4 ms·

Don't overstate 1.5 degrees C threat, new IPCC head says

33 points by Georgelemental 3y ago

aurizon 3y ago
[flagged]
nostrademons 3y ago
Translation: we're going to breach 1.5C.
- magicalhippo 3y ago
  That seemed obvious to me the day I heard about the 1.5C target. It's a global game of Prisoner's dilemma, and the incentives just aren't aligned to make it happen.
traumfinder 3y ago
[flagged]
- malux85 3y ago
  Downvote for bringing race into the discussion
  - traumfinder 3y ago
    Real talk: Maybe people over 50-60yo should really not have any saying when it comes to climate change. It's not the generation that will most likely suffer from the stupidity of white, privileged humans over the last couple centuries. Put the generation at power WRT to climate change that will need to grow up in it. We grown-ups fucked it up. Now it's time to step back and fix shit.
    - malux85 3y ago
      I agree with you, that’s why I have started a startup on green chemistry that does research on climate fixing chemical pathways. I work a day job to fund this myself, and am putting all my personal resources into it, I am definitely putting my money where my mouth is on fixing climate change. but I think that you risk your important message about “affected people should have more voting power on this issue” being muddied or disregarded, because of your racist language, if you leave that part out, then your message is more pure, and harder for haters to attack.
      - traumfinder 3y ago
        [dead]
        zosima 3y ago
        This is racism against white people: https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1686025436667518976?s=46&t=1H905Q01aSY50fpL7_AJsg https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1686025436667518976?... And there is a damn lot of it.
        torotonnato 3y ago
        It's a truly ugly definition of racism for someone, like me, that grew up with the idea that everyone has, and should have, equal dignity. I know that this is the correct and accepted definition in some circles, but I want you to reflect on what you wrote: is that definition of racism logical?
willis936 3y ago
What's the temperature that accelerates the melting of ice caps to within a few decades, resulting in ocean current collapse and an ice age? People should be very fucking worried.
- syndicatedjelly 3y ago
  The Day after Tomorrow was one of my favorite movies growing up!
westcort 3y ago
The first well-done climate models by Manabe and Wethereld in 1975 found that a 2% reduction in solar radiation would cancel the effect of a doubling in atmospheric CO2 levels.[0,1] This problem has an engineering solution that should be implemented as soon as possible. Stop beating up people with guilt as a “solution” to reversing use of a resource has has become as essential as water. This tactic is as cynical as the bottle industry funded “Make America Beautiful” campaign. Simple blame shifting. As Mark Laynas summarized in his book Six Degrees of Climate Emergency, 4 degrees of warming means Alaska is climatically equivalent to Florida, and population collapse ensues from crop failure. This will occur between 2050 and 2100, and perhaps sooner, if nothing is done. Look at the graph made by Exxon in 1982 in the opening pages of Michael Mann’s book The New Climate War. They knew this 40 years ago, even with the more limited computing power available then.[2,3] But there is a solution in a solar shield to reduce insolation 2% while we transition to sustainability. Ironically, stopping burning hydrocarbons suddenly (for example as a result of a global depression) would hasten the problem as SO2 levels partly suppresses the full effects of elevated CO2 levels.[0,1] I am as tired of denialists as the “reduce reuse recycle” crowd looking for behavioral change solutions because they are more “natural.” Let’s do what works: engineering and carbon market-based solutions that have successfully addressed other similar issues like the ozone hole and acid rain.[2,3] 0. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/11/1520-0469_1975_032_2044_teocts_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/11/1520-0... 1. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/1/1520-0469_1975_032_0003_teodtc_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/1/1520-04... 2. https://marklynas.org/books/our-final-warning-six-degrees-of-climate-emergency/ https://marklynas.org/books/our-final-warning-six-degrees-of... 3. https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/michael-e-mann/the-new-climate-war/9781541758223/?lens=publicaffairs https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/michael-e-mann/the-...
AtomicOrbital 3y ago
Good to see a reasonable candidate ... send aloft either atmospheric particulates or any solar shield to cool the planet ... This is geoengineering ... shovel ready, cheap ... any climate change discussion not communicating this approach is not science based but agenda driven
- boppo1 3y ago
  I can't help but think blocking out the sun like they did in the matrix is a bad idea that will have unforseen consequences.
jfengel 3y ago
Well, yeah. 1.5C is the maximum number that avoided really catastrophic disaster. It's not the threat. It's the point where the threats really begin. And now 1.5C is basically impossible. So we begin to pile up the real catastrophes. We've made zero progress on limiting it to 1.5C, and we're going to be there ahead of schedule. We're instead looking at 2C, 3C, 4C and beyond. And those are threats that aren't overstated.

