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We're actually pretty good at predicting the weather for the next three days. The point about climate variability is a stock denialist talking point. In reali
by TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
We're actually pretty good at predicting the weather for the next three days.
The point about climate variability is a stock denialist talking point.
In reality climate predictions have been extremely accurate. There is absolute no mystery or ambiguity here. We've been improving our CO2 models for over a century now, and in recent decades the modelling has been extremely good - although if anything it's been too optimistic.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/ https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-a...
The problem isn't the science, it's the politics. We have a planetary culture that puts profit and political ambition - naive uninformed personal indulgence and status seeking, mixed with sanctioned reality denial - over collective intelligence and awareness.
While we have individual intelligence - in varying degrees - we still have herd-animal politics and economics. Our management systems have barely changed for millennia, the same issues and tendencies to self-harm keep recurring, and they're completely unsuitable for dealing with the kinds of problems we're facing.
Darwin is remorseless. If a species is maladapted to its environment, extinction - cultural and eventually physical - beckons.
That's where we are now.
- concordDance 3y agoCO2 caused climate change isn't an extinction risk for humanity.
- sfvisser 3y ago> We've been improving our CO2 models for over a century now, and in recent decades the modelling has been extremely good - although if anything it's been too optimistic. If the models are too optimistic, that still means they are wrong, right? Genuinely confused about this. “The situation today is more dire than our previous models predict and the same models predict an even worse future so we need to take them extra seriously” doesn’t strike me as very reasonable. Not in a super non-linear system with tons of complicated feedback loops. Any pointers to in-depth explanations of how these models work and how they are benchmarked? Definitely want to learn more.