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Maui wildfires are 'apocalyptic' as people jump into the ocean to flee
- willio58 3y agoSuper sad to see. Nowhere is safe from the realities of nature. And climate change is just kicking everything up several notches faster than most places are prepared for. Are hurricanes new to Hawaii? No. But will they become more frequent? Absolutely.
- BitwiseFool 3y agoHawaii also has the very unfortunate problem where highly flammable invasive species have basically taken over all of the dryland habitat.
- chrisco255 3y agoYou have no basis for the assertion that typhoons in the Pacific will become more frequent. Firstly, we have no reliable way of predicting the number of typhoons or hurricanes per season, even one season in advance. We certainly don't have the ability to predict them decades in advance. In the Western Pacific, the top recent years (as in late 20th century to present) for tropical cyclones were 1964, 1985, and 1971. In the Eastern Pacific, the top recent years for tropical cyclones were 2015, 1982, and 1992. In the Atlantic, top years were 2005, 2020, and 1973. There is no trend, there are periodic spikes in the various regions of the ocean. Hurricanes are strongly influenced by the ENSO (El Niño) cycle and multidecadal oscillations in the heat content of the Atlantic (AMO) and the Pacific (PDO), which humans don't control or influence. See: Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007 https://zenodo.org/record/1231299 https://zenodo.org/record/1231299 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_by_year https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_by_year
- whatshisface 3y agoIf you put more energy into the system one's expectation would be that the expressions of that energy will grow stronger. You don't have to be able to predict where all the bubbles in a pot of boiling water will appear to know that turning up the heat will produce more of them.
- paganel 3y agoAs OP’s numbers show, when it comes to typhoons/cyclones the “expressions of that energy” didn’t get stronger in the last ~50 years, even though measured average temperatures have grown in that time interval.
- worik 3y agoCherry picking
- paganel 3y agoSo you're saying OP's numbers are incorrect? In which case where is a source for the correct numbers?
- worik 3y ago> So you're saying OP's numbers are incorrect? That is not what cherry picking is.
- paganel 3y agoShowing only half of the truth (which I guess that's what cherrypicking means, no?) means you're not telling the truth, meaning you're not correct, meaning you're telling OP's numbers were not correct. Come on, gaslighting is not for HN. The quality in here has indeed come down in the last few years, but I had hoped that not by that much.
- veave 3y ago>If you put more energy into the system First law of thermodynamics calling in.
- mrob 3y agoThe Earth is not an isolated system.
- pfdietz 3y agoThis hurricane is very unusual. Hurricanes coming from the east normally die out before they get to Hawaii because the water there is cooler. This one plowed right past the islands (to the south) and is still going strong (130 mph winds). https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/DORA.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/DORA.shtml Better link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp2+shtml/144521.shtml?swath https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp2+shtml/144521.s...
- hammock 3y agoIs that evidence for or against climate change as the cause? As far as I know global warming has been happening for 100 years, it didn't exactly sneak up on us
- pfdietz 3y agoI think one can draw a connection between the behavior of the hurricane and current ocean temperatures. Extending that causal chain further seems more dubious to me. Here are current sea surface temperatures. You can see the hurricane track took it down a line of maybe 26-27 C SSTs, enough to keep it a hurricane. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/sst_loop/14_pac.png https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/sst_loop/14_pac.png
- eganist 3y agoYou're citing individual pixels on a low resolution screen and saying it's not possible the image on screen is {thing} because pixels x, y, z are wrong. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6 Even in cases where our temporal resolution is bad (how many data points? Certainly not in the thousands), you can still extrapolate a slope. > We certainly don't have the ability to predict them decades in advance. That's an interesting opinion.
- gdubs 3y agoWell, instead of focusing on frequency of hurricanes and cyclones we could look at intensity, which has markedly gone up since the 1990s: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...
