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Anyone who took a high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai over the past decade might have caught on to this phenomenon. The number of cities built in the midd

by isykt 3y ago

Anyone who took a high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai over the past decade might have caught on to this phenomenon. The number of cities built in the middle of nowhere, with concrete skyscrapers standing empty, is stark and staggering. Seeing them is not only surreal, but gives one the sense of seeing something they ought not to, despite it being right outside the window. The only rationalization that withstands any cursory scrutiny is to think that those towers are the seeds of, say, another Zhengzhou, which more than doubled in population (1.1 to 2.3m people) from 1990 to 2000, then added another 1.2m people from 2000-2010, then added another 1.7m people from 2010-2020 [0]. But then: who will work the 10% of China's land that's arable to feed 1.4B people? And what kind of family will those who came of age during the 1 child policy have in a cramped city? Finally, how the hell is China paying for any of this? Add it all up, and you get what this article is talking about: a zombie economy, dependent on a crumbling world order, surrounded by countries that hold millennia-old grudges against it. Plus Russia. Yikes. [0]https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/zhengzhou-population https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/zhengzhou-pop...

naveen99 3y ago
Average living area per person in China is still half of usa, about 350 square feet compared to 700 in usa.
piyh 3y ago
Are there no mechanization gains in China to increase ag production per worker? In the short term they're already net importers of food, no reason this can't continue until their population collapses via impacts of 1 child.
- isykt 3y ago
  China is the world’s biggest importer of meat, dairy, soybeans and corn. The last time they tried an agricultural revolution, approximate 40m people starved to death. The Chinese population already in rapid decline, but not fast enough.
  - Incipient 3y ago
    Their population doesn't seem to be in decline yet? The population growth may be in decline (I didn't check) but the population isn't. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_history_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_history_of_China
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3211098/china-population-henan-shows-scale-demographic-challenge-deaths-outnumber-births-first-time-60-years https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3211098/china-populatio... https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149453055/china-records-1st-population-fall-in-decades-as-births-drop https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149453055/china-records-1st-...
credit_guy 3y ago
> who will work the 10% of China's land that's arable to feed 1.4B people? According to the US Department of Agriculture [1], in the US "Direct on-farm employment accounted for about 2.6 million of these jobs, or 1.3 percent of U.S. employment" China is not as advanced as the US, but even if the productivity is lower by a factor of 5, you could end up with only 6.5% of the working population being employed on farms. The Chinese workforce is 733 million people, so you'd need to have less than 50 million employed on farms. [1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistic...
dirtyid 3y ago
>rationalization that withstands any cursory scrutiny I mean yeah, that's the rationalisation, that useful idiots deliberately try not to see. PRC currently @65% urbanzation, with goal of 75-80% by 2035, aka 140-200M people. PRC "only" has 50M empty flats. Having excess housing inventory is fine, it's inefficient, but no more inefficient that US health sector at 20% GDP with medicore life expectancy. Which is only a light dig as US, but mostly to show that it's not big deal in the grand scheme of things. >who will work the 10% of China's land that's arable to feed 1.4B people PRC has 200M farming housholds when it really only needs 10M farmers using advanced ag equipment. There's stupid oversupply of agriculture labour, by design because it's a nice make job program for rural poor and consolidating agriculture is touchy subject because land reforms central to CCP founding mythos. Like out of all the concerns, lack of ag labour is most trivial. >paying for any of this With modest debt. PRC national debt is ~75% of GDP vs US ~120%, total aggregate debt PRC ~270% vs US ~760%. Basically +40-50% in the last 10 years to fund the largest infra expansion in human history. Pretty cheap all things considered. >a zombie economy 1. @5% growth, if PRC is where JP is in 80s, that's 500% larger economy by 00s. If PRC is zombie economy, everyone else is stone dead. > dependent on a crumbling world order, 2. PRC's is globalizing, see PRC increasing trade by 1T in last 4 years, more than previous 10, greatest increase in globalism in human history. > surrounded by countries that hold millennia-old grudges against it. 3. Small countries where even with US basing, military force balance is trending towards PRC favor with each passing year. >Plus Russia. 4. Guaranteed cheap gas and agri. TLDR if PRC last few years is zombie, than momentum of PRC zombie horde will win like in most zombie media.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
lamontcg 3y ago
skyscrapers standing empty? zombie economy based on cheap debt? good thing the US doesn't have any of that.
- nirui 3y ago
  Except the US do have a rather strong private sector that is capable of absorbing the debts (and maybe empty skyscrapers too). China on the other hand, always squeeze and bit off wealth from it's private sector, sometimes not even by using the power of market force. China instead just issues laws and regulations until private business lights out. For example, it is completely illegal for an individual entrepreneur to start up video sharing service (like YouTube), because hosting video sharing service require special license. And one of the condition is that the owner entity must be state-owned or state-majority. Without the license, the operator can be fined a huge sum of money and/or be jailed. On the similar faction, there are also license requirements for operating service like news, BBS/forums/guestbook etc. Not all of them require a state-owned or state-majority owner, but still, enough to drive business ideas out of the window. So that's a little background information I thought you should know. Of course, not all laws and regulations issued by China was unreasonable and designed to drive out private business, and IMO state-owned company can operate many fields better than private ones (like running your water, gas, bus, hospital etc). But "letting good people do good things" is just not how things work in China.
datumy 3y ago
China has only 10% of the world's arable land yet produces a quarter of the global grain output and leads the planet in the production of cereals, cotton, fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs, and fishery products, according to FAO. [0] China is more than 100% self sufficient on essential food (rice and other grains). China does import a large amount of soybean for fodder. If anything, I think Chinese eat too much nowadys and become as wasteful in food as Americans. When I visit China, I don't like the fact that many families have pets (dog, cat, and etc) just like here in US. [0]https://www.fao.org/china/fao-in-china/china-at-a-glance/en https://www.fao.org/china/fao-in-china/china-at-a-glance/en

by isykt 3y ago

naveen99 3y ago

Average living area per person in China is still half of usa, about 350 square feet compared to 700 in usa.

