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People said the same about Japan. The '80s and '90s was a bunch of media-fueled "the Japanese will run the world" hysteria. Japan is a technical powerhouse but

People said the same about Japan. The '80s and '90s was a bunch of media-fueled "the Japanese will run the world" hysteria. Japan is a technical powerhouse but that doesn't inevitably lead to ending hegemony. It requires a lot of other work too.

whimsicalism 3y ago
China has 1.2 billion people, I feel like it is basically an inevitability at this point.
- evgen 3y ago
  1.2 billion _old_ people. While quantity has a quality all its own, in this case the demographics are not what you want to see if you are predicting long-term Chinese growth just based on population.
  - missedthecue 3y ago
    Median age China, 2022: 38.5 Median age USA, 2022: 38.9
    - pizzalife 3y ago
      Look at the actual age distributions rather than collapsing the data into a single number. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta...
      - whimsicalism 3y ago
        I see a country with triple the young people we do.
        robot_no_421 3y ago
        You should be measuring that population as a % of their total population. Not sure why you're comparing absolute numbers. China has triple the young people we do, but quadruple the old people that depend on the young people.
        whatshisface 3y ago
        Depend on them for what, the cost of a bowl of rice? What is it exactly about 80 year olds that will collapse a country with a brutal government like China has?
        robot_no_421 3y ago
        Depend on them for retirement, given that most of their wealth is tied up in their busted real estate market.
        evgen 3y ago
        You think that a country that has a strong cultural history of venerating their elders is just going to pivot on a dime and decide to put grandma and grandpa onto an iceflow and cut them loose? Those elderly out in the hinterlands are also the people who raised a large fraction of the youth population while their parents were off in Shenzhen pulling shifts at Foxconn. The other thing to look at in those population distributions, besides the upside-down age distribution, is the absolutely pathological gender imbalance. The number of surplus males under 30 should be keeping Xi Jinping up at night because if there is anything that is going to trigger another revolution it is tens of millions of disaffected young males migrating across the country who eventually get fed up with what they perceive as a dead-end future.
        Gibbon1 3y ago
        It's a mistake to think in terms of the US only. Because unlike China the US doesn't think that way. And if you include the core part of Team America, it's even steven.
        3y ago

whimsicalism 3y ago

China has 1.2 billion people, I feel like it is basically an inevitability at this point.

evgen 3y ago
1.2 billion _old_ people. While quantity has a quality all its own, in this case the demographics are not what you want to see if you are predicting long-term Chinese growth just based on population.
- missedthecue 3y ago
  Median age China, 2022: 38.5 Median age USA, 2022: 38.9
  - pizzalife 3y ago
    Look at the actual age distributions rather than collapsing the data into a single number. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta...
    - whimsicalism 3y ago
      I see a country with triple the young people we do.
      - robot_no_421 3y ago
        You should be measuring that population as a % of their total population. Not sure why you're comparing absolute numbers. China has triple the young people we do, but quadruple the old people that depend on the young people.
        whatshisface 3y ago
        Depend on them for what, the cost of a bowl of rice? What is it exactly about 80 year olds that will collapse a country with a brutal government like China has?
        robot_no_421 3y ago
        Depend on them for retirement, given that most of their wealth is tied up in their busted real estate market.
        evgen 3y ago
        You think that a country that has a strong cultural history of venerating their elders is just going to pivot on a dime and decide to put grandma and grandpa onto an iceflow and cut them loose? Those elderly out in the hinterlands are also the people who raised a large fraction of the youth population while their parents were off in Shenzhen pulling shifts at Foxconn. The other thing to look at in those population distributions, besides the upside-down age distribution, is the absolutely pathological gender imbalance. The number of surplus males under 30 should be keeping Xi Jinping up at night because if there is anything that is going to trigger another revolution it is tens of millions of disaffected young males migrating across the country who eventually get fed up with what they perceive as a dead-end future.
      - Gibbon1 3y ago
        It's a mistake to think in terms of the US only. Because unlike China the US doesn't think that way. And if you include the core part of Team America, it's even steven.
        3y ago