8 ms·

Seems to me that the EV car market is going produce very few winners. Possibly killing off the old guard completely. Tesla is a given. The Chinese manufacturer

by rapsey 3y ago

Seems to me that the EV car market is going produce very few winners. Possibly killing off the old guard completely. Tesla is a given. The Chinese manufacturers (like MG) seem to be quite successful. The old European and US car makers are however failing quite badly. What they produce is hot garbage at a huge loss per car.

bigbillheck 3y ago
> Tesla is a given. It most certainly is not.
- rapsey 3y ago
  They are shipping millions of cars, cheaper than the competition and at a profit?
  - aredox 3y ago
    And they have some outstanding liabilities...
    - rapsey 3y ago
      Compared to GM and the like they have a very low level and very little debt.
    - mdorazio 3y ago
      Debt to equity ratios for OEMs according to Ycharts: Tesla: 0.11 Toyota: 1.06 GM: 1.65 Ford: 3.3 VW: 1.05 Seems fine to me...
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        Nitpick: Tesla’s equity is more volatile than the others’. Linking debt to operating cash flow makes more sense.
- kojiromike 3y ago
  You can quibble whether or not Tesla will continue to win at the scale it has, but it definitely doesn't seem likely to go bankrupt at the speed of a $6/share SPAC-boosted EV startup. It just doesn't really bear comparison to the other EV companies out there. It is not a startup, and has been publicly traded plenty long enough. Neither does it make sense to compare it to the old-guard ICE companies, which don't yet have their sea legs. Any company can fail (for a fairly broad definition of "fail"), given time, but there's no practical likelihood of Tesla suddenly going bankrupt in the near future.
- _Parfait_ 3y ago
  ..Confident and wrong, I love it
  - vel0city 3y ago
    Where do you source your crystal balls? Mine never seem to work quite right. Maybe I'm holding it wrong?
    - _Parfait_ 3y ago
      Crystal balls? What is the most profitable american car company? You let me know.
      - vel0city 3y ago
        The comment states Tesla performing well in the future is a given, a guarantee it'll exist in the future. We don't know what will happen in the future, I wouldn't say "x company existing in the future is a given". It'll probably keep doing very well. It may have some sudden event happen that makes it stumble. I wouldn't even state that the future of transportation in 20-30 years is a given. I wouldn't bet against Tesla in the next decade or so, but I wouldn't state its future performance is a given. You know, that whole "past performance does not guarantee future results" thing your broker keeps chanting. Unless you happen to have a crystal ball or some kind of time machine, in which case I'd like in on that.
        _Parfait_ 3y ago
        I'm so tired of the "I was actually making a semantic argument" thing people do to cover their ass. It's so lame.
        vel0city 3y ago
        Well, the answer to your "What is the most profitable american car company?", the American car company with the highest gross profit in 2022 was Ford. Maybe you need to polish that crystal ball a little bit more.
tzs 3y ago
> The old European and US car makers are however failing quite badly. What they produce is hot garbage That's not what I've seen in the numerous reviews I've read. Plenty of others get reviews similar to those of Tesla both from reviewers and their owners. Tesla has got by far the best charging network, and their drivetrain is top notch, but the car shaped object they put that drivetrain in is not great. The old car makers seem to be learning how to make good electric drivetrains faster than Tesla is learning to make the rest of the car. > at a huge loss per car. Aren't you jumping the gun a bit? It took Tesla 12 years from the time they started actually shipping cars to the time they started having profitable years.
- sgt101 3y ago
  I thought that the point of EV's is that there is no drive chain? The issue for the big car makers is that their differentiation is in the ICE drive chain... Making that thing to any sort of modern standard is very difficult, making millions of them at the right price is really difficult. Electric motors in the wheels - not so much. So, the established players have to find reasons why consumers will buy their implementation of a generic technology. The potential ones are specialisms, brand & service. Service is difficult because EV's don't need much. My 4 year old tesla has had 1 tyre repaired and a lot of washer fluid poured in the front. Specialisms will include things like bullet proofing, radical looks... Brand will be available to Ferrari, Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Porsche, and few others but these will be small scale - although overall they will add up to be somewhat significant. But companies like Ford, GM, VW, Mercedes, Renault, Toyota and Honda are really screwed. Even Tesla! Personal mobility is going to be commoditized, margins are going to go, costs are going to have to be cut radically