- hammock 3y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging
- yongjik 3y agoFor decades, when climate scientists said "We don't know what will happen," people naively assumed "Well, they don't know what will happen, we'll probably be fine." Turns out they literally meant they didn't know what will happen. As in, we don't know how many hurricanes we'll get in 20 years. Or how strong they will be. If this does not sound absolutely terrifying, I don't know what to say.
- giantg2 3y ago"Nowhere is safe from the realities of nature" I think we have become so disconnected from nature that many people just assume the ugly side doesn't exist, or at least won't happen to them.
- shrubble 3y agoDo they mean to say that in Hawaii, people are wading into the water? Doesn't the reporter on the phone ascribe it to the action of a hurricane that is currently active, with dryness and high winds contributing? FWIW 1000 acres is less than 2 square miles. 640 acres is 1 square mile.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- saalweachter 3y agoYeah, but Maui is also only 735 sq miles. I guess 0.2% of it being on fire also doesn't seem like much, but it's still relatively severe, especially if it's one of the developed parts of the island.
- TylerE 3y agoPlus wildfire smoke is nasty, especially for those of us with respiratory issues to begin with.
- giantrobot 3y agoA lot of Maui's landmass is mountains with limited structures and development. So a two square mile fire in and around Lahaina in a pretty big deal.
- bradly 3y agoThe problem is there is really only one road connecting the two halves of the island. A small fire (or in the past flooding) in a small section can have an enormous impact of the island as a whole. We have short-term rentals in Maui and the west side and had guests stuck on the eastside sleep in the Walmart parking last. Our guests on the west side are without power for over 24 hours now I believe.
- amluto 3y agoLooking at a map, there are zero credible roads that are presently safe that go from the unburned area North of Lahaina to anywhere else.
- rngname22 3y agoIt might sound crazy but living near an ocean I keep an emergency inflatable raft for precisely this kind of situation with my larger emergency kit / go bag. Even a life preserver though is a lifesaver for this type of random natural disaster scenario. Another option is an airtight backpack like those used by packrafters. Good for waterproof in a rainstorm but also good as improvised life preserver if it has an air purge/inflation valve like Watershed dry bag backpacks (if you're willing to pay more you can get them in black btw) have as an option. You do have to deal with the flipside of having an airtight backpack though which is moisture management on the inside, if you put anything that condensates like a cold drink or has moisture like dirty gym clothes you'll need to make sure to keep the top opening opened to air out. Attaching a mesh bag to the outside though provides a mechanism for drying out items that retain moisture. Beyond Watershed, another decent option is Patagonia Guidewater, Fishpond Thunderhead, or Simms Dry Creek. Have heard of waterproofness failures though with any given zipper based airtight bag whereas haven't really heard of any with Watershed's ziplock style closure. You don't get any internal organization or padding though. Though I've found that throwing a picnic blanket and spare jacket / insulation layer at the bottom provides some padding for a laptop and has a dual use.
- latchkey 3y agoI live near an ocean too, but there are enough boats around me that I feel like someone would stop and pick me up. =)
- dylan604 3y agoDepending on the type of disaster, the boats already in the water might not be available.
- kunwon1 3y agoI was working on the island of Saint Martin during hurricane Gonzalo, we drove around the island the morning after. We probably drove past a hundred million dollars or more worth of pleasure craft that were just dashed against the shoreline and destroyed. Pretty much anything in the water was reduced to kindling. The locals mostly had small boats that a single person could drag up the beach, which they did, and those survived just fine
- mandmandam 3y agoThe video on this post [0] gives a more dramatic view than the media and language CNN are using. A warning: Although it has been edited to remove footage of a person who died, it's still terrifying stuff. 0 - https://old.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsane/comments/15mf7aj/maui_is_on_fire_this_was_taken_in_lahaina/ https://old.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsane/comments/15mf7aj/maui_i...
- falsebeliefs 3y ago[dead]
- jacquesm 3y agoThat's absolutely horrifying. Incredible footage, I assume that whoever is in the vehicle made it out otherwise this wouldn't be posted.
