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I hope everyone realizes that this doesn't mean less trade with China and Mexico is filling the gap. The Chinese continue to use Mexico to by pass US import con

I hope everyone realizes that this doesn't mean less trade with China and Mexico is filling the gap. The Chinese continue to use Mexico to by pass US import controls and send products and materials through to the USA. Stainless Steel, Aluminum, Rubber, etc. How many of these factories in Mexico that are exporting to the US Chinese? What we need to look at is how much trade has risen between Mexico and China, that will give us a better indication of what really is going on.

synergy20 3y ago
That's absolutely true and it's a national strategy in China to get around. Not just Mexico, Chinese companies set up offshore entities everywhere, from Vietnam to Singapore to Canada, Mexico, etc. Basically everywhere. They then ship components there, assembly there and ship the full product to US. I dare to claim 80% or even more trade increase between Mexico and US is done that way.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> What we need to look at is how much trade has risen between Mexico and China Total trade between America and Mexico rose from $613bn in 2019 to $779bn in 2022, an increase of $166bn [1]. Total trade between China and Mexico was $100bn in 2019 and 2021 [2][3]. America's trade with Mexico in the last three years grew by more than Mexico trades with China altogether. It seems unlikely that Mexico's trade growth with America is being driven by playing middle man to China. (Keep in mind: Mexican manufacturing wages are lower than China's [4].) The contrast is particularly poignant today, with China's announcement of a surprise July export decline of "14.5 per cent year on year in dollar terms...the steepest fall since the outset of the coronavirus pandemic in February 2020" [5]. Mexico, meanwhile, seems to be fine. [1] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html [2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/18681026211038339 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/18681026211038... [3] https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/exports-from-china-to-mexico-up-28-percent-2022/ https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/exports-from-china-to-m... [4] https://www.china-briefing.com/news/reshoring-from-china-to-mexico-how-prevalent-is-it-really/ https://www.china-briefing.com/news/reshoring-from-china-to-... [5] https://www.ft.com/content/6318c973-1ff7-44b6-9f4b-177e0706f1e2 https://www.ft.com/content/6318c973-1ff7-44b6-9f4b-177e0706f...

synergy20 3y ago

That's absolutely true and it's a national strategy in China to get around. Not just Mexico, Chinese companies set up offshore entities everywhere, from Vietnam to Singapore to Canada, Mexico, etc. Basically everywhere. They then ship components there, assembly there and ship the full product to US. I dare to claim 80% or even more trade increase between Mexico and US is done that way.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> What we need to look at is how much trade has risen between Mexico and China Total trade between America and Mexico rose from $613bn in 2019 to $779bn in 2022, an increase of $166bn [1]. Total trade between China and Mexico was $100bn in 2019 and 2021 [2][3]. America's trade with Mexico in the last three years grew by more than Mexico trades with China altogether. It seems unlikely that Mexico's trade growth with America is being driven by playing middle man to China. (Keep in mind: Mexican manufacturing wages are lower than China's [4].) The contrast is particularly poignant today, with China's announcement of a surprise July export decline of "14.5 per cent year on year in dollar terms...the steepest fall since the outset of the coronavirus pandemic in February 2020" [5]. Mexico, meanwhile, seems to be fine. [1] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html [2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/18681026211038339 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/18681026211038... [3] https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/exports-from-china-to-mexico-up-28-percent-2022/ https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/exports-from-china-to-m... [4] https://www.china-briefing.com/news/reshoring-from-china-to-mexico-how-prevalent-is-it-really/ https://www.china-briefing.com/news/reshoring-from-china-to-... [5] https://www.ft.com/content/6318c973-1ff7-44b6-9f4b-177e0706f1e2 https://www.ft.com/content/6318c973-1ff7-44b6-9f4b-177e0706f...