  - Infinitesimus 3y ago
    Think of drivetrain as all the magic that happens between power generation and what your wheels do. You have can the same batteries (or engines) in a car and get widely different driving dynamics. How does it put power down to the wheels? EVs are fantastic 0-60 machines in a straight line but the luxury brands you listed care about more than that (including status, of course). How does it corner? What happens when I floor the accelerator at 70mph? Does the car feel like a wild animal you're taming or a machine that feels like an extension of your body? Then you get to the other differentiators of interior design, extra tech capability, NVH management, etc. I'm excited for those areas to see some more useful innovation once 0-60 times stop being interesting. I think vehicles like the Prius, Leaf, etc are for the same audience as the corolla, altima, etc buyer. The playground for those who care about a particular 10% of their driving/badge experience will always exist regardless of what powers the vehicle
saiya-jin 3y ago
Like it or not, ICE cars still rule, and given their prices and lack of serious used cars markets so far with adequate pricing its not changing soon (I mean every BMW car I've bought was 20-25% of the price of new and was >95% of the car, so far they lasted 11 years / 150k km without any issues, I am not going to waste more money on cars regardless of technology). So sales of traditional ICE car manufacturers in electric space is not so important, at least for now. Given how much we destroy earth by mining all EV stuff I don't consider this as eco-friendly technology neither, at least not yet. Where I live (Switzerland) they don't plan to phase them out anytime soon. All EU goals will shift to later in future, everybody understands that, including politicians pushing for them. Also, Tesla had some good momentum in the beginning but right now they are just another e-car manufacturer among many, say Porsche beats them on everything actually important in car (apart from price, but then we talk about premium brands). So I wouldn't bet seriously on its future, it can be stellar or can flop ie if EU subsidies dry up.
- mschild 3y ago
  Prices are absolutely changing and the used car market for EVs is ramping up. Family member was looking for an electric car, but found new ones still a bit too expensive. There have been discounts from manufacturers. They decided to go for used. Bought a VW ID.3 for 23k Euro with 16000km. That's a car from 2 years ago. No crashes, battery still at 97% capacity.
  - saiya-jin 3y ago
    Yeah, that's type of car I am willing to spend max 6-7k used, in OK condition. Of course it won't be 2 years old, thats fine. That's the prices I am talking about.
    - mschild 3y ago
      That's fair and I'm not suggesting it's perfect. Even used EVs are expensive but it no surprise given the initial cost. Originally, that car sold for around 40k. That's a ~50% drop in 2 years and that car wasn't an outlier. Stands to reason that with advancing age and ever cheaper EVs we will see cheap used ones in your price range in a few years.
piva00 3y ago
> The old European and US car makers are however failing quite badly. What they produce is hot garbage at a huge loss per car. VW Group (VW, Audi, etc.) seems to be moving quite well into EVs, I don't understand how manufacturers with a huge know-how to manufacture ICEs could be taken as "failing quite badly" in a market that's barely 5 years in the mainstream. ICEs are much more complex machines to produce than EVs, battery tech is something that most automakers have gotten into. I think it's still too early to call shots like that, Tesla is still holding on its almost-first-mover advantage but it isn't a given it will stay that way when the competition increases. And competition has been increasing quite substantially.
- megaman821 3y ago
  It sounds reasonable but people said the same thing 5 years ago. What year will I see the legacy automakers utilize their advantages to sell more electric vehicles than Tesla? I actually feel in 5 more years people will be saying the legacy automakers never had a chance because they were too set in their ways.
  - andjd 3y ago
    > What year will I see the legacy automakers utilize their advantages to sell more electric vehicles than Tesla? <troll>Ford is selling thousands of F150 EVs a month. How many Cybertrucks has Tesla sold?</troll>
    - labcomputer 3y ago
      Yes, yet another promise that Elon broke!
  - piva00 3y ago
    5 years ago major automakers didn't have full lineups of EVs already in production. Now they have, it's heavy industry, not tech, things take a while to R&D and ramp-up to full-scale production. Now there is full-scale production from multiple manufacturers, it only gets easier from here, maybe another 5 years is a good waiting time to see clear trends emerging.

