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The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer
by retrac 3y ago
The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The dark black line that diverges in March is this year to date.
- pier25 3y agoThese anomalies will become more common and more extreme over the coming decades.
- WeylandYutani 3y agoIt will happen just slow enough for people to get used to it and not panic. And then it will be the new normal. Humans can adapt to terrible situations. Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids.
- TremendousJudge 3y ago>Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. Do you live near the coast? If so, "riding it out", might involve moving inland and paying insane property prices.
- knewter 3y agoOn what timeline do you believe this to be the case
- hn_throwaway_99 3y agoYou can't possibly be from the Southwestern US. We're used to particularly brutal summers here, but this year has just been insane, unlike anything I've ever experienced (and, of course, we've had many "record breaking years" over the past 10-20 years). I already have plans to move north. Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities in the US - I definitely believe a lot of people are going to think twice about moving there now. There are parts of the world that are already hitting wet-bulb temperatures that are lethal to humans. And this is all just the beginning.
- Xorakios 3y agoNext year will be worse, but after that should be much cooler. The 90 year "Moctezuma" cycle (think dust bowl 1930's - much warmer than this year, 1840's, 1750's and conquistador records from 1660's) is combined with a peak 11 year solar cycle and an el nino, will subside. overall warming will still increase, so 2110's will be brutal, but late 2020's should be awesome -- cooler summers and warmer winters, longer growing seasons, more snow, rain, skiing, cheaper food etc. :)
- Pulcinella 3y agoDo you have a single source for this idea?
- defrost 3y agoThe current short term (5 year) climate thinking is that conditions (land + ocean temps, storms, etc) will worsen for "a few years" and then lighten up a little with a slight reduction and general plateau for a few more years. The ratcheting upward saw toothing is a feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern .. and the world is just now moving into the upturn phase. Climate dynamics are akin to the tennis racket theorem - the uninterferred long term arc of the centre of gravity (gross parameters) is essentially deterministic, however the short term specific orientations of the tumblings along that arc resist exact prediction. You can read more via: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...
- Pulcinella 3y agoNone of these sources describe this alleged "Moctezuma cycle" that was mentioned and a quick internet search also turns up nothing
- 3y ago
- xyzelement 3y ago// Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. When I came to the US in the 90s, one of my teachers was freaking out about peak oil and about how people shouldn't have kids because that would exacerbate the problem and those kids would have a bad life. Joke's on him I guess. I suspect that at every single point of human history, someone was dismal about something and using it as a reason to not have kids. If I had to bet, people having kids now are not going to regret it ever.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y agoOf course, it is obviously inevitable that at some point the doomsayers will be correct (and, to note, there are also many times they've been right in the past - I wouldn't have wanted to be born in Europe just before the Black Death, or in Rome just before it fell, or in 510 or so just to be in prime age during what is often called "the worst year in history" in 536, ...)
- xyzelement 3y agoYup however you wouldn't be here today if someone.in your ancestry didn't live through that - assuming your family is from that part of the world
- sandydan 3y agoI’m sure it was deeply unpleasant for my ancestors and I’m currently thinking the world may be up being way more unpleasant for my descendants than it was for me.
- xyzelement 3y agoThe point this sub thread is that people always had reason to suspect this and at all previous time it was an error.
- sandydan 3y ago
- pier25 3y agoThat's what I used to think 10 years ago. Now I'm not so sure. Everything is happening way sooner and more dramatically than expected.
- gadflyinyoureye 3y agoCan anyone find a sea temp plot before 1980? NASA likes to pull tricks such as start acreage burn around that time because it was a local minimum.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Xorakios 3y agohttps://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica... Take a few grains of salt. Even 1980 was long before we had great satellite data so a lot is inferred from tidal measurements in European cities
- marstall 3y agoit may indeed be unprecedented - but this type of chart could do a better job of showing that. here's what I mean: we know that temperature has been increasing steadily for 140 years. So we expect each year can be higher than the previous one. And in an El Niño year, higher even. This chart shows that happening. What it doesn't show (clearly) is how high this year is vs. the previous year - and, importantly, whether that jump in temperature is the highest ever, or one of the highest ever, or whatever. maybe it is, but this type of chart doesn't highlight that fact because all of the years are jumbled together.
- Retric 3y agoI agree it’s not great. However, you may have missed it but the key in interactive you can click on individual years and groups of years you see the trends. 2021 and 2022 are also quite distinctive lines. So it’s easy to see from the data how large an anomaly 2023 is. Enabling individual years lines in sequence, 1998 was a major jump from what came before as was parts of 2015, and 2016. But 2023 is still a huge jump which going from past patters will settle down for a few years before becoming the new normal.
- FuckButtons 3y agoYou’re assuming that the ocean temperature relative to the previous year is meaningful. I don’t think that’s true, absolute difference from normal is what matters for ocean ecology.
- twojacobtwo 3y agoI had the same thought as the parent poster. It may not be the most meaningful metric scientifically, but it would be great for showing average people that climate change won't necessarily be a smooth, linear, predictable climb.
- GeoAtreides 3y agoThe black line is the current year, the orange line is the last year, in my opinion you can see very clearly the difference between the two. There are also three dotted lines: a mean (1982-2011) and a +-2sigma interval from the mean.
- drumhead 3y agoWhen you see a divergent year then you need to ask yourself did anything odd happen this year?
- defrost 3y agoOr in past years, or in adjacent climate cells, etc. Check the equations, there are lag terms .. heat transfers take time. The factors here are increased insulation gases (CO2, methane, water vapor), decreased Saharan dust, decreased shading sulphates, changing swing of the ENSO cycle.