4 ms·

It’s midwinter, but it’s over 100 degrees in South America

32 points by gardenfelder 3y ago

gardenfelder 3y ago
https://archive.ph/nlIx8 https://archive.ph/nlIx8
throwaw1yyy 3y ago
I don’t see mention of the recent changes in shipping law, and how boats traveling near the Arctic circle (and spewing emissions) had a cooling effect. Is there any truth to that? They’ve reduced the amount of Arctic shipping and the world heated up; this is what commenters predicted. I wonder why I don’t see articles mentioning the phenomenon.
- throwaw1yyy 3y ago
  https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-arctic/# https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-ar... This discusses the effect I’m mentioning. Arctic shipping was greatly reduced post Covid along with new regulation cutting emissions amongst all boats
  - pc86 3y ago
    > https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-ar https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-ar... This article doesn't mention COVID at all (not surprising given the 2018 publication date but I checked for edits and there are none). Do you have a source citing that shipping has decreased in the arctic post-COVID?
- rsynnott 3y ago
  > and how boats traveling near the Arctic circle (and spewing emissions) had a cooling effect. Is there any truth to that? Kind of, though it's pretty localised. > They’ve reduced the amount of Arctic shipping Eh? Where are you getting that? Arctic shipping has increased _dramatically_ over the last decade. > and the world heated up; this is what commenters predicted No-one sensible predicted this. At most people might have claimed that if you cut shipping in the arctic dramatically (which hasn't happened) then there would be _localised_ warming. > I wonder why I don’t see articles mentioning the phenomenon. I think because it's something you half-remembered; it's based on a false premise (arctic shipping is increasing, not decreasing), and the effect isn't as big/global as you seem to think.
  - throwaw1yyy 3y ago
    https://twitter.com/hankgreen/status/1687535525169930241 https://twitter.com/hankgreen/status/1687535525169930241 I feel like you’re the kinda guy who needs to hear a credible fellow like ‘Hank Green’ say what I’m trying say to understand. I don’t want or have time to write fully researched opines. On message boards you will find comments are speaking to something true but are not well researched because of the inherent format and time commitment of the writer. There is a great deal of Alpha online and not everyone is going to give you 5 bullet points with all the articles backing up their position. You’ll miss out on correct angles if it takes you a book report to realize the book is good. ‘No one sensible could have predicted this’ There are lots of smart people beside yourself who see things you don’t, abs make great sums of money on their guesses. They don’t need to convince you to care when you seem more motivated to find out why you shouldn’t
forinti 3y ago
It's not uncommon to have warm days in winter down here, but lately we've had wild temperature swings every week or two. It feels like a very wild autumn. We used to have what we call "Veranico de maio" (small summer in May), but this year we've had this in May, June, July, and now August. And we've also had some very strong rainstorms.
- raffraffraff 3y ago
  Ireland had one of it's warmest May on record (several weather stations reported it as the warmest), and July was the wettest on record.
swader999 3y ago
The Hunga-Tonga eruption is a significant contributor. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprece...
- defrost 3y ago
  More, less, or about the same significance as the reduced sulphur particles from global shipping these past two years, the unusual absence of Saharan dust, and the growing El Niño swing? https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-growing-el-nino-threatens-more-extreme-heat-in-2023/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-growing-el-... https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1667965015503126529 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1667965015503126529 https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1669667629844267008 https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1669667629844267008
- layer8 3y ago
  That doesn’t follow from your link.
  - rufus-overhead 3y ago
    "This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O." ...from the abstract of the study referenced in the article. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/202...
    - layer8 3y ago
      There’s a very long way from “could impact climate” to “is a significant contributor”.
      - swader999 3y ago
        Increasing stratospheric water vapour by five percent is not insignificant. See this: https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299
Slava_Propanei 3y ago
[dead]
perilunar 3y ago
It's been a very warm winter in Australia also. But: 100 degrees what? https://degreeswhat.com/?100 https://degreeswhat.com/?100 Every temperature in the article is in the form X degrees (Y Celsius) — neither of which is correct. Fahrenheit is used once. WTF? Just use °F and °C like normal people.
- tivert 3y ago
  > Fahrenheit is used once. WTF? Just use °F and °C like normal people. Normal people don't do that. The US standard is degrees Fahrenheit, so "degrees" is typically used without qualification, and it's understood to be Fahrenheit. If you want to talk Celsius temperatures, you have to be more specific unless the context makes it super clear you're only using Celsius. The surprising thing is they even bothered to use Celsius temperatures.
- foogazi 3y ago
  Not 100 degrees Celsius
  - Izkata 3y ago
    On the other hand the term "global boiling" has recently popped up, so... https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/29/un-what-is-global-boiling/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/2...
- overnight5349 3y ago
  In the context of weather, it should be implicitly clear that 100° is not in Celsius That would be spectacularly bad, and everyone around would be dead
- omoikane 3y ago
  > https://degreeswhat.com/ https://degreeswhat.com/ It's the first time I have heard of this site. I like it already :) You might also like https://xkcd.com/2292/ https://xkcd.com/2292/

