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The benefit of the Bayesian approach is the need to explicitly state a prior distribution, in this case, you would need to state the prior probability that all
by jmpeax 3y ago
The benefit of the Bayesian approach is the need to explicitly state a prior distribution, in this case, you would need to state the prior probability that all ravens are black. This forces us to realise that induction does not prove anything, and reduces to the matter of having the evolutionarily-gifted skill of coming up with good priors.
- staunton 3y ago> induction does not prove anything Another benefit of a Bayesian approach is that you stop trying to "prove" things.
- ThomPete 3y agoBayenism is great for things that doesn't require explanations it's horrible as a method for knowledge creation.
- jmpeax 3y agoBayesianism is the only reliable way of creating knowledge, as it is the direct application of the mathematics of probability. All frequentism can do is tell you how poorly your data fits an unrealistic straw-man model.
- ThomPete 3y agoProbability is not knowledge creation.
- jmpeax 3y agoThen you must reject all science, as the knowledge gained is based on probabilistic experiments.
- ThomPete 3y agoNo science is based on explanations that are hard to vary (i.e. explain what they purport to without any competing explanations). We use scientific experimentations not to prove but to rule out alternative theories. I can explain why a given thing will act a certain way. I don't need probabilities for that. If I need probability it's because I am just guessing and nothing else. If I need them I am just dressing up guessing in fancy words. But I am just that.