5 ms·

The story looks like a penny dreadful of “Russia is doomed” series. 1. There’s no info on that Russian slide about actual planes flying without any breaks at a

by piskov 3y ago

The story looks like a penny dreadful of “Russia is doomed” series. 1. There’s no info on that Russian slide about actual planes flying without any breaks at all. There’s a manufacturer defined minimum equipment list that allows planes to have some breaks (actual number depends on the type of a plane) disabled for, let’s say, 10 days at the most. This is absolutely normal as planes cannot be serviced constantly (they fly back and forth, duh). As long as you don’t exceed the allowed number of breaks disabled, you’re fine. 2. The slide just warns about possible adversary effects (off-axis skid and longer landing distance) if some of the breaks are disabled. This is expected, somewhat corrected by algorithms, etc. https://youtu.be/DeEb_lbdlQs https://youtu.be/DeEb_lbdlQs 3. No one is telling planes to fly without any brakes. 4. There are different types of “breaks”: the ones used in a landing and the ones for an end-of-runway “stop” are not the same. 5. If the adhesion index is lower than required for the specific landing (weight, fuel leftover, etc.) even the brand-new “brakes” are to no avail. Again, another parameter out of many. tldr; it is absolutely safe to fly those nine Aeroflot planes that — at the moment of the slide — had some breaks disabled (not to mention another thousand of other Russian passenger planes). == More importantly, there is absolutely no shortage of airplane parts in Russia — they’re just delivered in a more “wink-wink” obscure way. I guess it’s just the same as there’s no problem there and in China to get modern GPUs that US “ordered” nvidia and amd not to sell :-) Or mastercard/visa/swift “blocking”: even kids in Russia now have foreign virtual cards that are topped-up via p2p crypto in a matter of minutes so that one could buy anything digital (and physical via mail forwarders) online and rendering that great — mostly pr/perception based —“exodus from Russia” obsolete.

