5 ms·

The issue with this line of thinking is that electrolyzers are very expensive. I've read papers that estimated that using free electricity would only be cheaper

by danhor 3y ago

The issue with this line of thinking is that electrolyzers are very expensive. I've read papers that estimated that using free electricity would only be cheaper than running 100% on the time for normal electricity prices of 8-9 ct/kWh (in germany) if free electricity was available at least 25% of the time. With energy storage for the daily variations already shaving some of the peaks off, I expect this to be surprisingly little energy (not even covering applications where hydrogen usage is pretty certain based on the lack of great alternatives).

_hypx 3y ago
This is a very outdated argument. Electrolyzers cost reduce as production capacity expands. All signs suggest that this quickly become a minor source of cost, in the same way PV panels went the same process.
- danhor 3y ago
  At least historically that hasn't been the case nearly as much as for PV panels. I unfortunately haven't been able to find great timelines for electrolyzer costs apart from https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Cost-of-electrolyser-technologies-for-PtG-application-Cost-data-are-from-multiple-sources_fig2_331335382 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Cost-of-electrolyser-tec.... This suggests that costs fell around 50% between 2000 and 2015. Solar panel prices fell around 90% in the same timeframe: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2000..2015 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2000... (and even faster between 2006 and 2021 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2006..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2006...). Solar cost decreases have been amazing, but for example wind was less impressive and solar thermal didn't scale well.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    > The uninstalled capital cost of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems has been reduced by over 90% since 2001 (and 80% since 2005) https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/22002-historical-cost-reduction-pem-electrolyzers.pdf https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/22002-historical-cost-r...

by danhor 3y ago

_hypx 3y ago

This is a very outdated argument. Electrolyzers cost reduce as production capacity expands. All signs suggest that this quickly become a minor source of cost, in the same way PV panels went the same process.

danhor 3y ago
At least historically that hasn't been the case nearly as much as for PV panels. I unfortunately haven't been able to find great timelines for electrolyzer costs apart from https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Cost-of-electrolyser-technologies-for-PtG-application-Cost-data-are-from-multiple-sources_fig2_331335382 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Cost-of-electrolyser-tec.... This suggests that costs fell around 50% between 2000 and 2015. Solar panel prices fell around 90% in the same timeframe: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2000..2015 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2000... (and even faster between 2006 and 2021 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2006..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2006...). Solar cost decreases have been amazing, but for example wind was less impressive and solar thermal didn't scale well.
- _hypx 3y ago
  > The uninstalled capital cost of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems has been reduced by over 90% since 2001 (and 80% since 2005) https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/22002-historical-cost-reduction-pem-electrolyzers.pdf https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/22002-historical-cost-r...