23 ms·

Lots of crazy things in the weather this year. The obvious thing is to blame climate change. But these are pretty sudden and extremely unusual. I don’t think

by timmg 3y ago

Lots of crazy things in the weather this year. The obvious thing is to blame climate change. But these are pretty sudden and extremely unusual. I don’t think this is at all what is predicted. I wonder how much the Hunga Tonga eruption of last year affected the weather this year. I think it injected some crazy amount of water into the atmosphere.

layer8 3y ago
Climate change increases the likelyhood of such extreme events. That's part of the predictions.
- DiggyJohnson 3y ago
  In fairness, climate change does not increase volcanism...
  - layer8 3y ago
    I was referring to the weather extremes. The point is that you don’t need the Hunga Tonga eruption to explain those. Moreover, at this point it's pure conjecture that the eruption would constitute a major factor here.
  - pvaldes 3y ago
    Of course that climate change will increase volcanism. Is the most logical outcome. Well, I'll self-correct myself: Replace "will increase" by "has been increasing".
    - goatlover 3y ago
      Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle.
      - pvaldes 3y ago
        > Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle. And this cracks (in the crust) are normally created by...
        pvaldes 3y ago
        A redistribution in the equilibrium of the forces acting locally over crust and upper mantle called isostasy And breaking the isostasy is directly related with...
        pvaldes 3y ago
        The fact that the earth crust is floating in the mantle over a sea of magma And how much it floats or sinks is directly linked with local gravity... gravity that is a reflect of the thickness of the crust in that area. Or if we prefer of how much matter is accumulated in that local area. The thicker, the heavier, so the crust will sink more by the force pointing down that come from its own weight and local gravity in the area will increase ... Can you see yet where this is leading us, and why I'm 120% sure that climate change WILL come with an increase in volcanic eruptions?
        spiralx 3y ago
        > Can you see yet where this is leading us, and why I'm 120% sure that climate change WILL come with an increase in volcanic eruptions? Melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica causing land to rebound (called iso-something shock IIRC?) which is likely to cause all kinds of tectonic activity such as volcanism. Which is less weight on the crust there, and so a lower local gravity in those areas. Gravity isn't strong enough to do much to even the thinnest part of the crust (about 16km in part of Antarctica apparently) directly unless you just mean it as weight, which is a weird way of using the term.
        pvaldes 3y ago
        Finally. Sometimes I feel like I'm talking to a wall. Gravity was introduced to talk about why we know that North and South Poles will behave in a different way, but you are right. Forget that part. So there is a direct link between climate change and an increase in volcanoes activity and is easily observable. We can expect an early spring activity in the North Pole, adding forces than then will typically trigger a "ping-pong" chain of volcanoes around equator and in the opposite areas of the planet. Has been happening for a while yet
  - klyrs 3y ago
    Nope! Just like the pandemic didn't increase earthquakes. But, when you're in the middle of one crisis, it makes a second crisis even more devastating.
mywittyname 3y ago
> I don’t think this is at all what is predicted. This is exactly what was predicted. Governments leaned on climate scientists to focus on the lower end of the impact scale in public, and leave the worst case scenario for those who care about the research themselves. But this has been a reported possible outcome for years now. Unfortunately, not wanting to alarm people has caused many to ignore the problem at hand.
ben_w 3y ago
Wasn’t that about 146 million tons of water? It’s a lot in one go, but the atmosphere has about 2.5% water vapour, which is a total of ~ 1.3e17 kg.
- b112 3y ago
  The water was underground, in the volcano for aeons, and only emerged with this eruption. As we all know, quantumly entangled particles behave differently. And these, are temporally linked with h2o from 1.8M years ago! Thus, charged with the fortitude of their warmer, more energetically excited brethren, their effect is greater, this is scientific fact, and cannot be disputed, so don't try!
  - lancesells 3y ago
    > Thus, charged with the fortitude of their warmer, more energetically excited brethren, their effect is greater, this is scientific fact, and cannot be disputed, so don't try! It really feels like you're the one disputing the science but saying it shouldn't be disputed. Of course, science should be looked debated through every sort of lens but the extreme events happening year over year kind of point to one thing. Where there's proverbial smoke there's fire.
- deschutes 3y ago
  Per https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37001387 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37001387 it's not just mass but elevation. The eruption was significant in the upper atmosphere.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Thanks for the link. Surprising, as all new (to me) knowledge is.
- flagged24 3y ago
  It was injected into the stratosphere. Apparently adding as much as 5%. It makes a big difference at what altitude the vapor resides in relation to warming or cooling effects.
swader999 3y ago
Absolutely Hunga Tonga. Water vapor has an amplifying effect. See: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299 https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth
jl6 3y ago
It’s true that climate messaging can be counterproductive. Summer headlines saying “hot day proves climate change” set people up to believe winter headlines saying “cold day disproves climate change”.

by timmg 3y ago

layer8 3y ago

Climate change increases the likelyhood of such extreme events. That's part of the predictions.

