7 ms·

Why are they all from China? Why are they able to replicate so much faster than US labs?

Ancapistani 3y ago
They have a lot of labs, and materials sourcing is easier for them. That’s partially because China is the origin of lots of stuff, and partly because the US regulated red phosphorus as a meth precursor.
- mrandish 3y ago
  Additionally, it appears some of the original team members were concerned about possible industrial spying or leaks and that 'other parties' might be moving to replicate which was part of the impetus for rushing to publish. So, it's possible that some team(s) in China may have already been starting, underway or at least thinking about it.
  - wredue 3y ago
    Where was this? I haven’t seen this, but it definitely explains the drama surrounding this whole situation. It couldn’t have come at a worse time for drama either, as the right wing is currently on possibly their most massive anti-science tirade world wide that they’ve ever pushed.
    - mrandish 3y ago
      > it definitely explains the drama surrounding this whole situation. It was in a Twitter thread linked on an HN thread a couple days ago wherein someone had done some digging online into resumes, publication histories, etc and recapped a bunch of the apparent history of LK99 and the related scientists and institutions. Sorry, I didn't bookmark it. But it contained quite a bit more drama including possible team conflict over potential Nobel credit and a deathbed promise to the team's mentor, one of the initial LK99 discoverers. No matter how this turns out, there's probably a helluva good book or movie in the backstory as it appears to be a team of unlikely underdogs stubbornly pursuing a long-shot while scraping together minimal funding over many years, being passed over for tenure, taking on unrelated side work and having their initial paper rejected by Nature, etc. It makes me extra hopeful that LK99 is at least an interesting novel material, even if not a superconductor.
      - fouc 3y ago
        You're probably referring to https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1684385895565365248 https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1684385895565365248 but the same person admitted they're writing fiction (I would call it speculative fiction drawn from known facts) https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1686217806298423299 https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1686217806298423299
- chrisco255 3y ago
  Well at least the regulations have worked to solve the meth crisis.
ta1243 3y ago
Everyone with half a brain in the US is working the ad-tech and data-mining industries, that's where the money is.
- bugglebeetle 3y ago
  To be fair, China also has an extensive state surveillance apparatus. They just have their military and security agencies run it out in the open at much lower cost. The obfuscation in the US is much more expensive to maintain, but necessary for the illusory veneer of privacy and “freedom.”
- objektif 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - throw10920 3y ago
    No, it's not true, it's extreme hyperbole spoken with the intent to push a political agenda.
- ketzo 3y ago
  I suppose the researchers at Lawrence National Lab in Berkeley, whose analysis and pre-print replication effort is cited in the linked article, are working with, what, quarter-brains?
  - pengaru 3y ago
    Pessimal, clearly those are the full, wrinkly brains.
- ska 3y ago
  This assumes everyone's primary motivation is $, which just isn't true. I've known super bright and talented people who gone off to wall street or FAANG for big $, but I've also known equally strong people who turned it down for low 6 figures doing the research they wanted to. In both cases some are very happy with their choice, others not so much.
declan_roberts 3y ago
One limitation here is the required materials, which are likely much easier to get in China. At least one of the materials is a controlled substance by the DEA in the USA.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
typon 3y ago
You will hear many explanations, but the real one is that the US leadership in hard science is fading. We are too cerebral and cyber - Asia has picked up the mantle now.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Zanneth 3y ago
[flagged]
ironborn123 3y ago
I may be wrong, but it seems.. US labs dont find replication work exciting enough. If the effect is genuine, good, if not, life goes on. Chinese labs are looking to build credibility, so they will benefit by publicly resolving this.
ThisIsMyAltFace 3y ago
It turns out outsourcing all of your manufacturing capability to another country has higher order consequences.
swader999 3y ago
It's hard to get red phosphorous in USA.
pharrington 3y ago
In addition to what the other commenters said, I'm imagining most of the replication attempts in the USA are happening in chemical corporations. Compared to academic labs, the corps have much easier access to highly regulated materials and FAR stricter communication protocols.
lamontcg 3y ago
Argonne doesn't need to make a name for itself, they already are a "global brand" in science. They won't jump to publish a video on social media of the first replication of diamagnetism that they get. They'll be putting together a definitive and defensible paper on the production and properties of the material. That will take longer. And if they can't replicate it, then it'll drag on longer without hearing anything from them, since they'll have to try multiple different methods and reach out to the authors, and iterate until they've exhausted enough possibilities that they feel confident enough publishing a failure to replicate.
0xDEF 3y ago
Because there has literally only been 2-3 weekdays since the LK-99 revelation. Do you expect American and European scientists to work during weekends?
- Eduard 3y ago
  I expect plenty of scientists to be excited enough to replicate a potential breakthrough in their labs on a weekend, just as half of HN enjoys experimenting with the latest LLMs over the weekend for fun and curiosity.
- floxy 3y ago
  The original paper dropped July 22nd: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
fluidcruft 3y ago
With China's research environment things happen really fast--you just never know what you're going to get. Sometimes you get superconductors and sometimes you get COVID.
joefigura 3y ago
I mean it's been like 3 weekdays since the preprint was widely noticed. Labs in the U.S. are working on it and will publish. I don't think the difference between publishing a replication in 3 days or 2 weeks is meaningful to make inferences about the two countries
ChatGTP 3y ago
Because China is a new global super power on many fronts including science, engineering and manufacturing ?

