5 ms·

Glyphosate use vs autism prevalence overlay https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-between-children-with-autism-and-glyphosate-applications_fig2_28346

Glyphosate use vs autism prevalence overlay https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-between-children-with-autism-and-glyphosate-applications_fig2_283462716 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Correlation-between-chil...

Ygg2 3y ago
Correlation isn't causation (Wet streets cause rain). Unless you have some kind of mechanism to explain it.
- orangepurple 3y ago
  More than one-half of human microbiome are intrinsically sensitive to glyphosate https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9145961/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9145961/
- zug_zug 3y ago
  Well glyphosate accumulates on wheat products and ends up in your food (e.g. breakfast cereal) [1]. So it's not impossible glyphosate is affecting us negatively, but there just isn't any real evidence yet. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622992/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622992/
  - marginalia_nu 3y ago
    Wouldn't we expect to see sharply reduced incidences of ASD in gluten intolerant population if this if grain is the primary vector for this?
    - svnt 3y ago
      Unless glyphosate is involved with the development and presentation of gluten intolerance as well.
  - svnt 3y ago
    There is enough evidence that Bayer recently had to set aside $10B to settle current and future lawsuits: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/health/bayer-monsanto-roundup-settlement/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/health/bayer-monsanto-roundup...
mullingitover 3y ago
US spending on science, space, and technology vs Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation overlay https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
- kmeisthax 3y ago
  Total revenue generated by arcades vs. computer science doctorates... wait a second I think this one might actually be onto something
dragonwriter 3y ago
So both have a similar shaped growth curve, but large deviations from that curve on the suggested independent variable are not reflected at all in the suggested dependent variable? Sounds like two unrelated phenomenon with similar long-term shape but no direct link.
- svnt 3y ago
  The correlation is perhaps not the smoking gun OP thinks but your analysis seems to be based on the assumption there is no time lag in the population of children 6-21 with autism and glyphosate use on grains. The most obvious one would be a six year lag. But it might have variance depending on crop cycles and whether glyphosate is handed off through the placenta and/or mother’s milk, and depending on the proposed mechanism of action and weaning age.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > The correlation is perhaps not the smoking gun OP thinks but your analysis seems to be based on the assumption there is no time lag in the population of children 6-21 with autism and glyphosate use on grains. No, if there was just a time lag, than the variations would still be reflected, but with a time lag.
    - svnt 3y ago
      There is variation in the data that could be reflective of that time lag. If the population had no awareness of the effect and no ability to observe the impact of grain consumption on their children, then maybe it would proceed like some chemical process. But the population can learn and change behavior. My point is that your dismissal, in the way you framed it, is possibly just as much a random walk as the correlation in the way it is presented. Neither is conclusive.
whatscooking 3y ago
I hate those graphs. You can manipulate the axes on any graph to make it look like the two variables closely match each other and increase at the same rate
marginalia_nu 3y ago
To be fair https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
nemo 3y ago
Autism prevalence growth may be driven by increased medicalization of society causing more diagnoses and increased medical training to hand out the diagnosis. We have little reliable data on the past with diagnoses only becoming a thing in the 1990s. One should be very careful extrapolating from the existing data since it's not a reading of actual numbers of people affected, but the rates of diagnosis.

Ygg2 3y ago

Correlation isn't causation (Wet streets cause rain). Unless you have some kind of mechanism to explain it.

orangepurple 3y ago
More than one-half of human microbiome are intrinsically sensitive to glyphosate https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9145961/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9145961/
zug_zug 3y ago
Well glyphosate accumulates on wheat products and ends up in your food (e.g. breakfast cereal) [1]. So it's not impossible glyphosate is affecting us negatively, but there just isn't any real evidence yet. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622992/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622992/
- marginalia_nu 3y ago
  Wouldn't we expect to see sharply reduced incidences of ASD in gluten intolerant population if this if grain is the primary vector for this?
  - svnt 3y ago
    Unless glyphosate is involved with the development and presentation of gluten intolerance as well.
- svnt 3y ago
  There is enough evidence that Bayer recently had to set aside $10B to settle current and future lawsuits: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/health/bayer-monsanto-roundup-settlement/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/health/bayer-monsanto-roundup...

mullingitover 3y ago

US spending on science, space, and technology vs Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation overlay https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

kmeisthax 3y ago
Total revenue generated by arcades vs. computer science doctorates... wait a second I think this one might actually be onto something

dragonwriter 3y ago

So both have a similar shaped growth curve, but large deviations from that curve on the suggested independent variable are not reflected at all in the suggested dependent variable? Sounds like two unrelated phenomenon with similar long-term shape but no direct link.

svnt 3y ago
The correlation is perhaps not the smoking gun OP thinks but your analysis seems to be based on the assumption there is no time lag in the population of children 6-21 with autism and glyphosate use on grains. The most obvious one would be a six year lag. But it might have variance depending on crop cycles and whether glyphosate is handed off through the placenta and/or mother’s milk, and depending on the proposed mechanism of action and weaning age.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > The correlation is perhaps not the smoking gun OP thinks but your analysis seems to be based on the assumption there is no time lag in the population of children 6-21 with autism and glyphosate use on grains. No, if there was just a time lag, than the variations would still be reflected, but with a time lag.
  - svnt 3y ago
    There is variation in the data that could be reflective of that time lag. If the population had no awareness of the effect and no ability to observe the impact of grain consumption on their children, then maybe it would proceed like some chemical process. But the population can learn and change behavior. My point is that your dismissal, in the way you framed it, is possibly just as much a random walk as the correlation in the way it is presented. Neither is conclusive.

whatscooking 3y ago

I hate those graphs. You can manipulate the axes on any graph to make it look like the two variables closely match each other and increase at the same rate

marginalia_nu 3y ago

To be fair https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

nemo 3y ago

Autism prevalence growth may be driven by increased medicalization of society causing more diagnoses and increased medical training to hand out the diagnosis. We have little reliable data on the past with diagnoses only becoming a thing in the 1990s. One should be very careful extrapolating from the existing data since it's not a reading of actual numbers of people affected, but the rates of diagnosis.