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> Did humans with computer replace humans without computer? Yes, they did. Or rather: everyone was forced to catch up and those that didn't just got left behin

> Did humans with computer replace humans without computer? Yes, they did. Or rather: everyone was forced to catch up and those that didn't just got left behind. Those of us who saw the PC revolution still remember the time when typewriters were an everyday artifact. We also saw how everyone was forced to choose between updating or being left behind - no matter how fast your secretary was, a human with carbon paper is no match for a human that slightly tweaks a template and sends 10 copies to the printer. And a human with a calculator will always be slower than a human with Excel.

thefz 3y ago
> Yes, they did. Or rather: everyone was forced to catch up and those that didn't just got left behind. Do a plumber, a baker, a policeman need a computer to do their job? That's right, they don't. So men with computers did not "replace" those without.
- Knee_Pain 3y ago
  Policemen literally have computers in their patrol vehicles and a lot of police work is computer work. Plumbers need to order stuff online, manage invoices, have an online presence to get and communicate with customers, have digital instruments that might feed into their field laptop. Bakers use digitalized machines and have their recipes down to an almost exact science. They use computers all the time to calibrate stuff.
- mewpmewp2 3y ago
  Police definitely needs all the tech it has, beginning with auto detecting license plates to countless other tech they use.
- robot_no_421 3y ago
  Even if those people aren't using computers at their job (and I even disagree with that), they still use computers. A baker with a computer and internet access has access to more recipes than a baker without a computer. A baker with a website and an online presence is finding more customers than a baker who only exists in the real world. As a matter of fact, the new boiler my plumber (who has a webpage and I found online, mind you) recently installed has computer chips and circuits. My plumber seems very technically literate and knowledgeable about the tech as well. Police offices are now using AI to catch people. Even before, they were using computers in criminology for DNA samples. So all of the professions you listed use computers all the time for their job. Both directly and indirectly. A baker without internet, a plumber with no computer knowledge, a police office stuck using analog tools are all worse off than their tech savvy counterparts.
  - jcpst 3y ago
    > A baker with a website and an online presence is finding more customers than a baker who only exists in the real world. I can say for sure that this is simply not true. There are bakeries without websites that make a killing, while at the same time there are smaller ones in the same areas trying to drum up business online with less success.
    - robot_no_421 3y ago
      You're picking exceptions to the rule and claiming that those exceptions invalidate the whole rule. Sure some bakeries are just better than others, a good bakery with no website will do better than a bad bakery with a website. But all things considered, having an online presence always helps your business. A fantastic bakery with a website will get more customers than a fantastic bakery with no website.
      - newaccount74 3y ago
        I think you picked the worst example ever. The success of a bakery is based on 3 things: 1) location 2) location 3) location Everything else doesn't matter. Nobody goes online every day to see "Gee, I wonder which artisanal bakery I'm going to drive to today, and I'm going to make my decision based on which bakery has the flashiest website". If websites mattered, then small businesses wouldn't have the crappiest websites ever.
        robot_no_421 3y ago
        Wow, only location, huh? Doesn't matter if their product is actually good? And I guess if there are two bakeries in the same location (happens every day in these places called "cities"), I will just pick randomly then. If you really think bakers don't benefit from using computers, then you're just not thinking very hard. I always look up the reviews of the bakeries I go to if I'm buying a cake or something. I wouldn't risk buying something at a bakery without checking online if it's worth it or not. >If websites mattered, then small businesses wouldn't have the crappiest websites ever. If websites DIDNT matter, these small businesses would not have websites at all. I'm not saying you need a good website. You just need any website for discovery. Your example actually supports my arguement - why would small businesses be wasting time with websites unless it helped them?
- flask_manager 3y ago
  The last plumber I hired had a website, spotted a leak with a flir camera (and had a pile of interesting niche electronics), and sent me an invoice he generated through an app on his phone via email... Maybe there are places where you can hire some analog types on the cheap, but where I am the computerized ones are way more efficient.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- croes 3y ago
  How do you thinnk plumbers and bakers order their products and promote their services? The ones with computers beat the ones without. And police is already a heavy user of computers
- theshrike79 3y ago