They have a lot of labs, and materials sourcing is easier for them. That’s partially because China is the origin of lots of stuff, and partly because the US regulated red phosphorus as a meth precursor.

mrandish 3y ago
Additionally, it appears some of the original team members were concerned about possible industrial spying or leaks and that 'other parties' might be moving to replicate which was part of the impetus for rushing to publish. So, it's possible that some team(s) in China may have already been starting, underway or at least thinking about it.
- wredue 3y ago
  Where was this? I haven’t seen this, but it definitely explains the drama surrounding this whole situation. It couldn’t have come at a worse time for drama either, as the right wing is currently on possibly their most massive anti-science tirade world wide that they’ve ever pushed.
  - mrandish 3y ago
    > it definitely explains the drama surrounding this whole situation. It was in a Twitter thread linked on an HN thread a couple days ago wherein someone had done some digging online into resumes, publication histories, etc and recapped a bunch of the apparent history of LK99 and the related scientists and institutions. Sorry, I didn't bookmark it. But it contained quite a bit more drama including possible team conflict over potential Nobel credit and a deathbed promise to the team's mentor, one of the initial LK99 discoverers. No matter how this turns out, there's probably a helluva good book or movie in the backstory as it appears to be a team of unlikely underdogs stubbornly pursuing a long-shot while scraping together minimal funding over many years, being passed over for tenure, taking on unrelated side work and having their initial paper rejected by Nature, etc. It makes me extra hopeful that LK99 is at least an interesting novel material, even if not a superconductor.
    - fouc 3y ago
      You're probably referring to https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1684385895565365248 https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1684385895565365248 but the same person admitted they're writing fiction (I would call it speculative fiction drawn from known facts) https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1686217806298423299 https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1686217806298423299
chrisco255 3y ago
Well at least the regulations have worked to solve the meth crisis.

ta1243 3y ago

Everyone with half a brain in the US is working the ad-tech and data-mining industries, that's where the money is.

bugglebeetle 3y ago
To be fair, China also has an extensive state surveillance apparatus. They just have their military and security agencies run it out in the open at much lower cost. The obfuscation in the US is much more expensive to maintain, but necessary for the illusory veneer of privacy and “freedom.”
objektif 3y ago
[flagged]
- throw10920 3y ago
  No, it's not true, it's extreme hyperbole spoken with the intent to push a political agenda.
ketzo 3y ago
I suppose the researchers at Lawrence National Lab in Berkeley, whose analysis and pre-print replication effort is cited in the linked article, are working with, what, quarter-brains?
- pengaru 3y ago
  Pessimal, clearly those are the full, wrinkly brains.
ska 3y ago
This assumes everyone's primary motivation is $, which just isn't true. I've known super bright and talented people who gone off to wall street or FAANG for big $, but I've also known equally strong people who turned it down for low 6 figures doing the research they wanted to. In both cases some are very happy with their choice, others not so much.

declan_roberts 3y ago

One limitation here is the required materials, which are likely much easier to get in China. At least one of the materials is a controlled substance by the DEA in the USA.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

typon 3y ago

You will hear many explanations, but the real one is that the US leadership in hard science is fading. We are too cerebral and cyber - Asia has picked up the mantle now.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Zanneth 3y ago

[flagged]

ironborn123 3y ago

I may be wrong, but it seems.. US labs dont find replication work exciting enough. If the effect is genuine, good, if not, life goes on. Chinese labs are looking to build credibility, so they will benefit by publicly resolving this.

ThisIsMyAltFace 3y ago

It turns out outsourcing all of your manufacturing capability to another country has higher order consequences.

swader999 3y ago

It's hard to get red phosphorous in USA.

pharrington 3y ago

In addition to what the other commenters said, I'm imagining most of the replication attempts in the USA are happening in chemical corporations. Compared to academic labs, the corps have much easier access to highly regulated materials and FAR stricter communication protocols.

lamontcg 3y ago

Argonne doesn't need to make a name for itself, they already are a "global brand" in science. They won't jump to publish a video on social media of the first replication of diamagnetism that they get. They'll be putting together a definitive and defensible paper on the production and properties of the material. That will take longer. And if they can't replicate it, then it'll drag on longer without hearing anything from them, since they'll have to try multiple different methods and reach out to the authors, and iterate until they've exhausted enough possibilities that they feel confident enough publishing a failure to replicate.

0xDEF 3y ago

Because there has literally only been 2-3 weekdays since the LK-99 revelation. Do you expect American and European scientists to work during weekends?

Eduard 3y ago
I expect plenty of scientists to be excited enough to replicate a potential breakthrough in their labs on a weekend, just as half of HN enjoys experimenting with the latest LLMs over the weekend for fun and curiosity.
floxy 3y ago
The original paper dropped July 22nd: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

fluidcruft 3y ago

With China's research environment things happen really fast--you just never know what you're going to get. Sometimes you get superconductors and sometimes you get COVID.

joefigura 3y ago

I mean it's been like 3 weekdays since the preprint was widely noticed. Labs in the U.S. are working on it and will publish. I don't think the difference between publishing a replication in 3 days or 2 weeks is meaningful to make inferences about the two countries

ChatGTP 3y ago

Because China is a new global super power on many fronts including science, engineering and manufacturing ?