7 ms·

I think a lot of people on here have not been through a real recession. Not saying that everybody will go back to working in an office, but thinking one can sim

I think a lot of people on here have not been through a real recession. Not saying that everybody will go back to working in an office, but thinking one can simply demand anything only works when employment is high. During a recession, it is either social assistance or one takes the job that is available.

ye-olde-sysrq 3y ago
It also works if employees collectively bargain.
mandmandam 3y ago
> I think a lot of people on here have not been through a real recession. You can't be serious. > During a recession, it is either social assistance or one takes the job that is available. It's only this way because we allow it to be. Huge productivity gains over the last decades have been captured by the .1%. There's nothing ambiguous or mysterious about it.
- mdorazio 3y ago
  > You can't be serious. I have to agree with the parent post here. What do you think the median age of HN commenters is? I'd say it's probably mid-late 20s, in which case most people graduated after the great recession was largely over and only experienced the COVID blip that wasn't a cyclical recession in the normal sense and mostly helped tech workers instead of harming them.
  - intended 3y ago
    The median age here would be 40s.
    - pc86 3y ago
      Based on what?
      - intended 3y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734 Based on that. And this - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2322031 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2322031 Which has more links to older surveys. Thus 40.
    - ted_dunning 3y ago
      Same point applies. Somebody who is 40 has seen the last bit of one recession that didn't hit tech as hard as the dot com crash (or as hard as 1991 or 1980).
- commonlisp94 3y ago
  > You can't be serious. Ok, im serious. It's silly to quote someone when you don't have a rebuttal. 2008 was 15 years ago, and didn't hit tech as hard as other industries. The last serious one was early 2000s. A significant number of people "in it for the money" or with non-traditional credentials simply had to leave the field.
- mywittyname 3y ago
  The GFC didn't hit tech too hard. The places I worked pretended "times are tough" to justify not handing out any raises, but the place next door was always happy to pay more. I certainly was not feeling the same recession as my friends in other industries were. Anyone that worked through the dot-com bust is late-forties, at minimum. But they'd have to be mid-50s or older to really feel the effects and know what changed. And people in their mid-50s+ are a strong minority in tech. If the median tech worker is 32, they would have graduated college after the GFC was over (2014ish).
mytailorisrich 3y ago
That's true but it's also true that during a recession companies may be more focussed on saving money, and smaller offices because employees WFH save money. IMHO, for jobs that can be done either in an office or remotely the crux is the company's management team: Some people want to be in office to keep an eye on staff and maintain status, some don't care as long as the work is done.
Veliladon 3y ago
There is no excess labor left in the system. We just went through a pandemic where, in the US, 2.4 million people just vanished from the labor force. If there is a recession it'll be a fully employed recession where the fed has to keep rates high because workers are fully employed and driving up wages while capital is crying uncle for lost profits and cheap money again.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  I predict automation/outsourcing will keep whittling away the need for work from home computer based jobs. The labor demand will be for the in person jobs that require physical labor.
  - adolph 3y ago
    Predicting reduced need for labor due to "automation" has been a losing bet since the Luddites. Do the tasks change? Yes. Is more and different work enabled? Yes. Likewise "outsourcing" could result in a net increase of WFH given that contracting companies already support it.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      I specified reduced need for a certain type of labor.
- adolph 3y ago
  > in the US, 2.4 million people just vanished from the labor force Not certain what you mean by vanished and where the 2.4M number came from. CDC says 1,136,473 died in the pandemic [0], although a significant portion were not likely members of the labor force. As it stands the number labor force members caught up to pre-pandemic numbers in August of 2022. [1] Feb 2020 164M Apr 2020 156M Aug 2022 164M Jul 2023 167M 0. https://covid.cdc.gov/ https://covid.cdc.gov/ 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV
  - 3y ago
Workaccount2 3y ago
I think it comes from being a software engineer in US the last 10, and especially the last 5 years, is probably the greatest working conditions of any worker ever in human history. There are a large number of people, namely on HN, that have never known anything other than $120K+ compensation, constant stream of offers for changing jobs, all while working from their home and doing about 4 hours of real work a day. I don't think a recession is necessarily coming, but a reversion to the mean is going to leave these people obliterated.
- J_Shelby_J 3y ago
  Four hours of knowledge work a day is actually a lot. The average corporate worker probably does far less. Meetings, small talk, answering emails, etc. feel like work, but most of the time it isn’t. Four hours of focused knowledge work can produce exponential more value that four hours of meetings. The thing is, this has always been the case for the white collar world. Lawyers, executives, etc. The real change is that ICs that aren’t playing politics are able to live that life now. The reversion to the mean isn’t happening until those people stop producing massive economic value. Personally, I will work in a warehouse before I go back to the office. Do twenty hours a week temp work while I work on setting up a side business. It’s never been easier to start your own business, and we don’t need big companies to make a living anymore. The real reversion to the mean is cutting out the rent-seeking middle men that extract value from our economic output while contributing little themselves.
  - brmgb 3y ago
    > Four hours of knowledge work a day is actually a lot. The average corporate worker probably does far less. Meetings, small talk, answering emails, etc. feel like work, but most of the time it isn’t. Four hours of focused knowledge work can produce exponential more value that four hours of meetings. No idea if I should be rolling on the floor laughing or extremely saddened reading that. I might advice taking a reality check before spurring this kind of non sense in public if you want to avoid sounding both entitled and utterly disconnected.
  - putnambr 3y ago
boo-ga-ga 3y ago
I don't think even recession will necessarily affect this. All the employees have tasted remote work. And many (if not most) people see it as a huge benefit. So any company that forces people to visit their office for whatever reason will get a market penalty. Some will pay for it with higher compensation or other goods, but I'm sure many will seize the opportunity and will happily continue working remotely.
Someone1234 3y ago
Can you explain what point you're making? Seems like it is that employees should never ask for better working conditions because, it may be taken back when conditions allow employers to be more abusive? Is that really a point worth making?
makeitdouble 3y ago
You're assuming that companies will want to pay for downtown offices during a recession.
tristor 3y ago
> During a recession, it is either social assistance or one takes the job that is available. This is only true for people who don't have essential skills at a high level. For senior people, this won't be a problem. I cleaned up during the last two recessions, partly due to the prevalence of M&A activity during recessions, and was able to buy property cheap at auction post 2008 due to high foreclosure rates. If you're just starting your career in a recession you're pretty screwed, if you're mid-career with a specialized skillset that is essential to core business function, you'll be completely fine.