  Let's take an example about plumbers: Plumber A has a van and a phone number attached to it. They're also in the yellow pages. Plumber B has a website with a real-time calendar of available dates and estimated rates for different jobs. They also buy relevant ads on Google and Facebook. A is pretty much relying on word of mouth, might be excellent at their job but won't be getting much new business - young people (people under 40) don't especially enjoy cold-calling strangers for availability and rates. I know that I'l pick B in an instant. I've called way too many tradesmen who have answered clearly while driving in traffic and then they start digging up their physical appointment notebook at the same time.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > Do a plumber, a baker, a policeman need a computer to do their job? Plumbers (and for that matter, all tradespeople) can get far more efficient at their jobs if they use computers to their advantage. Modern heating systems, i.e. anything above "a gas boiler that circulates water and fires up if the water gets < 70 °C and shuts off >90 °C" can't be designed these days any more without the aid of simulation software that accounts for the effects of insulation or the variety of air-conditioning systems. The more energy efficient, the more complex it gets to design and to operate. Carpenters these days don't do much measurement by hand - they design something in CAD and get exactly fitting wood parts out of their saw machines. Electricians, where do I even start with these, as modern homes are filled to the brim with smart tech. The only thing AI can't do for now is actually run cables and pipes, but give it 10-20 years and construction labor will be done by Boston Dynamic robots - we're already seeing giant 3D printers for concrete or brick-laying robots. Bakers just the same. Most of bakery, with the exception of artisanal crafters that take pride and charge appropriate pricing, is automated these days - including the supply chain. There aren't that many humans involved in the production of staple foods any more, this is why everything has gotten so cheap and plentiful over the last decades. Some stuff, like picking asparagus, can't be done by robots yet, but that's bound to change. And policemen... just look how much they're using computers already. No more "send a chopper and a dozen cars to follow a suspect", no more stakeouts, ANPR cameras and AI are enough (there's been a HN submission a week-ish ago about that). Yes, all of these jobs can be done by computers, but far far less efficiently - and declining birth rates will put more and more pressure on all kinds of jobs to be either eliminated entirely ("paper pushers" and similar bullshit jobs) or be replaced by computers.
  - inemesitaffia 3y ago
    The police thing, have a link?
    - mschuster91 3y ago
      Unfortunately not, I can't remember the exact title of the article, but there's a number of articles on the topic: [1] https://www.wral.com/story/license-plate-reading-cameras-help-raleigh-police-make-41-arrests-in-6-months/20702950/ https://www.wral.com/story/license-plate-reading-cameras-hel... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34300713 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34300713 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36881133 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36881133
- negamax 3y ago
  Yes they do. All plumbers rely on internet to get their job. Bakers advertise and are found by people on through their phones. Policeman, increasing rely on computers for data verification and all sorts of communications
- iamflimflam1 3y ago
  I would argue that nowadays they do. Maybe not for the actual physical parts. But the running of a business (pretty much all online now), advertising and marketing, communicating with customers - email is essential. If you aren’t able to use a computer you would be left behind by the people that are.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > Do a plumber, a baker, a policeman need a computer to do their job? Yes, mostly. Very much so the police officer, which is why they generally have, for decades, had a computer terminal built into their patrol vehicles. But, yes, modern workers (and esoecially business owners) in each of the other fields often use computers, even if not for what you might consider the core defining part of their job, for parts that are practically important to doing it in the modern environment, even if its just the computers almost everyone carries in their pocket.
gitfan86 3y ago
The only important caveat here is that businesses and organizations tend to become inflexible over time. For example there are plenty of businesses that still use fax machines today. Obviously that is inefficient and that businesses should be at risk of competitors undercutting them. But in reality you'll see that poorly run businesses can end up continuing for decades. So we have entered into this weird situation where Hollywood actors and writers are demanding huge compensation for work that is becoming relatively cheap to produce with new technology. It is going to be interesting to see this play out.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > So we have entered into this weird situation where Hollywood actors and writers are demanding huge compensation for work that is becoming relatively cheap to produce with new technology. It is going to be interesting to see this play out. Thing is, while actors can be replaced or massively augmented by AI, writing by definition cannot until we have actual AGI solved. No matter what you ask ChatGPT, its outputs are as finite as its training material is. And even for actors, people are already beginning to loathe too much CGI, see the decline of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. As long as there are enough people actually preferring live humans, Hollywood execs can get f.cked with their dreams of collecting the hundreds of millions of dollars they pay actors for themselves.
  - johnnyanmac 3y ago
    >As long as there are enough people actually preferring live humans I don't think that's a high bar. Maybe they prefer A class live humans, but there are certainly plenty of "filler" holes that most people won't ever perceive as missing.

thefz 3y ago

> Yes, they did. Or rather: everyone was forced to catch up and those that didn't just got left behind. Do a plumber, a baker, a policeman need a computer to do their job? That's right, they don't. So men with computers did not "replace" those without.

