3 ms·
The prediction markets still give a 25% chance of it being an SC at room temperature? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-
by bhouston 3y ago
The prediction markets still give a 25% chance of it being an SC at room temperature?
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
This other prediction market only gives it a 5% chance of turning out:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-supercon...
IF the game is over, shouldn't arbitrage be possible between these various markets? I guess the timeline is very long for these bets and time is opportunity.
- simplyskeptic 3y agothe prediction markets? why don't we just flip coins over it, that sounds scientific as well!
- tarsinge 3y agoMarkets are just the average sentiment of a mass of greedy people trying to make a buck, there is no inherent prediction power.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- CyberDildonics 3y agoThe prediction markets still give a 25% chance of it being an SC at room temperature? Prediction markets are just uninformed gambling? They don't mean anything if the money is from people with low information? Don't rely on a prediction market to predict validity of a supposed scientific breakthrough?
- selestify 3y ago> They don't mean anything if the money is from people with low information? Why wouldn’t that incentivize someone with high information to come in and make a quick buck?