When I think of a black swan, I think of something that when said outloud sounds ludicrous with foresight and somewhat obvious/ reasonable in hindsight. It's s

When I think of a black swan, I think of something that when said outloud sounds ludicrous with foresight and somewhat obvious/ reasonable in hindsight. It's something that will likely get you laughed at by domain experts and the general public until it happens. Using that as a framework, I'll predict something that I don't actually belive :D > Aliens are real, they're here on earth and they've got extremely advanced tech. Some whistle-blower will blow the lid on the whole thing as part of a October surprise in 2024 That sounds like insane magical thinking and any reasonable person can easily discount it. But after it happened (by nature of it actually being real), it would have a rational explanation with telltale signs all along.