The line shown is a spatial average: its value is the average over all (measured) points of the ocean, at a given point in time. It's not a model prediction, t

The line shown is a spatial average: its value is the average over all (measured) points of the ocean, at a given point in time. It's not a model prediction, these are actual recorded temperatures. The graphic is illustrating how the current year compares to the cluster of previous years. It would be more informative if it were interactive and you could hover over or label other years, but that requires Javascript abilities that this news outlet doesn't have. I think I've seen other presentations of this data and there is a clear later-is-hotter trend, but it's subject to the normal El Nino / La Nina oscillation plus random fluctuations. The bar graph is measuring a different quantity: it's ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific (vs. all over the world), and specifically illustrates the El Nino cycle. The reason this is important is because overall ocean temperatures tend to be cooler in La Nina years anyway. One point of this research is that the naturally cooler temperatures from La Nina may have masked ocean warming that would've happened over 2020-2023, and now that we're switching to El Nino conditions, the temperature increase will come back with a vengeance.