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If you change the equation slightly and place a fixed resource consumption requirement (take 1-10% of the initial amount to pay to flip a coin) on each person’s

by svnt 3y ago

If you change the equation slightly and place a fixed resource consumption requirement (take 1-10% of the initial amount to pay to flip a coin) on each person’s continuation, and then unevenly distribute the initial balance, it will become apparent that your ability to become “that guy” is dominantly determined by your initial balance. In this version people do not end up at some small fraction of the initial balance but instead they go negative, i.e. exit the simulation to homelessness. The ability to keep flipping the coin without starving is absolutely the primary determinant.

credit_guy 3y ago
With the wrong analogy you can prove anything. In this analogy the coin flip results in 150% your net worth or 60%. In real life, we make thousands of decision per day, but very few people make a single decision like that in their entire life. And this analogy goes for 1000 such decisions. In the real world, most of our decisions are not like a coin toss actually: if I do this homework, I might become a bit smarter and boost my lifelong learnings by 0.001%, and if I don't I will enjoy an extra half an hou of TikTok. The outcome is anything but a coin toss, still most kids go for the second choice. The kids who go consistently for the first will end up in the top 1%, but unfortunately, they'll hear from their TikTok-loving friends that their success is just due to pure coin flips.
- svnt 3y ago
  Your first sentence is correct. The idea that the choice of homework vs TikTok is the choice of wealth vs destitution is a valid concept for relatively low values of income, generally within the realm of working for other people. This is because performance on homework is not necessary and not sufficient for actual wealth, only for a relatively safe employment outcome. What we are talking about is making major bets on all the wealth you have accrued to date. To the point where a single major bet moves the global average wealth. If your homework told you how to build the next Amazon/Tesla/Facebook after having enough money to start it, then it is relevant to this wealth discussion. Otherwise it is just a myth that got you to a relatively healthy, stable income.

by svnt 3y ago

credit_guy 3y ago

With the wrong analogy you can prove anything. In this analogy the coin flip results in 150% your net worth or 60%. In real life, we make thousands of decision per day, but very few people make a single decision like that in their entire life. And this analogy goes for 1000 such decisions. In the real world, most of our decisions are not like a coin toss actually: if I do this homework, I might become a bit smarter and boost my lifelong learnings by 0.001%, and if I don't I will enjoy an extra half an hou of TikTok. The outcome is anything but a coin toss, still most kids go for the second choice. The kids who go consistently for the first will end up in the top 1%, but unfortunately, they'll hear from their TikTok-loving friends that their success is just due to pure coin flips.

svnt 3y ago
Your first sentence is correct. The idea that the choice of homework vs TikTok is the choice of wealth vs destitution is a valid concept for relatively low values of income, generally within the realm of working for other people. This is because performance on homework is not necessary and not sufficient for actual wealth, only for a relatively safe employment outcome. What we are talking about is making major bets on all the wealth you have accrued to date. To the point where a single major bet moves the global average wealth. If your homework told you how to build the next Amazon/Tesla/Facebook after having enough money to start it, then it is relevant to this wealth discussion. Otherwise it is just a myth that got you to a relatively healthy, stable income.