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There's a lot of wrong with your argument, but let's go down the list. 1. The optimal rate of fraud is not 0%, just like the optimal rate of shoplifting in a s
by vkou 3y ago
There's a lot of wrong with your argument, but let's go down the list.
1. The optimal rate of fraud is not 0%, just like the optimal rate of shoplifting in a store is not 0%, and the optimal amount of crime in a society is not zero. Science, just like the grocery, and the street, has to operate on some degree of trust, and not non-stop big-brother gestapo police state surveillance. Just like a zero-crime society, a zero-scientific fraud society would have a lot of negative externalities that aren't accounted for by 'bring fraud down to zero' paperclip-maximizaiton. That's why it makes sense to talk about what can be done to reduce fraud, but makes no sense to throw yourself off a roof when an instance of it actually happens. It's a statistical inevitability. Look at the blast radius, pick up the pieces, have a conversation about what, if anything, could be done better next time.
2. If even one bit of dishonesty is enough to distrust a system, you shouldn't trust anything. But nobody actually thinks or operates in that kind of insane solipsism. You wouldn't get anything done.
3. What actually happens is that people from low-integrity fields (Politics, sponsored media, lobbying, organizational PR, internal corporate politics) are trying their fucking hardest to use that argument to bring public perception of everyone else down to their level. If they are blatantly lying half the time, and someone working in science blatantly lies, say, 0.5% of the time, and is blatantly wrong 5% of the time, and is mostly-right, but subtly wrong[0] the rest of it, that solipsist from #2 would look at it and conclude 'well, there's no difference'. He couldn't be more wrong, and I would like to gamble on loaded-dice games with anyone who disagrees with me on this point.
4. You shouldn't use a single paper, or two papers, or even fifteen papers as an arbiter of expert consensus. Papers disagree. Expert consensus is reached by looking at the whole body of a field. This requires extensive understanding of a field, which you're not going to get from clicking a few links over an afternoon.
5. You shouldn't use expert consensus as a definitive arbiter of truth.
6. But you sure as hell should defer to an expert, over your own judgement, about non-trivial technical matters. I don't care how smart you are and how many papers you read last week[1], I have serious doubts that you're going to be any good at performing, say, an open-heart surgery. There's a reason we leave it to the experts, even if what they know is wrong. [2] [3]
[0] Almost all of our understanding of the world is at least subtly wrong. That's fine, though, many bits of that understanding are, while subtly wrong, useful.
[1] It's a different story if you read ten years worth of papers. And not just the ones that support your biases. And also spent five to ten years working with, and for experts in the field, making a lot of mistakes along the way. You don't get mastery of a subject by reading, you do it by doing, making mistakes, and correcting them.
[2] What experts know is almost certainly, objectively wrong. But it's often useful, and better than blind stumbling.
[3] If we treated the low-integrity fields with an iota of the scrutiny you want to apply to the lab-coated tech-priests, half the world wouldn't have a job.
- AlbertCory 3y agoWell stated. Inevitably this discussion reverts to a practical one: what happened with COVID? A few powerful people used "trust the science" to elevate their own conclusions (which, to use your #3 and #5, are subtly wrong some of the time) to forcibly silence discussion. We have ample proof that top health officials and top political officials did exactly that. People who spend an afternoon clicking links, to use your language, are entitled to voice their opinions, however ignorant they are. Just like you're entitled to say that the Earth is 6,000 years old. Most people will ignore it, but those who are receptive to those beliefs already will listen. Again, using your language, "non-stop big-brother gestapo police state surveillance" of wrong opinions does have "a lot of negative externalities."