aurizon 3y ago

[flagged]

nostrademons 3y ago

Translation: we're going to breach 1.5C.

magicalhippo 3y ago
That seemed obvious to me the day I heard about the 1.5C target. It's a global game of Prisoner's dilemma, and the incentives just aren't aligned to make it happen.

traumfinder 3y ago

[flagged]

malux85 3y ago
Downvote for bringing race into the discussion
- traumfinder 3y ago
  Real talk: Maybe people over 50-60yo should really not have any saying when it comes to climate change. It's not the generation that will most likely suffer from the stupidity of white, privileged humans over the last couple centuries. Put the generation at power WRT to climate change that will need to grow up in it. We grown-ups fucked it up. Now it's time to step back and fix shit.
  - malux85 3y ago
    I agree with you, that’s why I have started a startup on green chemistry that does research on climate fixing chemical pathways. I work a day job to fund this myself, and am putting all my personal resources into it, I am definitely putting my money where my mouth is on fixing climate change. but I think that you risk your important message about “affected people should have more voting power on this issue” being muddied or disregarded, because of your racist language, if you leave that part out, then your message is more pure, and harder for haters to attack.
    - traumfinder 3y ago
      [dead]
      - zosima 3y ago
        This is racism against white people: https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1686025436667518976?s=46&t=1H905Q01aSY50fpL7_AJsg https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1686025436667518976?... And there is a damn lot of it.
      - torotonnato 3y ago
        It's a truly ugly definition of racism for someone, like me, that grew up with the idea that everyone has, and should have, equal dignity. I know that this is the correct and accepted definition in some circles, but I want you to reflect on what you wrote: is that definition of racism logical?

willis936 3y ago

What's the temperature that accelerates the melting of ice caps to within a few decades, resulting in ocean current collapse and an ice age? People should be very fucking worried.

syndicatedjelly 3y ago
The Day after Tomorrow was one of my favorite movies growing up!

westcort 3y ago

The first well-done climate models by Manabe and Wethereld in 1975 found that a 2% reduction in solar radiation would cancel the effect of a doubling in atmospheric CO2 levels.[0,1] This problem has an engineering solution that should be implemented as soon as possible. Stop beating up people with guilt as a “solution” to reversing use of a resource has has become as essential as water. This tactic is as cynical as the bottle industry funded “Make America Beautiful” campaign. Simple blame shifting. As Mark Laynas summarized in his book Six Degrees of Climate Emergency, 4 degrees of warming means Alaska is climatically equivalent to Florida, and population collapse ensues from crop failure. This will occur between 2050 and 2100, and perhaps sooner, if nothing is done. Look at the graph made by Exxon in 1982 in the opening pages of Michael Mann’s book The New Climate War. They knew this 40 years ago, even with the more limited computing power available then.[2,3] But there is a solution in a solar shield to reduce insolation 2% while we transition to sustainability. Ironically, stopping burning hydrocarbons suddenly (for example as a result of a global depression) would hasten the problem as SO2 levels partly suppresses the full effects of elevated CO2 levels.[0,1] I am as tired of denialists as the “reduce reuse recycle” crowd looking for behavioral change solutions because they are more “natural.” Let’s do what works: engineering and carbon market-based solutions that have successfully addressed other similar issues like the ozone hole and acid rain.[2,3] 0. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/11/1520-0469_1975_032_2044_teocts_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/11/1520-0... 1. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/1/1520-0469_1975_032_0003_teodtc_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/32/1/1520-04... 2. https://marklynas.org/books/our-final-warning-six-degrees-of-climate-emergency/ https://marklynas.org/books/our-final-warning-six-degrees-of... 3. https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/michael-e-mann/the-new-climate-war/9781541758223/?lens=publicaffairs https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/michael-e-mann/the-...

AtomicOrbital 3y ago

Good to see a reasonable candidate ... send aloft either atmospheric particulates or any solar shield to cool the planet ... This is geoengineering ... shovel ready, cheap ... any climate change discussion not communicating this approach is not science based but agenda driven

boppo1 3y ago
I can't help but think blocking out the sun like they did in the matrix is a bad idea that will have unforseen consequences.

jfengel 3y ago

Well, yeah. 1.5C is the maximum number that avoided really catastrophic disaster. It's not the threat. It's the point where the threats really begin. And now 1.5C is basically impossible. So we begin to pile up the real catastrophes. We've made zero progress on limiting it to 1.5C, and we're going to be there ahead of schedule. We're instead looking at 2C, 3C, 4C and beyond. And those are threats that aren't overstated.