- Arrath 3y agoWell hopefully that's the most terrifying thing I watch all year. Wow.
- zackmorris 3y agoWe visited Maui last year, and I was kind of shocked how desertified it is. When HC&S (I think) pulled out in 2016, they left behind untended sugarcane plantations and a row of huge trees to die by the highway, I think they are Moneypods: https://www.photoresourcehawaii.com/image/I0000Bzi9pq4Ok6E https://www.photoresourcehawaii.com/image/I0000Bzi9pq4Ok6E The tragedy of it is that I saw that exploitation everywhere we went. Outside of Nicaragua and Guatemala, I don't think I've ever been somewhere where the locals were as suspicious of tourists. The pandemic gutted their economy so the feeling of hopelessness hung around even relatively remote places we visited along the Road to Hana. I just want to add that the Hawaiian islands have (I think) all climates represented and are dryer than expected, especially the lower islands which don't have trees on the mountains to catch rainwater. Which may even add a familiar appeal for mainlanders traveling there. But it was apparent that large swaths of native vegetation were cleared for colonization. I just don't see how fire management would work when an entire community has had its resources stolen for a century or more.
- scottrogers86 3y ago>I don't think I've ever been somewhere where the locals were as suspicious of tourists. The pandemic gutted their economy so the feeling of hopelessness hung around even relatively remote places we visited along the Road to Hana. I went to Maui last year for the first time. I've visited Kauai in my teens (we had family who lived there) this was the vibe then that they described -- tourists are generally not accepted, esp at the local surf spots. I actually found Maui more welcoming.
- bink 3y agoTo be fair, even locals aren't accepted at many surf spots if they aren't regulars. That's true on the mainland as well.
- ambicapter 3y ago"To be fair, the situation is even worse than you describe" I think this is called damning with faint praise?
- ryanisnan 3y agoI'm from Maui, and the reports of my family there are pretty bad. It sounds like the small town of Lahaina has had catastrophic damage to front street, which is one of the main tourist economic centres. I know of multiple heritage buildings that are completely lost. Additionally, apparently around 80 boats in the harbor have burned. I'm trying to fathom how boats, in the harbor, have burned, but.... alas.
- ryanisnan 3y agoAs an aside, I now live in a place that regularly sees proximal wildfires, and I've thought to myself, if I ever build my own house, there is zero chance I would build it to current building standards. Admittedly, I don't know to what standards I would build, but building mostly below ground is one.
- mtnops 3y agoLook at commercial zoning fire protections for your zip code and apply those standards to residential. Additionally, use non-combustible external materials and incorporate an exterior fire suppression system that draws from your own underground water source. You'll need to have your own power source and battery backup to run these pumps. You're looking at $100k for a modest residential structure. Insurance does not give you break for having this in a residential, outside of an insurance rating with -W modifier for the water source.
- bombcar 3y agoEven commercial buildings are built "fire-resistant" and often built to contain interior fires (a commercial kitchen fire is a matter of when, not if). You'd want to go beyond that to specific materials and thought thereof if you want to survive with a usable building in a wildfire - things like working out of the concrete will be stressed by the heat, etc. Underground is a good option.
- worik 3y ago> Admittedly, I don't know to what standards I would build, Check out Australian research
- xkcd-sucks 3y agoWhat's the newscaster's accent? It sounds vaguely UK / Commonwealth ish but like nothing I recognize
- kzrdude 3y agoI had the same question, curiosity got the better of me and I think it's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosemary_Church https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosemary_Church - British born Australian living in the US
- js2 3y agoSounds Australian to my American ears. Words like "burned" and "acres" are giveaways to me. What threw you off?
