3 ms·
In contrast, I think it's going to get really interesting when a tipping point is reached. At some point, EVs will replace enough of the automobile population
by toss1 3y ago
In contrast, I think it's going to get really interesting when a tipping point is reached.
At some point, EVs will replace enough of the automobile population that gasoline sales decline below profitability for most petrol stations.
While the ordinary thought is that this will happen gradually, it seems more likely to resemble the dynamics of an animal population that suddenly has insufficient food (whether by over-breeding or a food supply shortage). This dynamics is not that if the population is 110% of the food supply that 10% die off, it is more like a crash where 90% die off in such a situation; the starvation is evenly distributed so almost no one gets enough to survive.
So, when petrol stations have a great crash and mostly die off, suddenly the range anxiety will be pervasive in the petrol-powerd drivers. Which will make them want to get out even more, etc.
There's probably solutions to this, but will it be managed in time? Petrol-station subsidies seem like a bad idea...
- r00fus 3y agoWhat's the likelihood that gas stations change to offering charging also/instead?
- toss1 3y agoI expect the survivors will do that, but then charging also requires more spaces to sell the same energy/hour, with an average charge taking what 30min, vs 6 min to fill a petrol tank?
- bryanlarsen 3y agoRight now gas stations operate in a cutthroat industry. The price is mounted on big signs visible from the street, and people will irrationally drive across town to save 10 cents per gallon. Once 90% of gas stations go away, that dynamic will be gone. Few gas stations mean there won't be the same level of price competition, so they'll be able to survive on much less volume. And there will be always be some demand for gasoline from classic cars, et cetera.
- giardini 3y agoIIRC I've read that gas stations don't make much on gas sales but mostly on other items you buy. If so, the dynamic may be different from the population model.