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The raven paradox is not that mysterious in my opinion, observing non-black non-ravens is indeed support for all ravens being black. How do you check that all r
by danbruc 3y ago
The raven paradox is not that mysterious in my opinion, observing non-black non-ravens is indeed support for all ravens being black. How do you check that all ravens are black? From the set of all objects in the universe you select all objects of type raven and then check for each one that it is black. Or you do it the other way around, you select all non-black objects and then check for each one that it is not of type raven. Same result. [1] The cardinality of the two sets - all ravens and all non-black objects - will however be vastly different and I would certainly much prefer manually checking the list of all ravens.
I think it is this disparity that makes us intuitively dismissive of the idea that seeing green apples helps us in any way with the color of ravens. And we might maybe also have some bias in our way of thinking - do you first see that a thing is a apple and then that it is red, or do you first see that it is a red thing and then that it is an apple? Ad hoc I would say that color usually comes second especially as we can essentially paint any object in any color we like, for example a blue apple. Color seems to only be the primary attribute if one can not clearly identify something, than it becomes just a red thing in the distance.
[1] Also note that in both variants we ignore black non-ravens, in the first variant because they are not ravens, in the second one because they are not non-black.