4 ms·
I was worried about that too before making the bet, but I realized I couldn't do it anyway and stopped worrying about it. You can find the whole resolution cri
by asdfman123 3y ago
I was worried about that too before making the bet, but I realized I couldn't do it anyway and stopped worrying about it.
You can find the whole resolution criteria here if you want:
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
- crazygringo 3y agoThanks. And wow, that's as fuzzy as I was afraid it would be: > ...Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists... > ...I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal... However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated... > ...Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities... In other words, if there's any kind of gray area in the results, it's going to be whatever this person decides, whenever they want to decide it. Definitely not something I would ever put money behind.
- asdfman123 3y agoYeah, I was definitely concerned about losing my money to a technicality.