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Hedge Fund Titan – Says ‘Greatest Credit Bubble in Human History’ Is Set to Pop

23 points by archo 3y ago

archo 3y ago
https://archive.is/SpZUC https://archive.is/SpZUC <Full Title> The hedge fund titan who’s been watching for ‘black swans’ for decades says the ‘greatest credit bubble in human history’ is set to pop—but he’s not worried.
jug 3y ago
Title is not what the article is about, but the article reads sensible enough to me and agrees with what I’ve heard about hedging against risks. And to be frank, the response from the expert shouldn’t be as hugely surprising to the author as he implies because this is pretty common advice even from regular bank staff. It’s pretty well known that your best weapon in riding out even black swan events is to have time on your hands, and if you haven’t got that (where “time” depends on the risk profiles of your savings) you should already not be in the market. It’s easy to get emotional and do reactionary things though! Even pros fall for it! Investors have killed themselves in financial crises! To calm myself, I use to look back. It felt like the sky was falling at some points in 2008 with structural collapses so that’s when I use to look at those historical charts and what happened after the crisis.
ProjectArcturis 3y ago
Better headline: Hedge Funder who Invests in Disaster Insurance Says Disaster Coming.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- dmonitor 3y ago
  curious what they’re track record looks like
  - weard_beard 3y ago
    4% return inclusive of 2008 jackpot.
    - hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
      Where did you get this number from?
thedudeabides5 3y ago
First I'm hearing of this "Universa... posted a 105% life-to-date average annual return on invested capital between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2019."
- mamonster 3y ago
  This sounds super sketchy. Return on invested capital is not an accepted hedge fund performance metric, and the idea that a tail hedge fund could make 105% a year on average is ridiculous. This is why Spitznagel(but even more so Taleb, Universa's "scientific advisor") are considered clowns in tail risk and quant hedge fund space, huge amount of publicity but no public audited figures to back the claims up.
msftie 3y ago
The tl;dr of the entire article is “buy and hold low cost index funds” (see final two or three paragraphs).

23 points by archo 3y ago

https://archive.is/SpZUC https://archive.is/SpZUC <Full Title> The hedge fund titan who’s been watching for ‘black swans’ for decades says the ‘greatest credit bubble in human history’ is set to pop—but he’s not worried.

jug 3y ago

Title is not what the article is about, but the article reads sensible enough to me and agrees with what I’ve heard about hedging against risks. And to be frank, the response from the expert shouldn’t be as hugely surprising to the author as he implies because this is pretty common advice even from regular bank staff. It’s pretty well known that your best weapon in riding out even black swan events is to have time on your hands, and if you haven’t got that (where “time” depends on the risk profiles of your savings) you should already not be in the market. It’s easy to get emotional and do reactionary things though! Even pros fall for it! Investors have killed themselves in financial crises! To calm myself, I use to look back. It felt like the sky was falling at some points in 2008 with structural collapses so that’s when I use to look at those historical charts and what happened after the crisis.

ProjectArcturis 3y ago

Better headline: Hedge Funder who Invests in Disaster Insurance Says Disaster Coming.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
dmonitor 3y ago
curious what they’re track record looks like
- weard_beard 3y ago
  4% return inclusive of 2008 jackpot.
  - hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
    Where did you get this number from?

thedudeabides5 3y ago

First I'm hearing of this "Universa... posted a 105% life-to-date average annual return on invested capital between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2019."

mamonster 3y ago
This sounds super sketchy. Return on invested capital is not an accepted hedge fund performance metric, and the idea that a tail hedge fund could make 105% a year on average is ridiculous. This is why Spitznagel(but even more so Taleb, Universa's "scientific advisor") are considered clowns in tail risk and quant hedge fund space, huge amount of publicity but no public audited figures to back the claims up.

msftie 3y ago

The tl;dr of the entire article is “buy and hold low cost index funds” (see final two or three paragraphs).