated before it’s even delivered. I would have grabbed a Bolt but the charging time is atrocious. It would be impossible to ever take it on a longer trip even with L3 charging. I really like the feel of the Niro, but without the tax credit it just doesn’t make financial sense because it’s nearly the same price as the Tesla but with FWD and worse specs.

Rebelgecko 3y ago
What are you willing to spend on a car? If you're buying new I don't think cars that are half the price of a M3 even exist (after the tax credit). Even if you're not eligible for the credit and are comparing against a $40k M3, there's only a few cars still below $20k.
- bombcar 3y ago
  Often people don’t want the base model for various reasons - a reasonable model 3 for me would be in the $40k range, but others wouldn’t want anything less than performance. The Pacifica PHEV was tempting but there are no minivan EVs and they are all way more expensive.
- plantwallshoe 3y ago
  I need an AWD car since I go skiing a lot, so a Tesla is going to be like 41K after the delivery fee. There are plenty of AWD gas options for under 25k. Not exactly half but nearly. Factor in a 10k down payment and it’s 30k vs 15k and the payments are double for the Tesla + higher insurance. I would go FWD EV if it were cheap enough to justify having it as part of 2 car system, but the only on that heap is the Bolt and it has the aforementioned charging time issue.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

dangus 3y ago

The truth is that if you are in this market, the best choice by far is still Tesla. I notice that in the article the sales situation for Tesla isn’t addressed, just crap automakers like Ford or half-hearted EVs from companies like Mazda. The best competitor is Hyundai which is a shitty buy because it doesn’t have a tax credit. I think it’s also worth pointing out that EVs are exploding in China because those buyers don’t have to worry about long distance driving. They travel the country with the world’s best high speed rail system. When the current EV market just barely competes with ICE cars I think it’s logical for people to really converge around the very best option.

tooltalk 3y ago
... the best choice by far is still Tesla. Tesla was the only choice until a few years ago. The best competitor is Hyundai which is a shitty buy because it doesn’t have a tax credit.<< ever heard of the IRA hoophole? I think it’s also worth pointing out that EVs are exploding in China because those buyers don’t have to worry about long distance driving. It's not that Chinese don't drive long-distance b/c of the HSR, which btw is $1T under water at this point. It's just that their EV programs/subsidies so far favored cheap, low-range, urban EVs -- such as #1 seller, Hongguang Mini EVs with just ~10kWh batteries -- having promoted cheap, inferior LFP under their state industrial policy. China's next challenge is to push EVs in rural area and it won't be nearly as easy.

_hypx 3y ago

The fundamental problem is that we have conflated the EV with the BEV. These are not the same thing. But because we have done that, we've created a car market that is something akin to what we saw in the Communist bloc. Basically, the government is forcing people to buy cars they don't want, or trying to get people to stop buying cars they do want. It's not even paying attention to even basic economics, as cheaper hybrids or PHEVs are heavily dissuaded against. So people who are less well-off and want to participate are instead told to suffer. The whole thing is a doomed process and will only generate resentment.

prewett 3y ago

From the perspective of a single-car, mid to late-mid adopter, EVs right now are a commuter car for homeowners in urban areas. The problem is that they are unsuitable for anyone who: a) rents b) does not have off-street parking c) is not doing city driving d) wants only one car and occasionally drives long distances e) drives medium distances but might get stuck in traffic in winter f) lives somewhere with cold winters g) wants only one car and occasionally drives to remote locations, such as national parks Basically, the recharging situation is just not tenable for an EV to replace a regular car. Waiting thirty minutes to recharge adds up on a long trip, plus there's the uncertainty of how long the wait will actually be, if the charging station is not as fast as advertised. Until these use cases get fixed, EVs are strictly inferior to a regular car. Yes, one could rent a car for some of the infrequent use case, but since a regular car handles them fine, the EV is a less compelling option

_hypx 3y ago
Agreed. Like I said elsewhere, we have conflated EVs with the BEV. We are demanding a one-size-fits-all, even when its impossible or too expensive. This is doomed to failure and there must be more flexibility.
kevin42 3y ago
I disagree with c, e, and f. I commute 100 miles each way several days a week. I just charge my Model 3 to 100% the night before. I've done this on very cold days in single digit (f) temperatures and literal blizzards. Yes the cold hurts range, but it's enough margin that I rarely worry about it. Some days when I'm running around I'll park at a parking garage for a few hours plugged in to a level 2 charger and it's all topped off.
- FloatArtifact 3y ago
  Battery loss is quite dependent on the EV and not everybody can afford 58,630 for a model y.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago