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Population rate is declining, and in the next couple of decades many first world countries are expected to have a population collapse. I understand what he’s s

Population rate is declining, and in the next couple of decades many first world countries are expected to have a population collapse. I understand what he’s saying the problem is, I think it’s just part of how complex processes such as companies and governments expand. However, part of me leans in the efficient market side of, yes there are inefficiencies but once capital is justly expensive, then the wheat is separated from the chaff. If a company could do something more cheaply with equal quality, they will probably try that. Though the larger a company gets, the easier it is to “hide” these busy-work jobs. Further, we don’t know the outcome of UBI. We saw a glimpse of it during covid. A very rough trial, but many people were getting more money via unemployment than by a minimum wage job. Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking. Surely part of the pandemic in general, but I think there’s a human-nature aspect of path-of-least-resistance. I’m not convinced our society has the proper values to take UBI healthily, I think it will exacerbate the existing meaning crisis we’ve been in since religion has started to decline. We have young kids going to nihilism and mainstream outlets justifying this as a good thing. I think the last thing we need is to give people more time to ruminate on these ideas with a slosh fund. In a perfect world we could have UBI, have a subset of the population be the productive earners that can make more money over the UBI, and those on UBI would use the time and money for creative enhancement of themselves and society. But I think that’s too optimistic an outlook. We have foundational problems with many aspects of western civilization that need to be addressed before we add fuel to the fire.

bovermyer 3y ago
If I didn't have to work, I would spend a lot of time building things (whether code things or physical things). I know people who, if they didn't have to work, would just sit around binging TV all day. I also know people who, if they didn't have to work, would probably somehow discover faster-than-light travel or solve world hunger or something. It might not be culture. It might be personality that determines what we do in "idleness." More likely, it's a mix of both.
- dbalatero 3y ago
  I think I'd do both, depending on the week.
- wredue 3y ago
  Yeah. Even when I am taking my mandatory time off work, I spend it coding things. Lots of people project this “you just want to be lazy”, but honestly, that’s not it at all. Hordes of people cannot just sit around and watch tv, as is demonstrated by the wealth of people who retire and then become extremely bored. Contributing where you want to contribute is a very much different thing than just wanting to be lazy.
- intelVISA 3y ago
  Same, my post-it wall of to-do projects that would reshape CS only grows and yet my time just gets soaked up by meetings and trivia. :(
bryanlarsen 3y ago
There's a far more fundamental drive in humanity than the drive to become wealthy -- it's the drive to mate. Those who are successful and productive have a fundamental advantage in the mating game than those who watch TV all day. That's not going to change whether we use money to keep score or not.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  There is nuance. There might be a drive to have sex, but not necessarily reproduce. When women are empowered, have agency, and there is robust access to contraceptives, the total fertility rate declines below replacement rate. High status marketplace participants will be advantaged, but not everyone might value that chase or advantage. Some chase wealth, some status, some power, some happiness. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...
jebarker 3y ago
> Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking. Is there evidence for that statement?
- georgeplusplus 3y ago
  I remember record usage being reported through streaming services earnings reports and or media. Anecdotally I can confirm that is what many in my circle of friends did. I remember I was very motivated at the start of lockdowns but 3 months in I had basically resorted to binging video games for the rest of the 7 months.
one_level_deep 3y ago
A huge wave of immigration from people fleeing the effects of climate change or meaningfully extending average lifetimes could change the calculation of population "collapse." ==Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking.== Is this from your personal experience or is there a study that shows this outcome?
vharuck 3y ago
>A very rough trial, but many people were getting more money via unemployment than by a minimum wage job. >Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking. Surely part of the pandemic in general, but I think there’s a human-nature aspect of path-of-least-resistance. Reminds me of an Onion article that's stuck in my mind: "Man Not Sure Why He Thought Most Psychologically Taxing Situation Of His Life Would Be The Thing To Make Him Productive" https://www.theonion.com/man-not-sure-why-he-thought-most-psychologically-taxing-1843004933 https://www.theonion.com/man-not-sure-why-he-thought-most-ps... It's very hard if not impossible to extract lessons from the pandemic that aren't about pandemics or basic proofs of possibility. E.g., we learned that the economy doesn't collapse during "shut downs" of certain activities, but we can't get any good numbers of monetary damage for a future shutdown choice. We might estimate the COVID shut-downs caused $X of damage, but good luck removing the influence of COVID's medical specifics and surrounding culture war. For your example, COVID-related unemployment assistance tells us nothing because (1) a pandemic restricts activity; (2) a pandemic is stressful and people look to mindless activities to cope; and (3) everyone knew the checks would end one day, but some didn't know if they'd find a job by then. It wasn't a good analogue to UBI.
- creato 3y ago
  > and (3) everyone knew the checks would end one day, but some didn't know if they'd find a job by then. It wasn't a good analogue to UBI. This will never, ever not be the case. Working age people today don’t even expect social security to exist when they need it. How could you possibly guarantee a UBI to the level you’re asking?

bovermyer 3y ago

If I didn't have to work, I would spend a lot of time building things (whether code things or physical things). I know people who, if they didn't have to work, would just sit around binging TV all day. I also know people who, if they didn't have to work, would probably somehow discover faster-than-light travel or solve world hunger or something. It might not be culture. It might be personality that determines what we do in "idleness." More likely, it's a mix of both.

dbalatero 3y ago
I think I'd do both, depending on the week.
wredue 3y ago
Yeah. Even when I am taking my mandatory time off work, I spend it coding things. Lots of people project this “you just want to be lazy”, but honestly, that’s not it at all. Hordes of people cannot just sit around and watch tv, as is demonstrated by the wealth of people who retire and then become extremely bored. Contributing where you want to contribute is a very much different thing than just wanting to be lazy.
intelVISA 3y ago
Same, my post-it wall of to-do projects that would reshape CS only grows and yet my time just gets soaked up by meetings and trivia. :(

bryanlarsen 3y ago

There's a far more fundamental drive in humanity than the drive to become wealthy -- it's the drive to mate. Those who are successful and productive have a fundamental advantage in the mating game than those who watch TV all day. That's not going to change whether we use money to keep score or not.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
There is nuance. There might be a drive to have sex, but not necessarily reproduce. When women are empowered, have agency, and there is robust access to contraceptives, the total fertility rate declines below replacement rate. High status marketplace participants will be advantaged, but not everyone might value that chase or advantage. Some chase wealth, some status, some power, some happiness. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...

jebarker 3y ago

> Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking. Is there evidence for that statement?

georgeplusplus 3y ago
I remember record usage being reported through streaming services earnings reports and or media. Anecdotally I can confirm that is what many in my circle of friends did. I remember I was very motivated at the start of lockdowns but 3 months in I had basically resorted to binging video games for the rest of the 7 months.

one_level_deep 3y ago

A huge wave of immigration from people fleeing the effects of climate change or meaningfully extending average lifetimes could change the calculation of population "collapse." ==Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking.== Is this from your personal experience or is there a study that shows this outcome?

vharuck 3y ago

>A very rough trial, but many people were getting more money via unemployment than by a minimum wage job. >Most these individuals sat around hedonically watching TV, smoking weed, or drinking. Surely part of the pandemic in general, but I think there’s a human-nature aspect of path-of-least-resistance. Reminds me of an Onion article that's stuck in my mind: "Man Not Sure Why He Thought Most Psychologically Taxing Situation Of His Life Would Be The Thing To Make Him Productive" https://www.theonion.com/man-not-sure-why-he-thought-most-psychologically-taxing-1843004933 https://www.theonion.com/man-not-sure-why-he-thought-most-ps... It's very hard if not impossible to extract lessons from the pandemic that aren't about pandemics or basic proofs of possibility. E.g., we learned that the economy doesn't collapse during "shut downs" of certain activities, but we can't get any good numbers of monetary damage for a future shutdown choice. We might estimate the COVID shut-downs caused $X of damage, but good luck removing the influence of COVID's medical specifics and surrounding culture war. For your example, COVID-related unemployment assistance tells us nothing because (1) a pandemic restricts activity; (2) a pandemic is stressful and people look to mindless activities to cope; and (3) everyone knew the checks would end one day, but some didn't know if they'd find a job by then. It wasn't a good analogue to UBI.

creato 3y ago
> and (3) everyone knew the checks would end one day, but some didn't know if they'd find a job by then. It wasn't a good analogue to UBI. This will never, ever not be the case. Working age people today don’t even expect social security to exist when they need it. How could you possibly guarantee a UBI to the level you’re asking?