5 ms·

It will happen just slow enough for people to get used to it and not panic. And then it will be the new normal. Humans can adapt to terrible situations. Honest

It will happen just slow enough for people to get used to it and not panic. And then it will be the new normal. Humans can adapt to terrible situations. Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids.

TremendousJudge 3y ago
>Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. Do you live near the coast? If so, "riding it out", might involve moving inland and paying insane property prices.
- knewter 3y ago
  On what timeline do you believe this to be the case
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
You can't possibly be from the Southwestern US. We're used to particularly brutal summers here, but this year has just been insane, unlike anything I've ever experienced (and, of course, we've had many "record breaking years" over the past 10-20 years). I already have plans to move north. Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities in the US - I definitely believe a lot of people are going to think twice about moving there now. There are parts of the world that are already hitting wet-bulb temperatures that are lethal to humans. And this is all just the beginning.
- Xorakios 3y ago
  Next year will be worse, but after that should be much cooler. The 90 year "Moctezuma" cycle (think dust bowl 1930's - much warmer than this year, 1840's, 1750's and conquistador records from 1660's) is combined with a peak 11 year solar cycle and an el nino, will subside. overall warming will still increase, so 2110's will be brutal, but late 2020's should be awesome -- cooler summers and warmer winters, longer growing seasons, more snow, rain, skiing, cheaper food etc. :)
  - Pulcinella 3y ago
    Do you have a single source for this idea?
    - defrost 3y ago
      The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the tennis racket theorem - the uninterferred long term arc of the centre of gravity (gross parameters) is essentially deterministic, however the short term specific orientations of the tumblings along that arc resist exact prediction. You can read more via: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...
      - Pulcinella 3y ago
        None of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing
        Xorakios 3y ago
        Sometimes spelled as Montezuma, or Aztec cycle. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which-underpin-and-caused-the-current-period-of-global-warming-33_fig3_324599511 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which...
        Pulcinella 3y ago
        None of those terms appear in the article you cited.
xyzelement 3y ago
// Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. When I came to the US in the 90s, one of my teachers was freaking out about peak oil and about how people shouldn't have kids because that would exacerbate the problem and those kids would have a bad life. Joke's on him I guess. I suspect that at every single point of human history, someone was dismal about something and using it as a reason to not have kids. If I had to bet, people having kids now are not going to regret it ever.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
  Of course, it is obviously inevitable that at some point the doomsayers will be correct (and, to note, there are also many times they've been right in the past - I wouldn't have wanted to be born in Europe just before the Black Death, or in Rome just before it fell, or in 510 or so just to be in prime age during what is often called "the worst year in history" in 536, ...)
  - xyzelement 3y ago
    Yup however you wouldn't be here today if someone.in your ancestry didn't live through that - assuming your family is from that part of the world
    - sandydan 3y ago
      I’m sure it was deeply unpleasant for my ancestors and I’m currently thinking the world may be up being way more unpleasant for my descendants than it was for me.
      - xyzelement 3y ago
        The point this sub thread is that people always had reason to suspect this and at all previous time it was an error.
        sandydan 3y ago
pier25 3y ago
That's what I used to think 10 years ago. Now I'm not so sure. Everything is happening way sooner and more dramatically than expected.

TremendousJudge 3y ago

>Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. Do you live near the coast? If so, "riding it out", might involve moving inland and paying insane property prices.

knewter 3y ago
On what timeline do you believe this to be the case

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

You can't possibly be from the Southwestern US. We're used to particularly brutal summers here, but this year has just been insane, unlike anything I've ever experienced (and, of course, we've had many "record breaking years" over the past 10-20 years). I already have plans to move north. Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities in the US - I definitely believe a lot of people are going to think twice about moving there now. There are parts of the world that are already hitting wet-bulb temperatures that are lethal to humans. And this is all just the beginning.

Xorakios 3y ago
Next year will be worse, but after that should be much cooler. The 90 year "Moctezuma" cycle (think dust bowl 1930's - much warmer than this year, 1840's, 1750's and conquistador records from 1660's) is combined with a peak 11 year solar cycle and an el nino, will subside. overall warming will still increase, so 2110's will be brutal, but late 2020's should be awesome -- cooler summers and warmer winters, longer growing seasons, more snow, rain, skiing, cheaper food etc. :)
- Pulcinella 3y ago
  Do you have a single source for this idea?
  - defrost 3y ago
    The current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the tennis racket theorem - the uninterferred long term arc of the centre of gravity (gross parameters) is essentially deterministic, however the short term specific orientations of the tumblings along that arc resist exact prediction. You can read more via: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...
    - Pulcinella 3y ago
      None of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing
      - Xorakios 3y ago
        Sometimes spelled as Montezuma, or Aztec cycle. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which-underpin-and-caused-the-current-period-of-global-warming-33_fig3_324599511 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-climate-cycles-which...
        Pulcinella 3y ago
        None of those terms appear in the article you cited.

xyzelement 3y ago

// Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. When I came to the US in the 90s, one of my teachers was freaking out about peak oil and about how people shouldn't have kids because that would exacerbate the problem and those kids would have a bad life. Joke's on him I guess. I suspect that at every single point of human history, someone was dismal about something and using it as a reason to not have kids. If I had to bet, people having kids now are not going to regret it ever.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
Of course, it is obviously inevitable that at some point the doomsayers will be correct (and, to note, there are also many times they've been right in the past - I wouldn't have wanted to be born in Europe just before the Black Death, or in Rome just before it fell, or in 510 or so just to be in prime age during what is often called "the worst year in history" in 536, ...)
- xyzelement 3y ago
  Yup however you wouldn't be here today if someone.in your ancestry didn't live through that - assuming your family is from that part of the world
  - sandydan 3y ago
    I’m sure it was deeply unpleasant for my ancestors and I’m currently thinking the world may be up being way more unpleasant for my descendants than it was for me.
    - xyzelement 3y ago
      The point this sub thread is that people always had reason to suspect this and at all previous time it was an error.
      - sandydan 3y ago

pier25 3y ago

That's what I used to think 10 years ago. Now I'm not so sure. Everything is happening way sooner and more dramatically than expected.