by rapsey 3y ago

bigbillheck 3y ago

> Tesla is a given. It most certainly is not.

rapsey 3y ago
They are shipping millions of cars, cheaper than the competition and at a profit?
- aredox 3y ago
  And they have some outstanding liabilities...
  - rapsey 3y ago
    Compared to GM and the like they have a very low level and very little debt.
  - mdorazio 3y ago
    Debt to equity ratios for OEMs according to Ycharts: Tesla: 0.11 Toyota: 1.06 GM: 1.65 Ford: 3.3 VW: 1.05 Seems fine to me...
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      Nitpick: Tesla’s equity is more volatile than the others’. Linking debt to operating cash flow makes more sense.
kojiromike 3y ago
You can quibble whether or not Tesla will continue to win at the scale it has, but it definitely doesn't seem likely to go bankrupt at the speed of a $6/share SPAC-boosted EV startup. It just doesn't really bear comparison to the other EV companies out there. It is not a startup, and has been publicly traded plenty long enough. Neither does it make sense to compare it to the old-guard ICE companies, which don't yet have their sea legs. Any company can fail (for a fairly broad definition of "fail"), given time, but there's no practical likelihood of Tesla suddenly going bankrupt in the near future.
_Parfait_ 3y ago
..Confident and wrong, I love it
- vel0city 3y ago
  Where do you source your crystal balls? Mine never seem to work quite right. Maybe I'm holding it wrong?
  - _Parfait_ 3y ago
    Crystal balls? What is the most profitable american car company? You let me know.
    - vel0city 3y ago
      The comment states Tesla performing well in the future is a given, a guarantee it'll exist in the future. We don't know what will happen in the future, I wouldn't say "x company existing in the future is a given". It'll probably keep doing very well. It may have some sudden event happen that makes it stumble. I wouldn't even state that the future of transportation in 20-30 years is a given. I wouldn't bet against Tesla in the next decade or so, but I wouldn't state its future performance is a given. You know, that whole "past performance does not guarantee future results" thing your broker keeps chanting. Unless you happen to have a crystal ball or some kind of time machine, in which case I'd like in on that.
      - _Parfait_ 3y ago
        I'm so tired of the "I was actually making a semantic argument" thing people do to cover their ass. It's so lame.
        vel0city 3y ago
        Well, the answer to your "What is the most profitable american car company?", the American car company with the highest gross profit in 2022 was Ford. Maybe you need to polish that crystal ball a little bit more.

tzs 3y ago

> The old European and US car makers are however failing quite badly. What they produce is hot garbage That's not what I've seen in the numerous reviews I've read. Plenty of others get reviews similar to those of Tesla both from reviewers and their owners. Tesla has got by far the best charging network, and their drivetrain is top notch, but the car shaped object they put that drivetrain in is not great. The old car makers seem to be learning how to make good electric drivetrains faster than Tesla is learning to make the rest of the car. > at a huge loss per car. Aren't you jumping the gun a bit? It took Tesla 12 years from the time they started actually shipping cars to the time they started having profitable years.

sgt101 3y ago
I thought that the point of EV's is that there is no drive chain? The issue for the big car makers is that their differentiation is in the ICE drive chain... Making that thing to any sort of modern standard is very difficult, making millions of them at the right price is really difficult. Electric motors in the wheels - not so much. So, the established players have to find reasons why consumers will buy their implementation of a generic technology. The potential ones are specialisms, brand & service. Service is difficult because EV's don't need much. My 4 year old tesla has had 1 tyre repaired and a lot of washer fluid poured in the front. Specialisms will include things like bullet proofing, radical looks... Brand will be available to Ferrari, Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Porsche, and few others but these will be small scale - although overall they will add up to be somewhat significant. But companies like Ford, GM, VW, Mercedes, Renault, Toyota and Honda are really screwed. Even Tesla! Personal mobility is going to be commoditized, margins are going to go, costs are going to have to be cut radically
- Infinitesimus 3y ago
  Think of drivetrain as all the magic that happens between power generation and what your wheels do. You have can the same batteries (or engines) in a car and get widely different driving dynamics. How does it put power down to the wheels? EVs are fantastic 0-60 machines in a straight line but the luxury brands you listed care about more than that (including status, of course). How does it corner? What happens when I floor the accelerator at 70mph? Does the car feel like a wild animal you're taming or a machine that feels like an extension of your body? Then you get to the other differentiators of interior design, extra tech capability, NVH management, etc. I'm excited for those areas to see some more useful innovation once 0-60 times stop being interesting. I think vehicles like the Prius, Leaf, etc are for the same audience as the corolla, altima, etc buyer. The playground for those who care about a particular 10% of their driving/badge experience will always exist regardless of what powers the vehicle