32 points by gardenfelder 3y ago

https://archive.ph/nlIx8 https://archive.ph/nlIx8

I don’t see mention of the recent changes in shipping law, and how boats traveling near the Arctic circle (and spewing emissions) had a cooling effect. Is there any truth to that? They’ve reduced the amount of Arctic shipping and the world heated up; this is what commenters predicted. I wonder why I don’t see articles mentioning the phenomenon.

throwaw1yyy 3y ago
https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-arctic/# https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-ar... This discusses the effect I’m mentioning. Arctic shipping was greatly reduced post Covid along with new regulation cutting emissions amongst all boats
- pc86 3y ago
  > https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-ar https://today.uconn.edu/2018/09/ships-clouds-mean-cooling-ar... This article doesn't mention COVID at all (not surprising given the 2018 publication date but I checked for edits and there are none). Do you have a source citing that shipping has decreased in the arctic post-COVID?
rsynnott 3y ago
> and how boats traveling near the Arctic circle (and spewing emissions) had a cooling effect. Is there any truth to that? Kind of, though it's pretty localised. > They’ve reduced the amount of Arctic shipping Eh? Where are you getting that? Arctic shipping has increased _dramatically_ over the last decade. > and the world heated up; this is what commenters predicted No-one sensible predicted this. At most people might have claimed that if you cut shipping in the arctic dramatically (which hasn't happened) then there would be _localised_ warming. > I wonder why I don’t see articles mentioning the phenomenon. I think because it's something you half-remembered; it's based on a false premise (arctic shipping is increasing, not decreasing), and the effect isn't as big/global as you seem to think.
- throwaw1yyy 3y ago
  https://twitter.com/hankgreen/status/1687535525169930241 https://twitter.com/hankgreen/status/1687535525169930241 I feel like you’re the kinda guy who needs to hear a credible fellow like ‘Hank Green’ say what I’m trying say to understand. I don’t want or have time to write fully researched opines. On message boards you will find comments are speaking to something true but are not well researched because of the inherent format and time commitment of the writer. There is a great deal of Alpha online and not everyone is going to give you 5 bullet points with all the articles backing up their position. You’ll miss out on correct angles if it takes you a book report to realize the book is good. ‘No one sensible could have predicted this’ There are lots of smart people beside yourself who see things you don’t, abs make great sums of money on their guesses. They don’t need to convince you to care when you seem more motivated to find out why you shouldn’t

forinti 3y ago

It's not uncommon to have warm days in winter down here, but lately we've had wild temperature swings every week or two. It feels like a very wild autumn. We used to have what we call "Veranico de maio" (small summer in May), but this year we've had this in May, June, July, and now August. And we've also had some very strong rainstorms.

raffraffraff 3y ago
Ireland had one of it's warmest May on record (several weather stations reported it as the warmest), and July was the wettest on record.

swader999 3y ago

The Hunga-Tonga eruption is a significant contributor. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprece...

defrost 3y ago
More, less, or about the same significance as the reduced sulphur particles from global shipping these past two years, the unusual absence of Saharan dust, and the growing El Niño swing? https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-growing-el-nino-threatens-more-extreme-heat-in-2023/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-growing-el-... https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1667965015503126529 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1667965015503126529 https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1669667629844267008 https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1669667629844267008
layer8 3y ago
That doesn’t follow from your link.
- rufus-overhead 3y ago
  "This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O." ...from the abstract of the study referenced in the article. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/202...
  - layer8 3y ago
    There’s a very long way from “could impact climate” to “is a significant contributor”.
    - swader999 3y ago
      Increasing stratospheric water vapour by five percent is not insignificant. See this: https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq2299

Slava_Propanei 3y ago

[dead]

perilunar 3y ago

It's been a very warm winter in Australia also. But: 100 degrees what? https://degreeswhat.com/?100 https://degreeswhat.com/?100 Every temperature in the article is in the form X degrees (Y Celsius) — neither of which is correct. Fahrenheit is used once. WTF? Just use °F and °C like normal people.

tivert 3y ago
> Fahrenheit is used once. WTF? Just use °F and °C like normal people. Normal people don't do that. The US standard is degrees Fahrenheit, so "degrees" is typically used without qualification, and it's understood to be Fahrenheit. If you want to talk Celsius temperatures, you have to be more specific unless the context makes it super clear you're only using Celsius. The surprising thing is they even bothered to use Celsius temperatures.
foogazi 3y ago
Not 100 degrees Celsius
- Izkata 3y ago
  On the other hand the term "global boiling" has recently popped up, so... https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/29/un-what-is-global-boiling/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/2...
overnight5349 3y ago
In the context of weather, it should be implicitly clear that 100° is not in Celsius That would be spectacularly bad, and everyone around would be dead
omoikane 3y ago
> https://degreeswhat.com/ https://degreeswhat.com/ It's the first time I have heard of this site. I like it already :) You might also like https://xkcd.com/2292/ https://xkcd.com/2292/