DiggyJohnson 3y ago
In fairness, climate change does not increase volcanism...
- layer8 3y ago
  I was referring to the weather extremes. The point is that you don’t need the Hunga Tonga eruption to explain those. Moreover, at this point it's pure conjecture that the eruption would constitute a major factor here.
- pvaldes 3y ago
  Of course that climate change will increase volcanism. Is the most logical outcome. Well, I'll self-correct myself: Replace "will increase" by "has been increasing".
  - goatlover 3y ago
    Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle.
    - pvaldes 3y ago
      > Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle. And this cracks (in the crust) are normally created by...
      - pvaldes 3y ago
        A redistribution in the equilibrium of the forces acting locally over crust and upper mantle called isostasy And breaking the isostasy is directly related with...
        pvaldes 3y ago
        The fact that the earth crust is floating in the mantle over a sea of magma And how much it floats or sinks is directly linked with local gravity... gravity that is a reflect of the thickness of the crust in that area. Or if we prefer of how much matter is accumulated in that local area. The thicker, the heavier, so the crust will sink more by the force pointing down that come from its own weight and local gravity in the area will increase ... Can you see yet where this is leading us, and why I'm 120% sure that climate change WILL come with an increase in volcanic eruptions?
        spiralx 3y ago
        > Can you see yet where this is leading us, and why I'm 120% sure that climate change WILL come with an increase in volcanic eruptions? Melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica causing land to rebound (called iso-something shock IIRC?) which is likely to cause all kinds of tectonic activity such as volcanism. Which is less weight on the crust there, and so a lower local gravity in those areas. Gravity isn't strong enough to do much to even the thinnest part of the crust (about 16km in part of Antarctica apparently) directly unless you just mean it as weight, which is a weird way of using the term.
        pvaldes 3y ago
        Finally. Sometimes I feel like I'm talking to a wall. Gravity was introduced to talk about why we know that North and South Poles will behave in a different way, but you are right. Forget that part. So there is a direct link between climate change and an increase in volcanoes activity and is easily observable. We can expect an early spring activity in the North Pole, adding forces than then will typically trigger a "ping-pong" chain of volcanoes around equator and in the opposite areas of the planet. Has been happening for a while yet
- klyrs 3y ago
  Nope! Just like the pandemic didn't increase earthquakes. But, when you're in the middle of one crisis, it makes a second crisis even more devastating.

mywittyname 3y ago

> I don’t think this is at all what is predicted. This is exactly what was predicted. Governments leaned on climate scientists to focus on the lower end of the impact scale in public, and leave the worst case scenario for those who care about the research themselves. But this has been a reported possible outcome for years now. Unfortunately, not wanting to alarm people has caused many to ignore the problem at hand.

ben_w 3y ago

Wasn’t that about 146 million tons of water? It’s a lot in one go, but the atmosphere has about 2.5% water vapour, which is a total of ~ 1.3e17 kg.

b112 3y ago
The water was underground, in the volcano for aeons, and only emerged with this eruption. As we all know, quantumly entangled particles behave differently. And these, are temporally linked with h2o from 1.8M years ago! Thus, charged with the fortitude of their warmer, more energetically excited brethren, their effect is greater, this is scientific fact, and cannot be disputed, so don't try!
- lancesells 3y ago
  > Thus, charged with the fortitude of their warmer, more energetically excited brethren, their effect is greater, this is scientific fact, and cannot be disputed, so don't try! It really feels like you're the one disputing the science but saying it shouldn't be disputed. Of course, science should be looked debated through every sort of lens but the extreme events happening year over year kind of point to one thing. Where there's proverbial smoke there's fire.
deschutes 3y ago
Per https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37001387 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37001387 it's not just mass but elevation. The eruption was significant in the upper atmosphere.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Thanks for the link. Surprising, as all new (to me) knowledge is.
flagged24 3y ago
It was injected into the stratosphere. Apparently adding as much as 5%. It makes a big difference at what altitude the vapor resides in relation to warming or cooling effects.

swader999 3y ago

Absolutely Hunga Tonga. Water vapor has an amplifying effect. See: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299 https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth

jl6 3y ago

It’s true that climate messaging can be counterproductive. Summer headlines saying “hot day proves climate change” set people up to believe winter headlines saying “cold day disproves climate change”.