piyh 3y ago

Are there no mechanization gains in China to increase ag production per worker? In the short term they're already net importers of food, no reason this can't continue until their population collapses via impacts of 1 child.

isykt 3y ago
China is the world’s biggest importer of meat, dairy, soybeans and corn. The last time they tried an agricultural revolution, approximate 40m people starved to death. The Chinese population already in rapid decline, but not fast enough.
- Incipient 3y ago
  Their population doesn't seem to be in decline yet? The population growth may be in decline (I didn't check) but the population isn't. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_history_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_history_of_China
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3211098/china-population-henan-shows-scale-demographic-challenge-deaths-outnumber-births-first-time-60-years https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3211098/china-populatio... https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149453055/china-records-1st-population-fall-in-decades-as-births-drop https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149453055/china-records-1st-...

credit_guy 3y ago

> who will work the 10% of China's land that's arable to feed 1.4B people? According to the US Department of Agriculture [1], in the US "Direct on-farm employment accounted for about 2.6 million of these jobs, or 1.3 percent of U.S. employment" China is not as advanced as the US, but even if the productivity is lower by a factor of 5, you could end up with only 6.5% of the working population being employed on farms. The Chinese workforce is 733 million people, so you'd need to have less than 50 million employed on farms. [1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistic...

dirtyid 3y ago

>rationalization that withstands any cursory scrutiny I mean yeah, that's the rationalisation, that useful idiots deliberately try not to see. PRC currently @65% urbanzation, with goal of 75-80% by 2035, aka 140-200M people. PRC "only" has 50M empty flats. Having excess housing inventory is fine, it's inefficient, but no more inefficient that US health sector at 20% GDP with medicore life expectancy. Which is only a light dig as US, but mostly to show that it's not big deal in the grand scheme of things. >who will work the 10% of China's land that's arable to feed 1.4B people PRC has 200M farming housholds when it really only needs 10M farmers using advanced ag equipment. There's stupid oversupply of agriculture labour, by design because it's a nice make job program for rural poor and consolidating agriculture is touchy subject because land reforms central to CCP founding mythos. Like out of all the concerns, lack of ag labour is most trivial. >paying for any of this With modest debt. PRC national debt is ~75% of GDP vs US ~120%, total aggregate debt PRC ~270% vs US ~760%. Basically +40-50% in the last 10 years to fund the largest infra expansion in human history. Pretty cheap all things considered. >a zombie economy 1. @5% growth, if PRC is where JP is in 80s, that's 500% larger economy by 00s. If PRC is zombie economy, everyone else is stone dead. > dependent on a crumbling world order, 2. PRC's is globalizing, see PRC increasing trade by 1T in last 4 years, more than previous 10, greatest increase in globalism in human history. > surrounded by countries that hold millennia-old grudges against it. 3. Small countries where even with US basing, military force balance is trending towards PRC favor with each passing year. >Plus Russia. 4. Guaranteed cheap gas and agri. TLDR if PRC last few years is zombie, than momentum of PRC zombie horde will win like in most zombie media.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

lamontcg 3y ago

skyscrapers standing empty? zombie economy based on cheap debt? good thing the US doesn't have any of that.

nirui 3y ago
Except the US do have a rather strong private sector that is capable of absorbing the debts (and maybe empty skyscrapers too). China on the other hand, always squeeze and bit off wealth from it's private sector, sometimes not even by using the power of market force. China instead just issues laws and regulations until private business lights out. For example, it is completely illegal for an individual entrepreneur to start up video sharing service (like YouTube), because hosting video sharing service require special license. And one of the condition is that the owner entity must be state-owned or state-majority. Without the license, the operator can be fined a huge sum of money and/or be jailed. On the similar faction, there are also license requirements for operating service like news, BBS/forums/guestbook etc. Not all of them require a state-owned or state-majority owner, but still, enough to drive business ideas out of the window. So that's a little background information I thought you should know. Of course, not all laws and regulations issued by China was unreasonable and designed to drive out private business, and IMO state-owned company can operate many fields better than private ones (like running your water, gas, bus, hospital etc). But "letting good people do good things" is just not how things work in China.

datumy 3y ago

China has only 10% of the world's arable land yet produces a quarter of the global grain output and leads the planet in the production of cereals, cotton, fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs, and fishery products, according to FAO. [0] China is more than 100% self sufficient on essential food (rice and other grains). China does import a large amount of soybean for fodder. If anything, I think Chinese eat too much nowadys and become as wasteful in food as Americans. When I visit China, I don't like the fact that many families have pets (dog, cat, and etc) just like here in US. [0]https://www.fao.org/china/fao-in-china/china-at-a-glance/en https://www.fao.org/china/fao-in-china/china-at-a-glance/en