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I'm all for decarbonisation. For the BBC, which claims to be a world class journalistic organisation, to omit the fact that the data they cite only begins somet

I'm all for decarbonisation. For the BBC, which claims to be a world class journalistic organisation, to omit the fact that the data they cite only begins sometime in the 1980s is very poor.

defrost 3y ago
It's clearly marked on the graph. There is good data going back to 1880 on ocean tempreture that shows a consistent climbing trend.
PheonixPharts 3y ago
> only begins sometime in the 1980s is very poor The observation that "we only have N years of data so we don't know anything!" creeps up frequently in climate denial arguments. But I am sincerely curious, do you earnestly believe that, ignoring the other methods of estimating these values we have, that if we had satellite measurements going back 100s of years they would reveal that this level of heating is in fact quite common? Of course we do have data that suggests, at least as far back as 1880 [0] that we are in an era of record sea surface temperatures [0]. But even if we didn't, we have countless other observations that strongly suggest the planet is heating up in multiple ways. We also have a fairly good hypothesis as well that nicely explains all of these observations (CO2 released by human industrialization is capturing more solar heat, causing the planet to warm). Yes, when we try to get too granular with our predictions the models aren't as great, but overall we have a nice hypothesis that seems to explain a wide range of observed phenomena over a large range of time scales for different data sets. When you take into account all of this information, while it is important to always remain open to skepticism, it seems remarkably unlikely that what we're observing is in fact common in recent human history and therefore not particularly worth of note. 0. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...
- 7373737373 3y ago
  I wonder: CO2 emissions are often discussed, but what is the effect of the heat generated from our billions of machines? > In 2007 the world consumed roughly 500 quadrillion BTUs of energy and is expected to increase at 1.4% per year. [1] About 90% of this energy was generated through fossil fuel combustion with a typical efficiency of 30-40%. The remaining 60-70% of the energy was lost to the environment via automotive exhaust, industrial processes, and more. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/weisse1/ http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/weisse1/
  - gilbetron 3y ago
    My quick calculation shows about 6e22 BTUs of energy hit the Earth every year, 5e17 BTUs consumed by us. So that's 0.01% of heat from our consumption. Total napkin math, but if it is in the ballpark, that's pretty negligible.
    - 7373737373 3y ago
      According to this: https://scholarsandrogues.com/2013/05/09/csfe-heat-capacity-air-ocean/ https://scholarsandrogues.com/2013/05/09/csfe-heat-capacity-... it would require 6e21 J (1 BTU ~= 1000J) to heat the entire atmosphere by 1°C, so just 6e18 BTU, so with our consumption that would be 1/10 of that, so on the order of 0.1°C extra per year (assuming no sinks)? On another note, this would also imply that if all of the excess energy stored in the ocean (20e22J, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:1955-_Ocean_heat_content_-_NOAA.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File...) would be dumped into the atmosphere at once, it would warm up by 33°C
- nickdothutton 3y ago
  > But I am sincerely curious, do you earnestly believe that, ignoring the other methods of estimating these values we have, that if we had satellite measurements going back 100s of years they would reveal that this level of heating is in fact quite common? No. Where would you get that idea? I don’t doubt the sea is warming, there is data for that. I don’t doubt the sea has been warming rapidly since 1880 (or their abouts). We have data for that. I don't doubt that 2000 years ago the earth was a lot warmer than it is today. We have data for that, and not just all the “Viking village emerges from melting ice” stories. What I lament is journalists inability to give the proper context.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > I don't doubt that 2000 years ago the earth was a lot warmer than it is today. We have data for that, and not just all the “Viking village emerges from melting ice” stories. No, 2000 years ago, or during the “medieval warm period” much later than that that people making your style of argument usually point to (and better fits the Viking villages comment), global temperatures were signifantly cooler than today (warmer than the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s, sure, but cooler than today.) We have the data for that.
    - nickdothutton 3y ago
      It’s all context, so why not show the graph for the last 10K years in these articles? That is all I’m asking for.
      - dragonwriter 3y ago
        Okay, here's a piece with a chart for the last 20K years. Not sure this helps your argument. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4086841-were-experiencing-earths-hottest-weather-in-120000-years-and-its-just-getting-started/ https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4086841-were-e...
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
What is up with all these comments (this is the 3rd one I've seen on this thread) that start with something along the lines of "the BBC which is supposedly a world class journalistic organization"... First of all, it makes your overall argument much weaker than you think it does. If you had just stated something along the lines of "Note this data only begins in the 1980s", which the graph also clearly states, I would have considered it a fair observation. I would still agree with the general conclusion, primarily because there are so many other data points this year, that we are "generally fucked". And my "generally fucked" I don't mean that Earth will become uninhabitable, but certainly many regions will be. Count me as one of the "climate change immigrants" - I'm started the process of moving out of my Southwestern US city because (in a reverse analogy), this is just the tip of the iceberg, and this summer has been brutal, and I'm generally used to brutal summers.