saiya-jin 3y ago

Like it or not, ICE cars still rule, and given their prices and lack of serious used cars markets so far with adequate pricing its not changing soon (I mean every BMW car I've bought was 20-25% of the price of new and was >95% of the car, so far they lasted 11 years / 150k km without any issues, I am not going to waste more money on cars regardless of technology). So sales of traditional ICE car manufacturers in electric space is not so important, at least for now. Given how much we destroy earth by mining all EV stuff I don't consider this as eco-friendly technology neither, at least not yet. Where I live (Switzerland) they don't plan to phase them out anytime soon. All EU goals will shift to later in future, everybody understands that, including politicians pushing for them. Also, Tesla had some good momentum in the beginning but right now they are just another e-car manufacturer among many, say Porsche beats them on everything actually important in car (apart from price, but then we talk about premium brands). So I wouldn't bet seriously on its future, it can be stellar or can flop ie if EU subsidies dry up.

mschild 3y ago
Prices are absolutely changing and the used car market for EVs is ramping up. Family member was looking for an electric car, but found new ones still a bit too expensive. There have been discounts from manufacturers. They decided to go for used. Bought a VW ID.3 for 23k Euro with 16000km. That's a car from 2 years ago. No crashes, battery still at 97% capacity.
- saiya-jin 3y ago
  Yeah, that's type of car I am willing to spend max 6-7k used, in OK condition. Of course it won't be 2 years old, thats fine. That's the prices I am talking about.
  - mschild 3y ago
    That's fair and I'm not suggesting it's perfect. Even used EVs are expensive but it no surprise given the initial cost. Originally, that car sold for around 40k. That's a ~50% drop in 2 years and that car wasn't an outlier. Stands to reason that with advancing age and ever cheaper EVs we will see cheap used ones in your price range in a few years.

piva00 3y ago

> The old European and US car makers are however failing quite badly. What they produce is hot garbage at a huge loss per car. VW Group (VW, Audi, etc.) seems to be moving quite well into EVs, I don't understand how manufacturers with a huge know-how to manufacture ICEs could be taken as "failing quite badly" in a market that's barely 5 years in the mainstream. ICEs are much more complex machines to produce than EVs, battery tech is something that most automakers have gotten into. I think it's still too early to call shots like that, Tesla is still holding on its almost-first-mover advantage but it isn't a given it will stay that way when the competition increases. And competition has been increasing quite substantially.

megaman821 3y ago
It sounds reasonable but people said the same thing 5 years ago. What year will I see the legacy automakers utilize their advantages to sell more electric vehicles than Tesla? I actually feel in 5 more years people will be saying the legacy automakers never had a chance because they were too set in their ways.
- andjd 3y ago
  > What year will I see the legacy automakers utilize their advantages to sell more electric vehicles than Tesla? <troll>Ford is selling thousands of F150 EVs a month. How many Cybertrucks has Tesla sold?</troll>
  - labcomputer 3y ago
    Yes, yet another promise that Elon broke!
- piva00 3y ago
  5 years ago major automakers didn't have full lineups of EVs already in production. Now they have, it's heavy industry, not tech, things take a while to R&D and ramp-up to full-scale production. Now there is full-scale production from multiple manufacturers, it only gets easier from here, maybe another 5 years is a good waiting time to see clear trends emerging.