5 ms·
>rationalization that withstands any cursory scrutiny I mean yeah, that's the rationalisation, that useful idiots deliberately try not to see. PRC currently @6
by dirtyid 3y ago
>rationalization that withstands any cursory scrutiny
I mean yeah, that's the rationalisation, that useful idiots deliberately try not to see. PRC currently @65% urbanzation, with goal of 75-80% by 2035, aka 140-200M people. PRC "only" has 50M empty flats. Having excess housing inventory is fine, it's inefficient, but no more inefficient that US health sector at 20% GDP with medicore life expectancy. Which is only a light dig as US, but mostly to show that it's not big deal in the grand scheme of things.
>who will work the 10% of China's land that's arable to feed 1.4B people
PRC has 200M farming housholds when it really only needs 10M farmers using advanced ag equipment. There's stupid oversupply of agriculture labour, by design because it's a nice make job program for rural poor and consolidating agriculture is touchy subject because land reforms central to CCP founding mythos. Like out of all the concerns, lack of ag labour is most trivial.
>paying for any of this
With modest debt. PRC national debt is ~75% of GDP vs US ~120%, total aggregate debt PRC ~270% vs US ~760%. Basically +40-50% in the last 10 years to fund the largest infra expansion in human history. Pretty cheap all things considered.
>a zombie economy
1. @5% growth, if PRC is where JP is in 80s, that's 500% larger economy by 00s. If PRC is zombie economy, everyone else is stone dead.
> dependent on a crumbling world order,
2. PRC's is globalizing, see PRC increasing trade by 1T in last 4 years, more than previous 10, greatest increase in globalism in human history.
> surrounded by countries that hold millennia-old grudges against it.
3. Small countries where even with US basing, military force balance is trending towards PRC favor with each passing year.
>Plus Russia.
4. Guaranteed cheap gas and agri.
TLDR if PRC last few years is zombie, than momentum of PRC zombie horde will win like in most zombie media.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]