ye-olde-sysrq 3y ago

It also works if employees collectively bargain.

mandmandam 3y ago

> I think a lot of people on here have not been through a real recession. You can't be serious. > During a recession, it is either social assistance or one takes the job that is available. It's only this way because we allow it to be. Huge productivity gains over the last decades have been captured by the .1%. There's nothing ambiguous or mysterious about it.

mdorazio 3y ago
> You can't be serious. I have to agree with the parent post here. What do you think the median age of HN commenters is? I'd say it's probably mid-late 20s, in which case most people graduated after the great recession was largely over and only experienced the COVID blip that wasn't a cyclical recession in the normal sense and mostly helped tech workers instead of harming them.
- intended 3y ago
  The median age here would be 40s.
  - pc86 3y ago
    Based on what?
    - intended 3y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734 Based on that. And this - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2322031 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2322031 Which has more links to older surveys. Thus 40.
  - ted_dunning 3y ago
    Same point applies. Somebody who is 40 has seen the last bit of one recession that didn't hit tech as hard as the dot com crash (or as hard as 1991 or 1980).
commonlisp94 3y ago
> You can't be serious. Ok, im serious. It's silly to quote someone when you don't have a rebuttal. 2008 was 15 years ago, and didn't hit tech as hard as other industries. The last serious one was early 2000s. A significant number of people "in it for the money" or with non-traditional credentials simply had to leave the field.
mywittyname 3y ago
The GFC didn't hit tech too hard. The places I worked pretended "times are tough" to justify not handing out any raises, but the place next door was always happy to pay more. I certainly was not feeling the same recession as my friends in other industries were. Anyone that worked through the dot-com bust is late-forties, at minimum. But they'd have to be mid-50s or older to really feel the effects and know what changed. And people in their mid-50s+ are a strong minority in tech. If the median tech worker is 32, they would have graduated college after the GFC was over (2014ish).

mytailorisrich 3y ago

That's true but it's also true that during a recession companies may be more focussed on saving money, and smaller offices because employees WFH save money. IMHO, for jobs that can be done either in an office or remotely the crux is the company's management team: Some people want to be in office to keep an eye on staff and maintain status, some don't care as long as the work is done.

