4 ms·

Notice how Metaculus is a lot lower than the others.

• Ajedi32 3y ago
  Yeah I was wondering about that. There was another, older market on Metaculous which was also showing lower odds than the others, but I assumed that was due to the resolution criteria being more strict (it ended up getting resolved to "no" because the question was whether it would replicate with the first independent published paper on the subject). With this new one though the resolution criteria seem similar enough to the others that you'd expect them to converge, but so far that hasn't happened.
  • cubefox 3y ago
    Turns out the resolution criteria on Metaculus are quite strict, while the others are very vague.