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You can't possibly be from the Southwestern US. We're used to particularly brutal summers here, but this year has just been insane, unlike anything I've ever ex
by hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
You can't possibly be from the Southwestern US. We're used to particularly brutal summers here, but this year has just been insane, unlike anything I've ever experienced (and, of course, we've had many "record breaking years" over the past 10-20 years). I already have plans to move north. Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities in the US - I definitely believe a lot of people are going to think twice about moving there now.
There are parts of the world that are already hitting wet-bulb temperatures that are lethal to humans. And this is all just the beginning.
- Xorakios 3y agoNext year will be worse, but after that should be much cooler. The 90 year "Moctezuma" cycle (think dust bowl 1930's - much warmer than this year, 1840's, 1750's and conquistador records from 1660's) is combined with a peak 11 year solar cycle and an el nino, will subside. overall warming will still increase, so 2110's will be brutal, but late 2020's should be awesome -- cooler summers and warmer winters, longer growing seasons, more snow, rain, skiing, cheaper food etc. :)
- Pulcinella 3y agoDo you have a single source for this idea?
- defrost 3y agoThe current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the tennis racket theorem - the uninterferred long term arc of the centre of gravity (gross parameters) is essentially deterministic, however the short term specific orientations of the tumblings along that arc resist exact prediction. You can read more via: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...
- Pulcinella 3y agoNone of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing
- Xorakios 3y agoSometimes spelled as Montezuma, or Aztec cycle. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which-underpin-and-caused-the-current-period-of-global-warming-33_fig3_324599511 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which...
- Pulcinella 3y agoNone of those terms appear in the article you cited.
- Xorakios 3y agoI guess we have a nickname for it. Try this: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sunspot-cycle-is-more-intricate-than-previously-thought/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sunspot-cycle...
- defrost 3y agoIndeed. I'm sticking to the expected behaviour from climate scientists; sunspots and Aztec cycles aren't my department (see my peer comment on solar magnetic activity & climate quoting NASA scientists on their opinions re: .. )
- Xorakios 3y agoI agree with the first sentence and disagree with the second, and the citations also disagree with the second sentence, because we are moving into a downturn phase. And I love the third sentence because I had to read it twice. :) There are lots of disagreements about whether it will be 2024 or 2025 that the ENSO cycle gets cooler but there is zero disagreement that solar radiation will start decreasing next year. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00199-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00199-z https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e... https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cycle-25-look-like-sun-prediction-model https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cy...
- Xorakios 3y agohttps://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Global-Temperature-2500BC-2015-600x438.jpg https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/1... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record#/media/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record#/med...] This is a few years old, but: https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/screenhunter_126-aug-10-10-50.jpg https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/screenhunt... Often when I talk about climate cycles, it turns into I'm a climate change denier. I am not, I have been writing about climate change since the 90's. It's just not that this year, or next, are indicative of imminent disaster. Within the next few hundred years the seas will rise around 100m. Nothing will stop that, nothing will save most island countries or coastal cities. We don't have the long term political will to stop that. But that's centuries from now, not decades.
- Pulcinella 3y agoNone of these sources describe this "Moctezuma cycle" you mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing.
- lttlrck 3y agoI read that if all of Antarctica melted it would raise 65m or so? And it seems unlikely Antartica would melt in a few hundred years? Do you have a reference for 100m?
- rolph 3y agoi read that the moctezuma cycle killed us all yesterday, what do you think of that?
- momdad420 3y ago[dead]