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Obviously, there are strategies to handle the shortage in the long term. Right now, there is a shortage. If there is a shortage of hammers, one cannot just cla
by mcculley 3y ago
Obviously, there are strategies to handle the shortage in the long term.
Right now, there is a shortage. If there is a shortage of hammers, one cannot just claim that the shortage does not exist because we can eventually make more hammers.
> Why weren't people trying to become tugboat captains for the past X years? Is it because the job paid too much?
The recent rollout of USCG Subchapter M has created significant demand while not increasing the available supply. I agree that industry and government should have realized this would happen.
- rileymat2 3y agoI think there is a semantic game being played because increased prices depresses demand. So in some views a shortage is almost always a fiction. Think of it this way, gold has a high price, so I only use it in valuable ways, I don’t gold plate my house. If gold was significantly cheaper maybe I would, is there a shortage? Clearly there is a shortage at the price I would pay to gold plate my house. But I am fine using it for jewelry, no shortage at that price. Your hammer example is the same, there are insufficient hammers at a certain price. Raising price will decrease demand and eliminate the shortage. This increase makes its way through the supply chain increasing prices along the way until demand goes down. Of course this semantic argument is pointless because what people really want is access to the products they are accustomed to at a price they are accustomed to.
- mcculley 3y agoAt this point, there are insufficient captains/hammers at any price. Lots of projects are blocked on lack of captains. I am selling tugboats because we cannot crew them. This is a direct result of USCG Subchapter M. edit to add: This whole thread now feels like defense of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. We have an entire industry facing a stricter regulatory framework that increased demand for captains while fewer humans are being born in the U.S. This is a shortage. I get that one can just increase wages and immediately get more cashiers or burger flippers. Other problems have more complicated dependencies. edit more to add: I realize now I did not fully appreciating your argument, which is that there is never a shortage of anything?
- reaperman 3y agoHow much can I expect to earn with you after I successfully spend 3 years training to be a tugboat captain? How much would I make in the meantime while I was an unlicensed deckhand? Asking very seriously.
- mcculley 3y agoI don’t know what you would make as a captain three years from now. Note that it would very likely take longer for one to become a captain. Three years is the fastest theoretically, which would require continuous time at sea. Right now, captains with Master of Towing endorsement are getting $800-$1,200 per day, depending on the region and type of work. Deckhands on a track to become captains are getting $300-$500 per day. I would pay more for the right candidates.
- sangnoir 3y ago> At this point, there are insufficient captains/hammers at any price. I bet you could bring captains out of retirement at the eight price. You're just not there (yet).
- mcculley 3y agoMost of the captains who are retired will not be able to get their annual medical certificate. Not every job is like a desk job where we can just add more money and get more COBOL programmers back out of retirement.