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Can one know how many people are in that market? When prediction markets where mentioned early during the LK-99 story, I looked a bit around out of interest, wh
by danbruc 3y ago
Can one know how many people are in that market? When prediction markets where mentioned early during the LK-99 story, I looked a bit around out of interest, which platforms exist, which topics they cover, how many people participate in that markets. Where I could find the number of predictors, it seemed pretty underwhelming - one, ten, fifty, a hundred, I think the highest I ever saw was a bit over a thousand, but even then less than a hundred or so where using real money, the majority was using play money. Did I miss the place where everyone is? Is this to expected because the are so many topics you can bet on? Are the resulting prices still meaningful even with a small number of predictors only?
- epivosism 3y agoManifolds main market on LK99 has 4.6k predictors now. This is a pretty strict version, at 33% now by 2025 https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre?r=U3RyYXlDbGltYg https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
- bobsmooth 3y agoWebsite says $1 083 678 has been bet so far. You can scroll down to see all the shares and their prices.
- ant6n 3y agoI wanted to bet 10$ or so, but the two links above both seem to be some sort of cryptocurrency thing. I dunno, isn’t there a way to gamble on the future that isn’t so… shifty?
- concordDance 3y agoMy understanding is no due to US regulations and their stranglehold on the financial system.
- Zpalmtree 3y agothis lets me do what I want by it's bad because hacker news told me crypto can't be useful for anything
- cubefox 3y agoThat seems to be made up as you would have discovered that there is no major money prediction market besides Polymarket, which was linked above.
- danbruc 3y agoWhat seems to be made up?
- cubefox 3y agoHe implied there are many money prediction markets.
- danbruc 3y agoHow did I imply that there are many real money prediction markets, that was exactly my question, did I miss the ones where everyone is or are prediction markets just not that popular and that is why even the big ones do not have a large number of predictors.
- cubefox 3y agoThere is just one real working prediction market: Polymarket. However, it is currently illegal to use in the US, because of old laws. This can be circumvented with cryptocurrency, but most Americans still won't use such a hack. Which strongly limits the popularity of Polymarket, as US Americans happen to be the people who are most interested in prediction markets. There are also the prediction ... platforms Metaculus and Manifold, which are legal in the US, since they only use made-up internet points instead of real money. I'm not sure whether this even hurts their accuracy compared to Polymarket though.
- Teever 3y agough, how come people can bet on stupid shit like baseball but they can't bet on important shit like superconductors?