5 ms·

Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fa

Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fabs will be. The author is conservative in judgments, but they ask a few questions worth considering, mainly: are the fabs big and efficient enough to offset the slower build, which is also more expensive, for lower volumes of production.

User23 3y ago
The real question is how unprofitable will it be to remain dependent on Taiwan in the face of the inevitable conflict coming with China. US and Europe based fabs could literally lose money and require subsidies and still net out as less expensive.
- bee_rider 3y ago
  Competition is inevitable, conflict, no at least I hope not. Of course, we (the US) can’t make them decide not to attack Taiwan, but our countries have managed the tricky situation so far.
- AYBABTME 3y ago
  I wouldn't talk of a conflict with China as inevitable. Competition is fine but no one in their right mind should wish for military conflict with China, it would be a tragedy for humanity.
  - Beached 3y ago
    wish for and expect are two different things. I wish the war in Ukraine would end tomorrow, I don't expect it will though. while China invading Taiwan is not a guarantee, it is certainly highly probable. this risk should be taken into account by the us government
    - isykt 3y ago
      Why do you think it’s highly probable?
      - genmud 3y ago
        Do you not keep track of current events? Chinas activities in the South China Sea, the fact they openly say they will integrate Taiwan, by force if necessary and unemployment being 20-30% for young people are just a few red flags.
bee_rider 3y ago
I think most of us only can reply to the first paragraph or so, and the first plot, because of the paywall. So most of the conversation is about the headline.
- gostsamo 3y ago
  there is an archive.is link posted in the comments and at least firefox has extensions for circumventing paywalls.
  - bee_rider 3y ago
    I think many people are just clicking on the main shared link, rather than using those tools. For me personally—in general, I read the story that the author/publisher intentionally posted for public discussion. While it is possible to circumvent paywalls, I wouldn’t want to go against the will of the author and their publisher. I think it is weird that we allow discussion of unauthorized copying of text here, but we don’t seem to allow (at least as far as I’ve seen) links for unauthorized copying of, say, movies or music.
- overtomanu 3y ago
  Below extension will be useful https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
  - bee_rider 3y ago
    I’d have to check and see how it works. I’m happy to block ads (I’ll render whatever I’m sent however I want), but I wouldn’t want to access content that the publisher didn’t intend to send.
    - burkaman 3y ago
      It works for sites that set a cookie to limit how many free articles you can see without logging in, or sites that let search engine scrapers bypass the paywall to read the full content. I would say it's a little more ethically questionable than ad blocking. Ad blocking is like buying a paper from a newsstand and duct taping over the ads - totally fine, it's my paper and I'll do whatever I want with it. This extension is like hanging around the newsstand reading all the front pages until the owner shoos you away, and then coming back with a fake mustache to keep reading.
ProjectArcturis 3y ago
Profitability on the fab level is the wrong metric. Producing semiconductors, like producing vaccines, has large positive externalities. It enables basically the entire rest of the economy to function. These fabs could lose billions, kept alive by government subsidies, and still be a great deal for the country as a whole.
- boringg 3y ago
  Macro economic arguments are pretty big here.
- twoodfin 3y ago
  It’s hard to believe anything at the scale and complexity of a modern semiconductor fab industry could remain competitive without actually facing competitive market pressures.
- gorjusborg 3y ago
  I think this applies to manufacturing in general (it is good for a society to build things). The trouble is that capturing government subsidies can become a business by itself. As long as the subsidies are there to restart involvement I think you get the benefits without profitability. If real profitability isn't a medium-to-long-term goal, things could get messed up.

User23 3y ago

The real question is how unprofitable will it be to remain dependent on Taiwan in the face of the inevitable conflict coming with China. US and Europe based fabs could literally lose money and require subsidies and still net out as less expensive.

bee_rider 3y ago
Competition is inevitable, conflict, no at least I hope not. Of course, we (the US) can’t make them decide not to attack Taiwan, but our countries have managed the tricky situation so far.
AYBABTME 3y ago
I wouldn't talk of a conflict with China as inevitable. Competition is fine but no one in their right mind should wish for military conflict with China, it would be a tragedy for humanity.
- Beached 3y ago
  wish for and expect are two different things. I wish the war in Ukraine would end tomorrow, I don't expect it will though. while China invading Taiwan is not a guarantee, it is certainly highly probable. this risk should be taken into account by the us government
  - isykt 3y ago
    Why do you think it’s highly probable?
    - genmud 3y ago
      Do you not keep track of current events? Chinas activities in the South China Sea, the fact they openly say they will integrate Taiwan, by force if necessary and unemployment being 20-30% for young people are just a few red flags.

bee_rider 3y ago

I think most of us only can reply to the first paragraph or so, and the first plot, because of the paywall. So most of the conversation is about the headline.

gostsamo 3y ago
there is an archive.is link posted in the comments and at least firefox has extensions for circumventing paywalls.
- bee_rider 3y ago
  I think many people are just clicking on the main shared link, rather than using those tools. For me personally—in general, I read the story that the author/publisher intentionally posted for public discussion. While it is possible to circumvent paywalls, I wouldn’t want to go against the will of the author and their publisher. I think it is weird that we allow discussion of unauthorized copying of text here, but we don’t seem to allow (at least as far as I’ve seen) links for unauthorized copying of, say, movies or music.
overtomanu 3y ago
Below extension will be useful https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
- bee_rider 3y ago
  I’d have to check and see how it works. I’m happy to block ads (I’ll render whatever I’m sent however I want), but I wouldn’t want to access content that the publisher didn’t intend to send.
  - burkaman 3y ago
    It works for sites that set a cookie to limit how many free articles you can see without logging in, or sites that let search engine scrapers bypass the paywall to read the full content. I would say it's a little more ethically questionable than ad blocking. Ad blocking is like buying a paper from a newsstand and duct taping over the ads - totally fine, it's my paper and I'll do whatever I want with it. This extension is like hanging around the newsstand reading all the front pages until the owner shoos you away, and then coming back with a fake mustache to keep reading.

ProjectArcturis 3y ago

Profitability on the fab level is the wrong metric. Producing semiconductors, like producing vaccines, has large positive externalities. It enables basically the entire rest of the economy to function. These fabs could lose billions, kept alive by government subsidies, and still be a great deal for the country as a whole.

boringg 3y ago
Macro economic arguments are pretty big here.
twoodfin 3y ago
It’s hard to believe anything at the scale and complexity of a modern semiconductor fab industry could remain competitive without actually facing competitive market pressures.
gorjusborg 3y ago
I think this applies to manufacturing in general (it is good for a society to build things). The trouble is that capturing government subsidies can become a business by itself. As long as the subsidies are there to restart involvement I think you get the benefits without profitability. If real profitability isn't a medium-to-long-term goal, things could get messed up.