4 ms·

Things have already gone worse for many groups of people. Economically: fishermen, businesses near low-altitude ski stations, mediterranean farmers (Spain, Ita

by mrpopo 3y ago

Things have already gone worse for many groups of people. Economically: fishermen, businesses near low-altitude ski stations, mediterranean farmers (Spain, Italy, Greece, Maghreb). Quality of life-wise: Iran, Northern African countries now have to live with 45-50C temperatures every summer. Disasters-wise: increased intensity of floods in South-East Asia, China, Taiwan, South Korea during rainy season, ... The list goes on. The thing is, QOL improvements based on economic growth often counter-balance these in the short term. But growth is slowing down and warming is speeding up.

jeffbee 3y ago
> Northern African countries now have to live with 45-50C temperatures every summer 20 dead bodies were brought into the morgue in Phoenix AZ every day last week. They have a backlog of over 300 unexplained deaths from July alone. You don't have to go as far as Africa to find unlivable conditions.
- gottorf 3y ago
  To bring a counterbalancing perspective, in Europe at least, there are an order (or two, depending on the country) of magnitude more deaths from cold than from heat[0]. I'd imagine the US, being a primarily northern latitude country, has a similar story. As for the Phoenix numbers, I assume you're referencing this situation[1]; as of a week ago, Maricopa County had 24 confirmed heat-associated death year-to-date, with another 249 deaths under investigation. Maricopa County has four and a half million people, over 60% of Arizona's population; even if all 249 deaths under investigation end up being heat-related, that's still way fewer than deaths from diabetes, suicide, or drug overdoses[2] (reasonably assuming that the causes of death in Maricopa County are proportional to that of the state of Arizona as a whole). That is to say; "unlivable" is a stretch. [0]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00023-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5... [1]: https://abcnews.go.com/US/arizona-maricopa-county-phoenix-medical-examiner-capacity-heat/story?id=101739924 https://abcnews.go.com/US/arizona-maricopa-county-phoenix-me... [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/arizona/arizona.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/arizona/arizona.ht...
  - jeffbee 3y ago
    As of this week it's 39 confirmed and 312 under investigation. The "under investigation" ones always turn out heat-caused or -related, because that's how summer goes in Phoenix. The number of confirmed heat-caused deaths in Phoenix doubled in the three years to 2022 and quadrupled in the 10 years to 2022. A cause of death doesn't have to double very many times before it becomes a leading cause. The crude deaths among 4.5 million people would be expected to be about 37000 people per year, so over 400 heat-caused deaths is already substantial. If it increases by only 20% it will be a top-10 cause of death.
pvaldes 3y ago
Many of those are the same people that keeps shooting themselves in the foot for decades while finding new ways to boycott nature and ignore any ecological advice, fishing quota or ecological measure that does not came with instant monetary reward.

by mrpopo 3y ago

jeffbee 3y ago

> Northern African countries now have to live with 45-50C temperatures every summer 20 dead bodies were brought into the morgue in Phoenix AZ every day last week. They have a backlog of over 300 unexplained deaths from July alone. You don't have to go as far as Africa to find unlivable conditions.

gottorf 3y ago
To bring a counterbalancing perspective, in Europe at least, there are an order (or two, depending on the country) of magnitude more deaths from cold than from heat[0]. I'd imagine the US, being a primarily northern latitude country, has a similar story. As for the Phoenix numbers, I assume you're referencing this situation[1]; as of a week ago, Maricopa County had 24 confirmed heat-associated death year-to-date, with another 249 deaths under investigation. Maricopa County has four and a half million people, over 60% of Arizona's population; even if all 249 deaths under investigation end up being heat-related, that's still way fewer than deaths from diabetes, suicide, or drug overdoses[2] (reasonably assuming that the causes of death in Maricopa County are proportional to that of the state of Arizona as a whole). That is to say; "unlivable" is a stretch. [0]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00023-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5... [1]: https://abcnews.go.com/US/arizona-maricopa-county-phoenix-medical-examiner-capacity-heat/story?id=101739924 https://abcnews.go.com/US/arizona-maricopa-county-phoenix-me... [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/arizona/arizona.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/arizona/arizona.ht...
- jeffbee 3y ago
  As of this week it's 39 confirmed and 312 under investigation. The "under investigation" ones always turn out heat-caused or -related, because that's how summer goes in Phoenix. The number of confirmed heat-caused deaths in Phoenix doubled in the three years to 2022 and quadrupled in the 10 years to 2022. A cause of death doesn't have to double very many times before it becomes a leading cause. The crude deaths among 4.5 million people would be expected to be about 37000 people per year, so over 400 heat-caused deaths is already substantial. If it increases by only 20% it will be a top-10 cause of death.

pvaldes 3y ago

Many of those are the same people that keeps shooting themselves in the foot for decades while finding new ways to boycott nature and ignore any ecological advice, fishing quota or ecological measure that does not came with instant monetary reward.