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I don't get this figure: how can the average temperature be higher than that of all the years? If this is a model prediction, it's extremely misleading. And if

I don't get this figure: how can the average temperature be higher than that of all the years? If this is a model prediction, it's extremely misleading. And if each gray line represents a year, we can't tell if there is a steady increase year/year, all we see are clusters for different years. Also, it seems having wide fluctuations is not uncommon: I see a +2.6 degree increase in 2015. Climate changes can be serious, but it's hard to get straight facts anymore, it seems.

jsnell 3y ago
The X axis is the day of the year. The y axis is the average temperature across the entire surface area of the the sea (between -60 to 60 degrees) on that day. Each line is a different year. It sounds like you're interpreting "average" as being an aggregate over time, but it is actually an aggregate over space at a given point in time. The graph you're getting the 2015 number from is not comparable. It is only about the temperatures in the limited area in the Pacific where the El Nino effect happens.
7373737373 3y ago
If you mean the lower figure, the temperature is compared to the average, it shows the difference to the average over time
kredd 3y ago
Average of daily surface temperature across oceans, so every point in the plot is basically a day and its respective temperature. The problem is on average the graph lines are moving up on Y axis, potentially causing problems in a longer run.
nostrademons 3y ago
The line shown is a spatial average: its value is the average over all (measured) points of the ocean, at a given point in time. It's not a model prediction, these are actual recorded temperatures. The graphic is illustrating how the current year compares to the cluster of previous years. It would be more informative if it were interactive and you could hover over or label other years, but that requires Javascript abilities that this news outlet doesn't have. I think I've seen other presentations of this data and there is a clear later-is-hotter trend, but it's subject to the normal El Nino / La Nina oscillation plus random fluctuations. The bar graph is measuring a different quantity: it's ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific (vs. all over the world), and specifically illustrates the El Nino cycle. The reason this is important is because overall ocean temperatures tend to be cooler in La Nina years anyway. One point of this research is that the naturally cooler temperatures from La Nina may have masked ocean warming that would've happened over 2020-2023, and now that we're switching to El Nino conditions, the temperature increase will come back with a vengeance.
coldtea 3y ago
>how can the average temperature be higher than that of all the years? All the lines are averages. Each line represents a year. The red line is the current year, which is why it stops at August. >And if each gray line represents a year, we can't tell if there is a steady increase year/year, all we see are clusters for different years. We can however see that 2023, starting from April, is consistently higher than any and all previous years.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ricardobayes 3y ago
My personal experience and research coincides with the graph presented in the article. Where I'm at, sea temps have risen greatly and this also has a weird side-effect: elevated humidity, through evaporation. Currently we have humidity levels similar to Bangkok, in a place which was otherwise a place with low to medium humidity place. I hope this will swing back to normal soon.
- cdelsolar 3y ago
  it won't

jsnell 3y ago

The X axis is the day of the year. The y axis is the average temperature across the entire surface area of the the sea (between -60 to 60 degrees) on that day. Each line is a different year. It sounds like you're interpreting "average" as being an aggregate over time, but it is actually an aggregate over space at a given point in time. The graph you're getting the 2015 number from is not comparable. It is only about the temperatures in the limited area in the Pacific where the El Nino effect happens.

7373737373 3y ago

If you mean the lower figure, the temperature is compared to the average, it shows the difference to the average over time

kredd 3y ago

Average of daily surface temperature across oceans, so every point in the plot is basically a day and its respective temperature. The problem is on average the graph lines are moving up on Y axis, potentially causing problems in a longer run.

nostrademons 3y ago

The line shown is a spatial average: its value is the average over all (measured) points of the ocean, at a given point in time. It's not a model prediction, these are actual recorded temperatures. The graphic is illustrating how the current year compares to the cluster of previous years. It would be more informative if it were interactive and you could hover over or label other years, but that requires Javascript abilities that this news outlet doesn't have. I think I've seen other presentations of this data and there is a clear later-is-hotter trend, but it's subject to the normal El Nino / La Nina oscillation plus random fluctuations. The bar graph is measuring a different quantity: it's ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific (vs. all over the world), and specifically illustrates the El Nino cycle. The reason this is important is because overall ocean temperatures tend to be cooler in La Nina years anyway. One point of this research is that the naturally cooler temperatures from La Nina may have masked ocean warming that would've happened over 2020-2023, and now that we're switching to El Nino conditions, the temperature increase will come back with a vengeance.

coldtea 3y ago

>how can the average temperature be higher than that of all the years? All the lines are averages. Each line represents a year. The red line is the current year, which is why it stops at August. >And if each gray line represents a year, we can't tell if there is a steady increase year/year, all we see are clusters for different years. We can however see that 2023, starting from April, is consistently higher than any and all previous years.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

ricardobayes 3y ago

My personal experience and research coincides with the graph presented in the article. Where I'm at, sea temps have risen greatly and this also has a weird side-effect: elevated humidity, through evaporation. Currently we have humidity levels similar to Bangkok, in a place which was otherwise a place with low to medium humidity place. I hope this will swing back to normal soon.

cdelsolar 3y ago
it won't