Veliladon 3y ago

There is no excess labor left in the system. We just went through a pandemic where, in the US, 2.4 million people just vanished from the labor force. If there is a recession it'll be a fully employed recession where the fed has to keep rates high because workers are fully employed and driving up wages while capital is crying uncle for lost profits and cheap money again.

lotsofpulp 3y ago
I predict automation/outsourcing will keep whittling away the need for work from home computer based jobs. The labor demand will be for the in person jobs that require physical labor.
- adolph 3y ago
  Predicting reduced need for labor due to "automation" has been a losing bet since the Luddites. Do the tasks change? Yes. Is more and different work enabled? Yes. Likewise "outsourcing" could result in a net increase of WFH given that contracting companies already support it.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    I specified reduced need for a certain type of labor.
adolph 3y ago
> in the US, 2.4 million people just vanished from the labor force Not certain what you mean by vanished and where the 2.4M number came from. CDC says 1,136,473 died in the pandemic [0], although a significant portion were not likely members of the labor force. As it stands the number labor force members caught up to pre-pandemic numbers in August of 2022. [1] Feb 2020 164M Apr 2020 156M Aug 2022 164M Jul 2023 167M 0. https://covid.cdc.gov/ https://covid.cdc.gov/ 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV
- 3y ago

Workaccount2 3y ago

I think it comes from being a software engineer in US the last 10, and especially the last 5 years, is probably the greatest working conditions of any worker ever in human history. There are a large number of people, namely on HN, that have never known anything other than $120K+ compensation, constant stream of offers for changing jobs, all while working from their home and doing about 4 hours of real work a day. I don't think a recession is necessarily coming, but a reversion to the mean is going to leave these people obliterated.

J_Shelby_J 3y ago
Four hours of knowledge work a day is actually a lot. The average corporate worker probably does far less. Meetings, small talk, answering emails, etc. feel like work, but most of the time it isn’t. Four hours of focused knowledge work can produce exponential more value that four hours of meetings. The thing is, this has always been the case for the white collar world. Lawyers, executives, etc. The real change is that ICs that aren’t playing politics are able to live that life now. The reversion to the mean isn’t happening until those people stop producing massive economic value. Personally, I will work in a warehouse before I go back to the office. Do twenty hours a week temp work while I work on setting up a side business. It’s never been easier to start your own business, and we don’t need big companies to make a living anymore. The real reversion to the mean is cutting out the rent-seeking middle men that extract value from our economic output while contributing little themselves.
- brmgb 3y ago
  > Four hours of knowledge work a day is actually a lot. The average corporate worker probably does far less. Meetings, small talk, answering emails, etc. feel like work, but most of the time it isn’t. Four hours of focused knowledge work can produce exponential more value that four hours of meetings. No idea if I should be rolling on the floor laughing or extremely saddened reading that. I might advice taking a reality check before spurring this kind of non sense in public if you want to avoid sounding both entitled and utterly disconnected.
- putnambr 3y ago

boo-ga-ga 3y ago

I don't think even recession will necessarily affect this. All the employees have tasted remote work. And many (if not most) people see it as a huge benefit. So any company that forces people to visit their office for whatever reason will get a market penalty. Some will pay for it with higher compensation or other goods, but I'm sure many will seize the opportunity and will happily continue working remotely.

Someone1234 3y ago

Can you explain what point you're making? Seems like it is that employees should never ask for better working conditions because, it may be taken back when conditions allow employers to be more abusive? Is that really a point worth making?

makeitdouble 3y ago

You're assuming that companies will want to pay for downtown offices during a recession.

tristor 3y ago

> During a recession, it is either social assistance or one takes the job that is available. This is only true for people who don't have essential skills at a high level. For senior people, this won't be a problem. I cleaned up during the last two recessions, partly due to the prevalence of M&A activity during recessions, and was able to buy property cheap at auction post 2008 due to high foreclosure rates. If you're just starting your career in a recession you're pretty screwed, if you're mid-career with a specialized skillset that is essential to core business function, you'll be completely fine.