Johnny555 3y ago
>More importantly, there is absolutely no shortage of airplane parts in Russia — they’re just delivered in a more “wink-wink” obscure way. That sounds like a hazard in itself, airlines being forced to buy parts outside of official supply lines makes it much easier for unscrupulous sellers to substitute counterfeit parts.
- throwaway2037 3y ago
  You raise an interesting point. How does Iran, Cuba, and Syria get parts for any Boeing or Airbus civilian aeroplanes? Or are they all flying Russian aircraft now?
  - berdario 3y ago
    Not every country is sanctioned equally: Iran is flying mostly western planes, and there were plans to buy more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air#Future_fleet_plans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air#Future_fleet_plans DPRK is only flying Russian planes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Koryo#Current_fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Koryo#Current_fleet As a reminder, Russia lost overnight 78 planes: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-78-its-aircraft-have-been-seized-abroad-ifax-2022-03-22/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sa... (Of course, Russia also seized planes that were on its territory ) And due to other sanctions and boycotts, lessors are unable to keep their contract up and be paid from Russia (so, Russia is either forced to return the plane, or seize more... Since they already got comprehensively sanctioned, there's not much point in the former) Also, of course in the long term some countries are going to try to rely more on domestic/friendly production, but Sukhou planes apparently have lots of foreign parts, so switching to use only Sukhou isn't feasible nor a silver bullet
  - kakwa_ 3y ago
    Iran (Iran Air and Mahan Air) is flying mostly Airbus and Boeing, but really, really, really old planes. Given these are rather old planes, with a wide international distribution, I'm kind of expecting it's not too hard to find second hand parts cannibalized from retired planes and coming from neutral countries. They were even able to smuggle parts to keep some of their F14s flying. In comparison, civilian airliner parts surely are easy to get. Cuba is flying Russian except for a few ATR 72. I guess finding parts after 60 years to keep these Super Constellations flying is beyond reasonable. These two countries are in a bit of a pickle actually. Parts can only help you up to a point, they will need new planes. With the EU and US mostly aligned and inter-dependent anyway, if you are under embargo, the only place you can get a full aircraft is Russia, but their industry is lagging behind (particularly engines and avionics). Their most modern planes cannot be built without using western parts currently. China might be another provider in the future, but they are still dependent on foreign parts, engines in particular. And in both cases, while they have regional jets (ARJ21 and Sukhoi Superjet) and 737/A320 equivalents (Comac 919, Irkut MC-21), the long range offer is more sketchy (Soviet era IL-96 and still in design phase Comac 929).
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 3y ago
About the foreign virtual cards, can you please give me a link where I can get one? Being searching for a long time, only found scam. All legitimate ones require proof of address.
- grishka 3y ago
  Kazakh and Belarusian banks open cards for Russians with no questions asked. There are services that do it online for you. You only need a passport (the international kind).
  - throw-ru-938 3y ago
    Georgia is also a good choice, but you need to be physically present in the country. (It's a nice place though, but maybe not in August.) I don't recommend Armenia, the banks here have cracked down on tourists opening cards, and if you see someone offering you an Armenian card it's 100% a scam.
    - grishka 3y ago
      I heard of Georgian banks closing people's accounts with a week's notice for being "high risk" or something. It's a gamble. In Armenia, at least when I visited in December, I was told that "if you want an Armenian card, it can be done in 2 days for 25000 rubles that you put in your account". Not sure which bank it was. I also know people who opened cards in Indonesia and Turkey.
      - throw-ru-938 3y ago
        Yes, back then there was an Armenian bank that could get you a card for a crapload of money but no supporting documents. Since then, they've fallen in line with the others, and now they want a rent agreement and a local job.
- piskov 3y ago
  If you’re Russian, you will easily find the instructions how to get one If you’re not, then it’s prudent not to tell any actual “names”.
dingaling 3y ago
> There are different types of “breaks”: > the ones used in a landing and the > ones for an end-of-runway “stop” are > not the same. The dynamic and parking brakes use different actuator systems, but rely on the same rotors and stators on the undercarriage. Those are the consumbale parts that are sanctioned. In general it is permitted to dispatch an airliner with one or more brakes unavailable, depending upon load and airport conditions, but it's meant to be an interim measure pending brake replacement.
throwaway290 3y ago
As a Russian I'd say this guy lives in some other country. Probably imaginary. Based on how little reality there is in the comment I would not believe comments about airplane brakes either... Not a single person I know much less their kids has "foreign crypto virtual cards" etc. Ofc even if they had they would be locked out of transacting with any serious business that doesn't take crypto. The exodus is real, ask Armenians, Kazakhs, Georgians Finns or by now probably Argentinians. 30% of all people I know left. The government declared amnesty for any criminal who agrees to serve in the army for some time, and people know that all those murderers and rapists are coming back to the streets and dark alleys when Russia is kicked out of Ukraine. (Some people want to leave but stay because in their head they think everyone abroad except China hates them for actions of Putler, which is part of Russian propaganda designed to slow down brain drain.)
- grodriguez100 3y ago
  I am curious, is that propaganda effective within Russian people?
  - grishka 3y ago
    Scarily effective with the older (millennials' parents) generations.
- saiya-jin 3y ago
  I am sure what you describe is your real situation, but there may be more complexity. Its not like 30% of russian population left, rather less than 1% overall. 1 million in 150 million nation is a drop in the bucket. I am pretty sure russian state is able to draft another few millions into meat grinder of Ukraine without a blink of an eye. 1 thing eastern Europe is good at is avoiding official rules and finding ways to get forbidden stuff, some historical experience there. Also, you have places where russian propaganda (be it fsb, gru or subcontracted to wagner's troll farms) in past 2 decades was very effective in making non-trivial part of population firmly on Putin's side (and also anti-vax, anti-EU and so on in usual divide-and-conquer psyops manner). I mean, back home in my backwater Slovakia some recent polls showed 50% support of russian invasion in their neighbour. In the nation which was enslaved for 4 decades and occupied for 2 decades by soviet union and damaged beyond repair due to this, with usual shooting/electrocuting people on the borders trying to just run away, secret police arresting non-conforming people, snitching etc. It's... mostly less smart part of population for sure, but still.
antondd 3y ago
Do you work in the airline industry? Any source on the “absolutely no shortage of airline parts in russia”?

by piskov 3y ago

Johnny555 3y ago

>More importantly, there is absolutely no shortage of airplane parts in Russia — they’re just delivered in a more “wink-wink” obscure way. That sounds like a hazard in itself, airlines being forced to buy parts outside of official supply lines makes it much easier for unscrupulous sellers to substitute counterfeit parts.

throwaway2037 3y ago
You raise an interesting point. How does Iran, Cuba, and Syria get parts for any Boeing or Airbus civilian aeroplanes? Or are they all flying Russian aircraft now?
- berdario 3y ago
  Not every country is sanctioned equally: Iran is flying mostly western planes, and there were plans to buy more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air#Future_fleet_plans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air#Future_fleet_plans DPRK is only flying Russian planes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Koryo#Current_fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Koryo#Current_fleet As a reminder, Russia lost overnight 78 planes: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-78-its-aircraft-have-been-seized-abroad-ifax-2022-03-22/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sa... (Of course, Russia also seized planes that were on its territory ) And due to other sanctions and boycotts, lessors are unable to keep their contract up and be paid from Russia (so, Russia is either forced to return the plane, or seize more... Since they already got comprehensively sanctioned, there's not much point in the former) Also, of course in the long term some countries are going to try to rely more on domestic/friendly production, but Sukhou planes apparently have lots of foreign parts, so switching to use only Sukhou isn't feasible nor a silver bullet
- kakwa_ 3y ago
  Iran (Iran Air and Mahan Air) is flying mostly Airbus and Boeing, but really, really, really old planes. Given these are rather old planes, with a wide international distribution, I'm kind of expecting it's not too hard to find second hand parts cannibalized from retired planes and coming from neutral countries. They were even able to smuggle parts to keep some of their F14s flying. In comparison, civilian airliner parts surely are easy to get. Cuba is flying Russian except for a few ATR 72. I guess finding parts after 60 years to keep these Super Constellations flying is beyond reasonable. These two countries are in a bit of a pickle actually. Parts can only help you up to a point, they will need new planes. With the EU and US mostly aligned and inter-dependent anyway, if you are under embargo, the only place you can get a full aircraft is Russia, but their industry is lagging behind (particularly engines and avionics). Their most modern planes cannot be built without using western parts currently. China might be another provider in the future, but they are still dependent on foreign parts, engines in particular. And in both cases, while they have regional jets (ARJ21 and Sukhoi Superjet) and 737/A320 equivalents (Comac 919, Irkut MC-21), the long range offer is more sketchy (Soviet era IL-96 and still in design phase Comac 929).