I'm all for decarbonisation. For the BBC, which claims to be a world class journalistic organisation, to omit the fact that the data they cite only begins sometime in the 1980s is very poor.

defrost 3y ago

It's clearly marked on the graph. There is good data going back to 1880 on ocean tempreture that shows a consistent climbing trend.

PheonixPharts 3y ago

> only begins sometime in the 1980s is very poor The observation that "we only have N years of data so we don't know anything!" creeps up frequently in climate denial arguments. But I am sincerely curious, do you earnestly believe that, ignoring the other methods of estimating these values we have, that if we had satellite measurements going back 100s of years they would reveal that this level of heating is in fact quite common? Of course we do have data that suggests, at least as far back as 1880 [0] that we are in an era of record sea surface temperatures [0]. But even if we didn't, we have countless other observations that strongly suggest the planet is heating up in multiple ways. We also have a fairly good hypothesis as well that nicely explains all of these observations (CO2 released by human industrialization is capturing more solar heat, causing the planet to warm). Yes, when we try to get too granular with our predictions the models aren't as great, but overall we have a nice hypothesis that seems to explain a wide range of observed phenomena over a large range of time scales for different data sets. When you take into account all of this information, while it is important to always remain open to skepticism, it seems remarkably unlikely that what we're observing is in fact common in recent human history and therefore not particularly worth of note. 0. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...

7373737373 3y ago
I wonder: CO2 emissions are often discussed, but what is the effect of the heat generated from our billions of machines? > In 2007 the world consumed roughly 500 quadrillion BTUs of energy and is expected to increase at 1.4% per year. [1] About 90% of this energy was generated through fossil fuel combustion with a typical efficiency of 30-40%. The remaining 60-70% of the energy was lost to the environment via automotive exhaust, industrial processes, and more. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/weisse1/ http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/weisse1/
- gilbetron 3y ago
  My quick calculation shows about 6e22 BTUs of energy hit the Earth every year, 5e17 BTUs consumed by us. So that's 0.01% of heat from our consumption. Total napkin math, but if it is in the ballpark, that's pretty negligible.
  - 7373737373 3y ago
    According to this: https://scholarsandrogues.com/2013/05/09/csfe-heat-capacity-air-ocean/ https://scholarsandrogues.com/2013/05/09/csfe-heat-capacity-... it would require 6e21 J (1 BTU ~= 1000J) to heat the entire atmosphere by 1°C, so just 6e18 BTU, so with our consumption that would be 1/10 of that, so on the order of 0.1°C extra per year (assuming no sinks)? On another note, this would also imply that if all of the excess energy stored in the ocean (20e22J, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:1955-_Ocean_heat_content_-_NOAA.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File...) would be dumped into the atmosphere at once, it would warm up by 33°C
nickdothutton 3y ago
> But I am sincerely curious, do you earnestly believe that, ignoring the other methods of estimating these values we have, that if we had satellite measurements going back 100s of years they would reveal that this level of heating is in fact quite common? No. Where would you get that idea? I don’t doubt the sea is warming, there is data for that. I don’t doubt the sea has been warming rapidly since 1880 (or their abouts). We have data for that. I don't doubt that 2000 years ago the earth was a lot warmer than it is today. We have data for that, and not just all the “Viking village emerges from melting ice” stories. What I lament is journalists inability to give the proper context.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > I don't doubt that 2000 years ago the earth was a lot warmer than it is today. We have data for that, and not just all the “Viking village emerges from melting ice” stories. No, 2000 years ago, or during the “medieval warm period” much later than that that people making your style of argument usually point to (and better fits the Viking villages comment), global temperatures were signifantly cooler than today (warmer than the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s, sure, but cooler than today.) We have the data for that.
  - nickdothutton 3y ago
    It’s all context, so why not show the graph for the last 10K years in these articles? That is all I’m asking for.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      Okay, here's a piece with a chart for the last 20K years. Not sure this helps your argument. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4086841-were-experiencing-earths-hottest-weather-in-120000-years-and-its-just-getting-started/ https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4086841-were-e...

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

What is up with all these comments (this is the 3rd one I've seen on this thread) that start with something along the lines of "the BBC which is supposedly a world class journalistic organization"... First of all, it makes your overall argument much weaker than you think it does. If you had just stated something along the lines of "Note this data only begins in the 1980s", which the graph also clearly states, I would have considered it a fair observation. I would still agree with the general conclusion, primarily because there are so many other data points this year, that we are "generally fucked". And my "generally fucked" I don't mean that Earth will become uninhabitable, but certainly many regions will be. Count me as one of the "climate change immigrants" - I'm started the process of moving out of my Southwestern US city because (in a reverse analogy), this is just the tip of the iceberg, and this summer has been brutal, and I'm generally used to brutal summers.