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> Last October, a Bloomberg economic model said that the odds of a U.S. recession this year were 100 percent. Maybe we're not officially in a "recession" but y

> Last October, a Bloomberg economic model said that the odds of a U.S. recession this year were 100 percent. Maybe we're not officially in a "recession" but you can't look around and tell me most people feel the economy is doing super great right now.

yardie 3y ago
The economy is doing super great and that is the problem. The old trick was to pump up the rates until unemployment increases and demand drops. They tried it and it's not working.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  Labor market is too tight, everyone wants workers.
  - the_only_law 3y ago
    Then why the hell aren’t they responding to my applications.
    - mensetmanusman 3y ago
      On average the labor market can be tight while other areas can have a surplus of talent. Sometimes this requires a reframing of what one’s talents are when applying for jobs outside what one might consider a normal window. Also, I might recommend getting a recruiter to work for you to throw more mud on the wall so to speak.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      Lots of fast food/hotels/nursing homes/transportation/etc businesses will respond to applications.
      - the_only_law 3y ago
        Hell I’ve tried those just to get some income coming in, but nothing. They claim “fast hiring process”, and then it’s two weeks later and I just see the same damn positions reposted.
        mensetmanusman 3y ago
        Tried government?
        the_only_law 3y ago
        Yeah mostly rejected because I didn’t tick every single box(e.g. no degree, didn’t have experience in hyper-specific domain, etc.)
        lotsofpulp 3y ago
        Interesting. There might be an incentive to reject overqualified candidates who the hiring manager might deem to much of a waste of time to train if they are likely to end up leaving within a short amount of time. But I was just making a tongue in cheek comment about how different roles experience different supply and demand.
  - yardie 3y ago
    Yeah, there were a lot of near retirement workers who had their 401k/pensions wiped out by the financial crisis. I've met quite a few who pushed back retirement 7-10 years to rebuild their savings. Now that bond rates are up, they're headed for the exits en masse. The industry that wasn't affected by a large demographic of near retirees was technology. Because age discrimination was built into the culture. Not a lot of old programmers sticking around. They get RIFed right outta here. So while there is a shortage on teachers, nurses, trades, and police there is a surplus of junior and mid-career tech workers.
  - twiddling 3y ago
    something something immigration reform
dragonwriter 3y ago
> but you can't look around and tell me most people feel the economy is doing super great right now. Consumer confidence (Conference Board) present situation index is the highest its been in two years, even though not at the extreme highs it was sitting at pre-COVID, but, yeah, I can tell you exactly that, with pretty strong evidence. Are most people in a precarious situation as is the norm in a mostly-capitalist economy? Yes. But that’s part of the long-term baseline.
jfengel 3y ago
"The economy" is at least two separate things. One is the sum total of goods and services. Measuring it is always a bit dicey but the metrics are doing reasonably well. The second is how much money people have, in terms of its ability to buy stuff. That can be subjective, especially when the objective measures are contradictory, as they are now. Ideally the two would be somewhat correlated. When the first definition is doing great and the second isn't, people get cranky because their work isn't bringing them wealth and stability. That is a systemic problem that goes even beyond today's economy.

yardie 3y ago

The economy is doing super great and that is the problem. The old trick was to pump up the rates until unemployment increases and demand drops. They tried it and it's not working.

mensetmanusman 3y ago
Labor market is too tight, everyone wants workers.
- the_only_law 3y ago
  Then why the hell aren’t they responding to my applications.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    On average the labor market can be tight while other areas can have a surplus of talent. Sometimes this requires a reframing of what one’s talents are when applying for jobs outside what one might consider a normal window. Also, I might recommend getting a recruiter to work for you to throw more mud on the wall so to speak.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    Lots of fast food/hotels/nursing homes/transportation/etc businesses will respond to applications.
    - the_only_law 3y ago
      Hell I’ve tried those just to get some income coming in, but nothing. They claim “fast hiring process”, and then it’s two weeks later and I just see the same damn positions reposted.
      - mensetmanusman 3y ago
        Tried government?
        the_only_law 3y ago
        Yeah mostly rejected because I didn’t tick every single box(e.g. no degree, didn’t have experience in hyper-specific domain, etc.)
      - lotsofpulp 3y ago
        Interesting. There might be an incentive to reject overqualified candidates who the hiring manager might deem to much of a waste of time to train if they are likely to end up leaving within a short amount of time. But I was just making a tongue in cheek comment about how different roles experience different supply and demand.
- yardie 3y ago
  Yeah, there were a lot of near retirement workers who had their 401k/pensions wiped out by the financial crisis. I've met quite a few who pushed back retirement 7-10 years to rebuild their savings. Now that bond rates are up, they're headed for the exits en masse. The industry that wasn't affected by a large demographic of near retirees was technology. Because age discrimination was built into the culture. Not a lot of old programmers sticking around. They get RIFed right outta here. So while there is a shortage on teachers, nurses, trades, and police there is a surplus of junior and mid-career tech workers.
- twiddling 3y ago
  something something immigration reform

dragonwriter 3y ago

> but you can't look around and tell me most people feel the economy is doing super great right now. Consumer confidence (Conference Board) present situation index is the highest its been in two years, even though not at the extreme highs it was sitting at pre-COVID, but, yeah, I can tell you exactly that, with pretty strong evidence. Are most people in a precarious situation as is the norm in a mostly-capitalist economy? Yes. But that’s part of the long-term baseline.

jfengel 3y ago

"The economy" is at least two separate things. One is the sum total of goods and services. Measuring it is always a bit dicey but the metrics are doing reasonably well. The second is how much money people have, in terms of its ability to buy stuff. That can be subjective, especially when the objective measures are contradictory, as they are now. Ideally the two would be somewhat correlated. When the first definition is doing great and the second isn't, people get cranky because their work isn't bringing them wealth and stability. That is a systemic problem that goes even beyond today's economy.