- hnbad 3y agoIt sounds like an exaggerated attempt at a British accent to my European ears. CNN being American made this even weirder as she doesn't sound like an American doing that. Someone linked the Wikipedia article for Rosemary Church (if that's who she is) stating she was born in Northern Ireland, grew up in England and Australia and has since been based in the US. Given this biography, it feels like her accent is not entirely organic. I've seen people (especially "citizen journalists") adopt chiefly British accents to appear more sophisticated (I guess?) and this does sound a bit like that to me. She likely has a bit of an accent organically but might have learned to lean into it for her credibility as an "international correspondent" (much like people born in the Southern US would hide their drawl). For comparison, these two are a good example for what I would clearly identify as what an Australian news anchor would sound like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMRdH90MDTY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMRdH90MDTY This is what I would clearly identify as what a more typical British news anchor would sound like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuPNh6NBhQM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuPNh6NBhQM
- js2 3y ago> I've seen people (especially "citizen journalists") adopt chiefly British accents to appear more sophisticated. That has a long history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_accent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_accent
- jonah 3y agoHere's a video of a helo overflight of (what is left of) Lahaina. https://www.facebook.com/1003045402/videos/989569092271534/ https://www.facebook.com/1003045402/videos/989569092271534/
- ryanisnan 3y agoRIP Lahaina.
- willturman 3y agoUnreal. It looks like the aftermath of a tornado. Here's a before/after comparison: https://i.imgur.com/6MyTQmo.png https://i.imgur.com/6MyTQmo.png
- dboreham 3y agoPhones need a "lock focus at infinity" mode.
- hammock 3y agoTeach the poor camera how to operate autofocus
- geocrasher 3y ago“I grabbed some people I saw on the street who didn’t seem to have a good plan. And I had told them, ‘Get your stuff, get in my truck,’” he said. No matter where you live: Have an emergency kit, a plan, and practice it at least once a year. https://www.ready.gov/kit https://www.ready.gov/kit
- ccozan 3y agoSeems like I need to plug a similar site ( for Romania ) : https://fiipregatit.ro/ https://fiipregatit.ro/ Mostly earthquakes but lately the storms have increased in intensity and violence.
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- 666_666_666 3y ago[dead]
- draw_down 3y ago[dead]
- gdubs 3y agoFirst, to anyone reading who has family or connections to the area – this is just awful, and there's really no words to offer that can change that. This summer has been absolute madness in terms of extreme weather. El Niño, combined with the reduction in shipping aerosols, against the background of just way too much human emissions building up in the atmosphere is producing some very dramatic events – many tragic. From the extreme flooding in Vermont, to the blistering heatwaves across the southwest, China, Europe, to one freakish hail storm after another. Many will chime in and say "it's just social media amplifying the worst", or "The Earth goes through cycles", or "how come the charts start 100 years ago". But, for anyone who's been paying attention to Climate Change for a long time now it's pretty clear that the future we've been warned about has arrived. It's very sad that this issue was successfully politicized. We have one planet.
- andrei_says_ 3y agoXkcd’s earth temperature timeline is really helpful when addressing the “Earth goes through cycles” narrative. Like all good propaganda the statement contains some factual information. It omits the crucial fact that the current cycle is thousands of times shorter and clearly caused by us humans changing our own biosphere. https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/
- adammarples 3y agoThis data is reconstructed, it's smoothed and acknowledges as much in the picture.
- dryrun 3y agoAnd the data from the last century, where we can see the difference in speed, is also smoothed, so that doesn't change much to the scenario we are in, does it?
- adammarples 3y agoToday's data is measured using thermometers, and averaged across the globe. The reconstructed data are composed of many different proxies, across many different studies, which are averaged out. I'm not trying to deny climate change here, I'm just saying that the reconstructed data will not capture the kind of rapid changes we're seeing now, for some time, and anyone reconstructing the 21st century from a vantage point 2000 years in the future using tree rings etc won't see the short term rapid changes we see now. The actually reconstruction methods are fascinating, and many of them contain a lot greater variance than we see in this graphic, and many of them disagree with each other too so you have to smooth things out a bit and have a best guess. That's not a restriction we have now with modern thermometers.
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- CatWChainsaw 3y agoShit's getting real and deniers still out in force. It really will take an apocalypse to shut the stupid up.