Knee_Pain 3y ago
Policemen literally have computers in their patrol vehicles and a lot of police work is computer work. Plumbers need to order stuff online, manage invoices, have an online presence to get and communicate with customers, have digital instruments that might feed into their field laptop. Bakers use digitalized machines and have their recipes down to an almost exact science. They use computers all the time to calibrate stuff.
mewpmewp2 3y ago
Police definitely needs all the tech it has, beginning with auto detecting license plates to countless other tech they use.
robot_no_421 3y ago
Even if those people aren't using computers at their job (and I even disagree with that), they still use computers. A baker with a computer and internet access has access to more recipes than a baker without a computer. A baker with a website and an online presence is finding more customers than a baker who only exists in the real world. As a matter of fact, the new boiler my plumber (who has a webpage and I found online, mind you) recently installed has computer chips and circuits. My plumber seems very technically literate and knowledgeable about the tech as well. Police offices are now using AI to catch people. Even before, they were using computers in criminology for DNA samples. So all of the professions you listed use computers all the time for their job. Both directly and indirectly. A baker without internet, a plumber with no computer knowledge, a police office stuck using analog tools are all worse off than their tech savvy counterparts.
- jcpst 3y ago
  > A baker with a website and an online presence is finding more customers than a baker who only exists in the real world. I can say for sure that this is simply not true. There are bakeries without websites that make a killing, while at the same time there are smaller ones in the same areas trying to drum up business online with less success.
  - robot_no_421 3y ago
    You're picking exceptions to the rule and claiming that those exceptions invalidate the whole rule. Sure some bakeries are just better than others, a good bakery with no website will do better than a bad bakery with a website. But all things considered, having an online presence always helps your business. A fantastic bakery with a website will get more customers than a fantastic bakery with no website.
    - newaccount74 3y ago
      I think you picked the worst example ever. The success of a bakery is based on 3 things: 1) location 2) location 3) location Everything else doesn't matter. Nobody goes online every day to see "Gee, I wonder which artisanal bakery I'm going to drive to today, and I'm going to make my decision based on which bakery has the flashiest website". If websites mattered, then small businesses wouldn't have the crappiest websites ever.
      - robot_no_421 3y ago
        Wow, only location, huh? Doesn't matter if their product is actually good? And I guess if there are two bakeries in the same location (happens every day in these places called "cities"), I will just pick randomly then. If you really think bakers don't benefit from using computers, then you're just not thinking very hard. I always look up the reviews of the bakeries I go to if I'm buying a cake or something. I wouldn't risk buying something at a bakery without checking online if it's worth it or not. >If websites mattered, then small businesses wouldn't have the crappiest websites ever. If websites DIDNT matter, these small businesses would not have websites at all. I'm not saying you need a good website. You just need any website for discovery. Your example actually supports my arguement - why would small businesses be wasting time with websites unless it helped them?
flask_manager 3y ago
The last plumber I hired had a website, spotted a leak with a flir camera (and had a pile of interesting niche electronics), and sent me an invoice he generated through an app on his phone via email... Maybe there are places where you can hire some analog types on the cheap, but where I am the computerized ones are way more efficient.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
croes 3y ago
How do you thinnk plumbers and bakers order their products and promote their services? The ones with computers beat the ones without. And police is already a heavy user of computers
theshrike79 3y ago
Let's take an example about plumbers: Plumber A has a van and a phone number attached to it. They're also in the yellow pages. Plumber B has a website with a real-time calendar of available dates and estimated rates for different jobs. They also buy relevant ads on Google and Facebook. A is pretty much relying on word of mouth, might be excellent at their job but won't be getting much new business - young people (people under 40) don't especially enjoy cold-calling strangers for availability and rates. I know that I'l pick B in an instant. I've called way too many tradesmen who have answered clearly while driving in traffic and then they start digging up their physical appointment notebook at the same time.
mschuster91 3y ago
