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How does Bayesian reasoning fit into this? To go with the introductory example, having seen the sun go up ~ 11000 times in my lifetime can never prove that it w
by lvncelot 3y ago
How does Bayesian reasoning fit into this? To go with the introductory example, having seen the sun go up ~ 11000 times in my lifetime can never prove that it will go up tomorrow, but every time it does go up, I adjust my priors for expecting the sun to go up the next day, and assign it a bit more likeliness.
- ozy 3y agoI think a discussion on induction is best done by splitting the resulting models in two: models based on statistics, and models based on (abstract/iconic) simulation. (Eg all swans are white vs all swans lay eggs.) Since our reality is "atoms and void", and since the sun and earth are huge configurations of atoms locked together in a stable pattern, the sun coming up tomorrow has nothing to do with statistics. And bayesian reasoning plays no role in our predictions or certainty. At least not directly. It does indirectly, by asking what perturbation, what intervention, can stop this from happening? And how likely are such events?