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 3y ago

About the foreign virtual cards, can you please give me a link where I can get one? Being searching for a long time, only found scam. All legitimate ones require proof of address.

grishka 3y ago
Kazakh and Belarusian banks open cards for Russians with no questions asked. There are services that do it online for you. You only need a passport (the international kind).
- throw-ru-938 3y ago
  Georgia is also a good choice, but you need to be physically present in the country. (It's a nice place though, but maybe not in August.) I don't recommend Armenia, the banks here have cracked down on tourists opening cards, and if you see someone offering you an Armenian card it's 100% a scam.
  - grishka 3y ago
    I heard of Georgian banks closing people's accounts with a week's notice for being "high risk" or something. It's a gamble. In Armenia, at least when I visited in December, I was told that "if you want an Armenian card, it can be done in 2 days for 25000 rubles that you put in your account". Not sure which bank it was. I also know people who opened cards in Indonesia and Turkey.
    - throw-ru-938 3y ago
      Yes, back then there was an Armenian bank that could get you a card for a crapload of money but no supporting documents. Since then, they've fallen in line with the others, and now they want a rent agreement and a local job.
piskov 3y ago
If you’re Russian, you will easily find the instructions how to get one If you’re not, then it’s prudent not to tell any actual “names”.

dingaling 3y ago

> There are different types of “breaks”: > the ones used in a landing and the > ones for an end-of-runway “stop” are > not the same. The dynamic and parking brakes use different actuator systems, but rely on the same rotors and stators on the undercarriage. Those are the consumbale parts that are sanctioned. In general it is permitted to dispatch an airliner with one or more brakes unavailable, depending upon load and airport conditions, but it's meant to be an interim measure pending brake replacement.

throwaway290 3y ago

As a Russian I'd say this guy lives in some other country. Probably imaginary. Based on how little reality there is in the comment I would not believe comments about airplane brakes either... Not a single person I know much less their kids has "foreign crypto virtual cards" etc. Ofc even if they had they would be locked out of transacting with any serious business that doesn't take crypto. The exodus is real, ask Armenians, Kazakhs, Georgians Finns or by now probably Argentinians. 30% of all people I know left. The government declared amnesty for any criminal who agrees to serve in the army for some time, and people know that all those murderers and rapists are coming back to the streets and dark alleys when Russia is kicked out of Ukraine. (Some people want to leave but stay because in their head they think everyone abroad except China hates them for actions of Putler, which is part of Russian propaganda designed to slow down brain drain.)

grodriguez100 3y ago
I am curious, is that propaganda effective within Russian people?
- grishka 3y ago
  Scarily effective with the older (millennials' parents) generations.
saiya-jin 3y ago
I am sure what you describe is your real situation, but there may be more complexity. Its not like 30% of russian population left, rather less than 1% overall. 1 million in 150 million nation is a drop in the bucket. I am pretty sure russian state is able to draft another few millions into meat grinder of Ukraine without a blink of an eye. 1 thing eastern Europe is good at is avoiding official rules and finding ways to get forbidden stuff, some historical experience there. Also, you have places where russian propaganda (be it fsb, gru or subcontracted to wagner's troll farms) in past 2 decades was very effective in making non-trivial part of population firmly on Putin's side (and also anti-vax, anti-EU and so on in usual divide-and-conquer psyops manner). I mean, back home in my backwater Slovakia some recent polls showed 50% support of russian invasion in their neighbour. In the nation which was enslaved for 4 decades and occupied for 2 decades by soviet union and damaged beyond repair due to this, with usual shooting/electrocuting people on the borders trying to just run away, secret police arresting non-conforming people, snitching etc. It's... mostly less smart part of population for sure, but still.

antondd 3y ago

Do you work in the airline industry? Any source on the “absolutely no shortage of airline parts in russia”?