> Do a plumber, a baker, a policeman need a computer to do their job? Plumbers (and for that matter, all tradespeople) can get far more efficient at their jobs if they use computers to their advantage. Modern heating systems, i.e. anything above "a gas boiler that circulates water and fires up if the water gets < 70 °C and shuts off >90 °C" can't be designed these days any more without the aid of simulation software that accounts for the effects of insulation or the variety of air-conditioning systems. The more energy efficient, the more complex it gets to design and to operate. Carpenters these days don't do much measurement by hand - they design something in CAD and get exactly fitting wood parts out of their saw machines. Electricians, where do I even start with these, as modern homes are filled to the brim with smart tech. The only thing AI can't do for now is actually run cables and pipes, but give it 10-20 years and construction labor will be done by Boston Dynamic robots - we're already seeing giant 3D printers for concrete or brick-laying robots. Bakers just the same. Most of bakery, with the exception of artisanal crafters that take pride and charge appropriate pricing, is automated these days - including the supply chain. There aren't that many humans involved in the production of staple foods any more, this is why everything has gotten so cheap and plentiful over the last decades. Some stuff, like picking asparagus, can't be done by robots yet, but that's bound to change. And policemen... just look how much they're using computers already. No more "send a chopper and a dozen cars to follow a suspect", no more stakeouts, ANPR cameras and AI are enough (there's been a HN submission a week-ish ago about that). Yes, all of these jobs can be done by computers, but far far less efficiently - and declining birth rates will put more and more pressure on all kinds of jobs to be either eliminated entirely ("paper pushers" and similar bullshit jobs) or be replaced by computers.
- inemesitaffia 3y ago
  The police thing, have a link?
  - mschuster91 3y ago
    Unfortunately not, I can't remember the exact title of the article, but there's a number of articles on the topic: [1] https://www.wral.com/story/license-plate-reading-cameras-help-raleigh-police-make-41-arrests-in-6-months/20702950/ https://www.wral.com/story/license-plate-reading-cameras-hel... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34300713 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34300713 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36881133 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36881133
negamax 3y ago
Yes they do. All plumbers rely on internet to get their job. Bakers advertise and are found by people on through their phones. Policeman, increasing rely on computers for data verification and all sorts of communications
iamflimflam1 3y ago
I would argue that nowadays they do. Maybe not for the actual physical parts. But the running of a business (pretty much all online now), advertising and marketing, communicating with customers - email is essential. If you aren’t able to use a computer you would be left behind by the people that are.
dragonwriter 3y ago
> Do a plumber, a baker, a policeman need a computer to do their job? Yes, mostly. Very much so the police officer, which is why they generally have, for decades, had a computer terminal built into their patrol vehicles. But, yes, modern workers (and esoecially business owners) in each of the other fields often use computers, even if not for what you might consider the core defining part of their job, for parts that are practically important to doing it in the modern environment, even if its just the computers almost everyone carries in their pocket.

gitfan86 3y ago

The only important caveat here is that businesses and organizations tend to become inflexible over time. For example there are plenty of businesses that still use fax machines today. Obviously that is inefficient and that businesses should be at risk of competitors undercutting them. But in reality you'll see that poorly run businesses can end up continuing for decades. So we have entered into this weird situation where Hollywood actors and writers are demanding huge compensation for work that is becoming relatively cheap to produce with new technology. It is going to be interesting to see this play out.

mschuster91 3y ago
> So we have entered into this weird situation where Hollywood actors and writers are demanding huge compensation for work that is becoming relatively cheap to produce with new technology. It is going to be interesting to see this play out. Thing is, while actors can be replaced or massively augmented by AI, writing by definition cannot until we have actual AGI solved. No matter what you ask ChatGPT, its outputs are as finite as its training material is. And even for actors, people are already beginning to loathe too much CGI, see the decline of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. As long as there are enough people actually preferring live humans, Hollywood execs can get f.cked with their dreams of collecting the hundreds of millions of dollars they pay actors for themselves.
- johnnyanmac 3y ago
  >As long as there are enough people actually preferring live humans I don't think that's a high bar. Maybe they prefer A class live humans, but there are certainly plenty of "filler" holes that most people won't ever perceive as missing.