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The description of his odds system did not make a lot of sense to me; especially in light of the statement that he does not count cards. Can anyone elaborate?
by dfc 15y ago
The description of his odds system did not make a lot of sense to me; especially in light of the statement that he does not count cards. Can anyone elaborate?
"Many casinos sell laminated charts in their guest shops that reveal the optimal strategy for any situation the game presents. But these odds are calculated by simulating millions of hands, and as Johnson says, “I will never see 400 million hands.”
More useful, for his purposes, is running a smaller number of hands and paying attention to variation. The way averages work, the larger the sample, the narrower the range of variation. A session of, say, 600 hands will display wider swings, with steeper winning and losing streaks, than the standard casino charts."
- gibybo 15y agoThe charts are maximizing EV without taking into account the discount he negotiated. With the loss discount, it becomes more profitable to increase short term variance beyond what the chart strategies would lead to.
- dfc 15y agoI'm sorry but your answer neglects the second paragraph that I quoted. That seems sort of important...
- corin_ 15y agoHere's the simplest example I can think of. Basic strategy says to split 8s, even if the dealer is showing a face card or an ace. Statistically, you are most likely to lose this hand whether you stand, hit or split it. By splitting them (following strategy) you give yourself the best odds of your choices, and according to probability, this makes it a better option in the long run. However, by splitting them, you are doubling the money you have risked on them, and therefor if you are only playing a single hand and then never touching blackjack again, you are basically risking twice as much money on a hand that, more often than not, you will lose.