Probably not. Mostly it is because we're still dealing with bullwhip effects from the pandemic, and the interest rate hikes from the Fed haven't really had tim

Probably not. Mostly it is because we're still dealing with bullwhip effects from the pandemic, and the interest rate hikes from the Fed haven't really had time yet. It takes 6-12 months from the end of rate hikes for a recession to hit, and given how fast the rate hikes were and that policy was still accommodative up until earlier this year my expectations are closer to the tail end of that range--and we're not even certain the Fed is done with rate hikes yet. If this strong economy results in a resurgence of inflation and more tight labor markets then the Fed may continue with a terminal policy much higher than we think is possible right now (and that kicks the end date of Fed rate hikes even further down the road, along with the 6-12 month recession expectation).